Germany July 2020

Mercedes A250e - A new star is born?

11% share! - Let the Games Disruption Begin!

If the German overall market is finally back to normal, down just 5% in July, the local plugin market is red hot right now, scoring an amazing 36,000 units performance, which not only a new record, but is 85% above the last record, made last March.

And if BEVs were up 182% YoY last month, to almost 17,000 units, PHEV registrations went though the roof, up 485%(!), to some 19,000 units , meaning that plugins as a whole that jumped an amazing 302%(!) last month, with the plugin share reaching an amazing 11% (5.3% BEV), pulling the yearly tally at 8.5% (4% BEV). 

With the recent incentive changes, the German plugin market started the second half of the year on fire, with a record month in the usually slow July, and with more record months to come (ahem, September), we may have already reached the tipping point in Germany, where disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever, so we could see this market reach the 10% plugin share already this year, which would mean 2021 would see this market surf the steepest part of the S-Curve during that whole year.

After years asking: "Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?", we can finally say that yes, we have arrived there, so let's sit back and enjoy the Disruption show unfold before our eyes...

Back at last month Best Sellers, in July the Renault Zoe was once again the Best Seller, with a record 2,851 registrations, while the VW e-Golf success streak (or is it VW self-registrations?!? Hmmm...Discuss) continues, apparently oblivious to the imminent large volume landing of the VW ID.3 (104 units in July), with the veteran hatchback scoring a record(!) result of 2,633 registrations in July, a truly surprising and outstanding result.

Speaking of outstanding performances, below the two Top Sellers, we have three models that, each in its own way, had outstanding results in July: 

- The #3 Mercedes A250e scored 1,925 deliveries, which is the best result monthly result ever by a Mercedes model, with a usable electric range (65 kms / 40 mi WLTP range), competitive pricing (starts below 40,000€) and even fast-charging(!), expect the compact Mercedes to become a familiar face in this Top 5;

- In #4 we have the Ford Kuga PHEV, that scored yet another record performance, with 1,691 units, with Ford betting heavily on the compact SUV to comply with the 95 g/km CO2 rules, so much so, that the Dearborn maker is already offering extra 5,000€ discounts on its plugin hybrid, that added to an usable 56 kms /35 mi WLTP range, makes it incredible value for money. As the year ends, expect Ford to offer deep(er) discounts of its only plugin model, so we could see this model more often here.

- The Hyundai Kona EV registered an amazing 1,688 units last month, with the Korean Crossover benefiting from the Czech-made units to finally satisfy demand and consequently flood the German market of units, now the question is: Will Hyundai be able to beat this new high in the foreseeable future?

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	2,851
2	VW e-Golf	2,633
3	Mercedes A250e	1,965
4	Ford Kuga PHEV	1,691
5	Hyundai Kona EV	1,688

Regarding the 2020 table, there's plenty to talk about, in the podium positions, the #2 Renault Zoe is now just 36 units behind the leader VW e-Golf, while the VW Passat GTE jumped to 3rd, displacing the Tesla Model 3, that went by July starved of fresh units.

Looking at August, the Renault Zoe should reach the top spot, while the VW midsizer will try to defend (and maybe increase its lead) over the Tesla Model 3, but expect the Californian to return big time by the Super-September month...

And why will September be Super? Well, a certain VW ID.3 lands, delivering some 6,000 units (wild guess) at once, landing immediately on the podium zone, possibly kicking out the Renault Zoe from the throne in December, and speaking of the Zoe, the French EV should register (at least) some 2,500 units in September, all while the Tesla Model 3 will benefit from an unconstrained end-of-quarter peak, and deliver some 2,500 units.

So, in just three EVs, 11,000 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 30,000 units, and you get 41,000 units, not only a new record, but also reaching some 13% plugin share!

The PHEV race also saw big changes, with the VW Passat GTE (1,431 units, new record) becoming the new category leader, followed by the evergreen Audi A3 PHEV (1,056 units, new record!), while the previous leader Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV took a tumble, despite registering 597 units...Because in these disruptive times, with everyone pushing their limits (13 models in this Top 20 hit record performances in July), if one has just an OK performance, they will surely be surpassed...

Looking at other position changes, the little VW e-Up jumped three spots, to #6, thanks to a record 1,344 units, making 4 Volkswagen Group models in the Top 6, while the Hyundai Kona EV was up to #11, the Ford Kuga PHEV jumped 5 positions, to #14, and should climb higher in the coming months, but the Climber of the Month was the Mercedes A250e, that shooted from #20 to #12, highlighting a record month for Mercedes and the Daimler Group, that had 6 (!) models hitting record performances (A250e - 1,965 units; C300e/de - 942 / GLC300e - 619 / EQC - 295; Smart Fortwo EV - 1,209; Smart Forfour EV - 596). 

But Daimler wasn't the only OEM having record performances across its lineup, the Hyundai-Kia lineup also shined, with 5 record performances (Hyundai Kona EV - 1,688 units; Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 426; Kia Ceed PHEV - 603; Kia Niro EV - 613; Kia Niro PHEV - 347), but the most impressive of all was the Volkswagen Group, now that the giant has awakened, the German conglomerate had 8 (!!) models hitting record scores (VW e-Golf - 2,633 units; VW Passat GTE - 1,431; VW e-Up - 1,344; Audi A3 PHEV - 1,056; Skoda Citigo EV - 650; Skoda Superb PHEV - 609; Audi A6 PHEV - 472; Porsche Taycan - 346). Now about those that say that the Volkswagen EV efforts are just smoke screens...

Outside the Top 20, a reference also for the record 792 units of the BMW X1 PHEV and the 687 deliveries of the Mini Cooper EV, while the progresses of the Swedish Volvo in this market (record 397 units for the XC60 PHEV and 383 for the XC40 PHEV) seem puny next to the previous numbers. 

As plugins merge with the mainstream trends, expect more events like this to occurr, with brands big in the plugin niche to continue growing, but at a slower pace than the Big Boys.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (16%) leads the way and Audi (10%, down 1%) is the runner-up, making a 1-2 lead for the Volkswagen Group, with Mercedes (11%, up 1%) surpassing BMW (8%, down 1%) and becoming the new Bronze medalist, while the #5 Renault (8%) is already breathing on BMW's neck.

Will the French maker be able to surpass BMW in its own soil? Oh, the ignominy that would be for the Bavarians...

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is now of 32% (VW - 16%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 4%; Porsche - 2%), well above the 14% of the Daimler Group or the 12% of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. Here also, as plugins merge with the mainstream, they start to absorb the trends and tastes of the mainstream market.