Europe July 2020

(Another) Record Month 

The European passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered over 113,000 registrations in July (+213% YoY, highest growth rate in 5 years), the market's second record performance in a row, after the 93,000 registrations of June, placing last month plugin share at 8.7% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 8% (4.2% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019 and getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

This sales push is benefiting BEVs (53,694 units, +123% YoY and all-time record), but especially PHEVs, whose sales are jumping through the roof (+390%!), tilting the BEV/PHEV breakdown towards plugin hybrids, as they had 53% of the registrations in July, versus 47% in the YTD tally.

With September set to be another record month, it is starting to be realistic the prospect of seeing Europe's plugin market share end 2020 at 10%...

...And then it would be #Disruption '21!

With production in full speed mode and orders coming in large volumes, the Renault Zoe was again last month Best Seller, and with Renault now earning a fat profit on each one of them, expect the French car maker to continue activelly selling/milking the small hatchback in the coming months.

This Zoe win in July, added to the fresh units drought of the Tesla Model 3 in July, allowed the French EV to win a sizeable (12,000 units) advance over the Californian, that should only be able to reduced significantly in the Super-September month, the time where the much hyped VW ID.3 (finally) lands, trying to immediately secure the 3rd spot. 

Interestingly, we have one new face in the Top 5, with the Hyundai Kona EV only now joining the Best Sellers list, despite being one of the most interesting EVs around. 

Looking at June Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The record 9,388 deliveries in July are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, thanks to the recent incentive changes in a number of European markets, that added to the recent production ramp up at the Flins factory, allowed the Renault EV to benefit from a perfect storm (> incentives; > orders; > production) and score consistent 10,000-ish performances in the coming months. Back to July, the main markets were France (3,834 units), Germany (record 2,851 units) and the UK (900). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top position, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership . 

#2 Ford Kuga PHEV - Before the Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), Ford was something of a dead duck in Europe, with its record year happening in 2015, with 1,308 units...Not exactly stellar behavior, is it? But the Kuga PHEV has changed all that, in July the compact crossover scored an amazing 6,366 registrations, earning its third Best Selling PHEV monthly title in a row, each time beating its own personal record! How high will will the Kuga go?!? The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation were Germany (record 1,691 units), Denmark (1,660 units!!! What happened here?!?!) and the UK (record 1,000). With the Kuga PHEV usable electric range, competitive pricing (and is already being discounted in some countries...) the Ford model is now one of the best value for money plugin hybrids out there, so expect it to become a regular feature here. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production/battery constraints ever since it landed, a couple of years ago, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates for its small crossover, thanks to the Czech plant production, allowing a record 4,444 deliveries and its first podium standing. After the waiting list being finally emptied (September?), we will finally start to see the real demand level of the small crossover (3,000/month?). Back to July, Germany  was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,680 deliveries, followed by France (780 units), Norway (383) and The Netherlands (363). 

#4 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf scored a record(!) 4,153 units last month, with the veteran model seemingly immune to its announced sunset, as Volkswagen milks everything it can from it until the September volume landing of the ID.3 successor. Regarding July, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (record 2,633 units), The Netherlands (488) and Norway (201).

#5 Volvo XC40 PHEV – The compact Volvo continues to impress, after a looong production ramp up, now things are picking up quickly (excluding the pandemic-related period), with July registering 3,884 units it's second record performance in a row, with the biggest market for the Belgian-built Swede was France, with 609 units, with Sweden following, with 516 units, and The Netherlands also registering high volumes, with 402 units.

Ford Kuga: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news on the top positions were the #5 Audi e-Tron closing in on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with only 38 units now separating them, so the big Audi could regain the SUV crown soon, while the Hyundai Kona EV jumped two positions, to #6.

But the Climber of the Month was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that shooted 7 spots, to #9, and now has its headlights set on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the current holder of the PHEV and SUV trophies, and if it won't get there by August, then in September it will be dead certain that it will surpass the veteran Japanese model. 

Still within the Top 10, the Kia Niro EV was up two spots, to #10, thanks to a record 3,371 registrations, highlighting a very positive month for the Korean Group, besides the aforementioned Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV rises, the Niro PHEV returned to the table, in #20, thanks to a record 1,812 registrations, in fact Hyundai-Kia had 6 models scoring four-digit performances (Hyundai Kona EV - 4,444; Kia Niro EV, - 3,371; Kia Niro PHEV - 1,812; Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 1,441 units and new record; Kia Ceed PHEV - 1,417 units and new record; Kia Soul EV - 1,002).

But the Korean Group wasn't the only to make such a feat, as Daimler and the BMW Group also had 6 models scoring 4-digit performances last month, while the VW Empire Group did even better, by having 10(!) models with 1,000-plus performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE, VW e-Up, Audi e-Tron, Audi A3 PHEV, Audi Q5 PHEV, Skoda Citigo EV, Skoda Superb PHEV, Porsche Taycan, Porsche Cayenne PHEV). 

The VW Group is starting to look like the best German soccer teams: What may they lack in talent, they make up in team (clock)work...Now, they only need a Beckenbauer (ahem, ID.3...) in the back, to pull the team forward.  

In other news, the #13 BMW 330e surpassed its pure electric stablemate, the i3, thanks to a year best score of 2,951 units (for once, BMW can say that its sports sedan outsold the Tesla Model 3...#sarcasm), while the small EV is continuing its slow fall into irrelevance, now that cheaper and equally exciting small EVs are available on the market.

The Volvo XC40 PHEV jumped 2 positions, to #15, thanks to a record 3,884 deliveries, but the Belgian-Swede wasn't the only one hitting record performances, in a peak month, personal bests were plentiful, among them, and not yet mentioned, there were the 2,442 units of the VW Passat GTE, the 1,670 units of the Audi A3 PHEV, another veteran unwilling to retire, or the 2,549 units of the VW e-Up, and if we add the triplets together (VW e-Up - 2,549; Skoda Citigo EV - 1,371; Seat e-Mii - 777), we get the nice amount of 4,697 deliveries in July, which would make it the 3rd Best Selling EV last month! Not only that, all three nameplates scored record performances in July, so it seems demand for the triplets is more than assured.

Outside the Top 20, the ramp up of several models is starting to gain relevance, like the Mercedes A250e, with the German PHEV registering a record 3,504 units, the BMW X1 PHEV, that delivered 2,281 units, or the Opel Grandland X PHEV (1,503), while on the BEV side, we have the refreshed MG ZS EV reaching a record 1,514 units, and on the top of the EV food chain, the Porsche Taycan had yet another record score, this time with 1,490 units. 

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with 4 brands separated by 1%, with 9% share we have Volkswagen and Renault, while with 8%, we now have BMW and Tesla...And right behind them, we have Volvo, with 7%!

So if the models race is hard to predict, the brands trophy is casino gambling!

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and it won't have significant competition until next year, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (104 units in July) will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker will be happy if it gets a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2 and has scored its best result this year, with 1,144 units in July, seeing its sales grow by 39% YoY, while the #3 Mercedes EQC is finally reaching decent volumes, having delivered a record 1,611 units last month, and it is now only 371 units behind the British Sports SUV, so we could see the Three-pointed-star EV reach Silver this year, after all.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,110 units last month, representing a 75% sales increase YoY, and while Tesla prepares the Model S & X  refresh for the end of September, the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units this year (4,605), as the Model S & X did...counted together!