Friday, February 14, 2020

Norway January 2020

Resultado de imagem para audi e-Tron

Audi e-Tron starts in the lead

PEV Sales were up a solid 31% in January, to 6.155 units, with both powertrains improving their market share, with BEVs growing from 38% a year ago to the current 44%, while PHEVs went up from 14%, to the current 20%, so things are looking good, leading to a large PEV (64%) share, and if we include HEVs to the tally, we have 79% of the Norwegian market now electrified (versus 64% a year ago), and this is in a off-peak month for the Tesla Model 3, so numbers could be even more outlandish in March, possibly even reaching 80% plugin share!

In this context, i'm wondering if Norway will get any 90% PEV share month, towards the end of the year...

Anyway, the fuels mix now shows BEVs well above everyone else (44% share), followed by PHEVs (20%) and HEVs (12%), while diesel (11%, down from 18% in January '19) and gasoline (10%, down from 19%) are shrinking fast, so we might see regular ICE sales become extinct in Norway by 2021...With HEVs following suit a couple of years later.


Looking at the January ranking, there are significant news on top, with the Audi e-Tron starting 2020 in the lead, being the second time the Big Audi wins a monthly title (the first had been last October), thanks to a record 902 registrations, with the German Crossover almost doubling the number of registrations of the runner-up Renualt Zoe, itself a surprising Silver Medalist, with a record 533 units, being only the third time the French hatchback reached the podium in Norway (the other two had been in June '17 and January '18), and its first Silver Medal, after two Bronzes.

The VW e-Golf ended the month in 3rd, so it seems the veteran model will leave the market on a high note, despite its superior sucessor, the VW ID.3, being just a few months away from landing.

Interestingly, all the Top 5 spots belong to BEVs, which says a lot on where the market is going...

Elsewhere, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is now seeing its lead on the plugin hybrid field being threatened by the new BMW X5 PHEV, that is less than 100 units away from the Japanese SUV. 

The German SUV is experiencing a strong demand, which proves that the formula "bigger battery = bigger sales" is also true on the PHEV field, and with its arch rival Mercedes GLE350de still in "demo mode", the Bimmer is profiting to reach record highs.

It seems Mercedes is deep in "Battery Hell", not only the new GLE plugin hybrid is stuck in symbolic outputs, but the all-electric EQC (remember it?) is far from being delivered in volume amounts, in January the midsize SUV hit a record...67 deliveries. And let's not even mention the ever delayed Mercedes A & B-Class PHEVs...

A mention to the record 107 deliveries of the BMW 530e, allowing it a Top 20 spot, in #16, now with a (slightly) bigger battery and AWD now available as an option, the BMW's sedan is now the leader in its category.

The Kia Soul EV closes the Top 20, with 90 registrations, its best performance since 2018, so it seems Kia has now enough batteries to supply the small crossover in larger volumes.

Finally, we have three new faces on the Top 20, the Skoda Superb PHEV was #19, with 92 units, and the small Seat e-Mii and Skoda Citigo EV landing inside the Top 20, if we add all registrations of the VW city triplets (VW e-Up!, Seat e-Mii EV and Skoda Citigo, we get 348 units, which would place it in #6 in the ranking, not bad for a city car, right?

In the manufacturers ranking, Audi (16%) started in the lead, being followed by Volkswagen (11%), and BMW (10%), with the #4 Hyundai and #5 Renault not far behind, both with 9% share.


Models breakdown by Fuel Source


The plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have five BEVs in the Top 5, followed a balanced mix of plugins, with 1 BEV, 2 PHEVs and two HEVs, but the telling story is that the Best Selling HEV (Toyota RAV4) was only #7, with the other Top 10 hybrid (Toyota Corolla) ending behind it.

With regular ICE models now being regularly wiped out from the Top 10, and the Best Selling HEV only #7, will we see a 100% plug-in Top 10 soon? Let's say...March? 

But i guess that for a regular 100% pluggable Top 10, we will have to wait for the PHEV version of the Toyota RAV4, as the Crossover Toyota is one of Norway's darlings and will be hard to keep it outside this Top 10...

22 comments:

  1. WOW. Nice.

    ICE vehicles were out of the Top 18, at least. Maybe even out of the Top 20.
    (No ICEVs in the Top 20 from OFVAS, but the BMW 330 and VW Passat, when considered in PHEV version alone, might slip out of the Top 20. (We don't know the sales of the cars in the next spots)).

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    1. Number 6,7,8 and 9 are ICE vehicles. But only 4 ICE models in the top 10 is not bad at all.

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  2. If the PSA models would be abundant,the ICE market could be closed now.

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  3. E-Tron-50 57k USD start+large deliveries=902. "bigger battery = bigger sales".I do not think this is a good slogan.

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  4. Less battery+more efficiency.This is what need.

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    1. Sure, better efficiency has many advantages... But there is just so much you can do on that front -- to get decent range, you still need a large battery.

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    2. I meant the mass of the battery.

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  5. Kinda crazy that even just delivering the leftovers from last quarter, Model 3 still tops many many other models, such as the I-Pace for example...

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    1. Strange.There are sales in February without deliveries.Why not bought up in December?

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  6. EQC record deliveries of 67 units... Ouch! ;-)

    Weird thing is that supposedly they managed to build some 7,000 EQCs in 2019 (instead of the planned 20,000 or so), yet there seem to be virtually no deliveries anywhere -- so one has to wonder where those cars went?

    (Where are the parking lot truthers when you need them?! ;-) )

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    1. At least, 548 EQC were registered in Germany last year, yet no one mentioned about them. Since EVs in Norway sell way better than in Germany, I will not be surprised if there are already the same amout of EQCs in Norway too.

      written by Looney Tunes

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    2. :)Yes,I do not understand also where 7000.

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    3. @Antrik: I am also scrambling to understand that one.

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    4. ... how about China, as the biggest receiver of them?

      written by Looney Tunes

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  7. Where is the Niro? Really weird that there is nothing between the tiny Kona and the rather large/expensive e-tron (and I-Pace) -- although one would expect this to be the hottest segment...

    Even when Kia decided to delay deliveries into 2020, I would have expected a bunch of cars waiting ready for delivery to eager customers at the beginning of the year...

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  8. @José just like last year, I think you are being too optimistic: in order for PEVs to hit 90% in any month, PEV sales would have to more than triple, or sales of plug-less cars would have to crash precipitously. I can't think of any trigger for the latter. The former *might* happen in theory, if the government decides not to extend EV subsidies beyond the end of this year -- but let's hope that doesn't happen...

    80% in record months on the other hand seems more in the realm of the possible this year :-)

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    1. Antrik - I think you've mis-read the top line numbers. January BEV = 44 % and PHEV = 20 % market shares. So the total PEV market share in January is 64 %.

      To reach 90% market share, non-pug-in sales would need to fall by 70% (36% -> 10%) while PEVs would need to grow by less than 50% (64->90).

      Keeping track of percents upon percents is always confusing!

      There is room to grow here because this is an off-month for Tesla, whose shipments are very irregular. Look for February and March to see much higher Model 3 numbers.

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    2. With PEV share hitting 64%, why would PEV sales have to 'more than triple' for PEVs to hit 90% in any month?

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    3. @Josh if the 64% were for example 6,400 EVs, and the 36% were 3,600 combustion cars, in order for EVs to reach 90% without combustion car sales falling, It would need 32,400 EV sales. (I.e. actually quintupling sales -- *way* more than tripling...)

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    4. @antrik okay, I defaulted to my assumption that the overall market would continue to shrink slightly, while PEV sales would grow, and with anomalous months thanks to Tesla we could well see months with a PEV share as high as 90%. But I see what you're saying now.

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  9. Nice of the Norweigns. Bravo.
    Electric, plugin, hybrid pushed diesel & petrol to #4 & #5 places with just 11% & 10% shares.
    A full hybrid with 1,5 KWh battery can still go 30-40 % extra distance and if the whole world switched to full hybrids, then the oil consumption will be just 65 million b/d instead of 100 million b/d.

    This should be told to everyone. Nice way to start the year. All this in a 1st month of the quarter where Tesla presence is minimal.

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