16% share!
The German plugin market had another record month in September, with a little over 41,000 units, PHEV registrations continue going through the roof, up 463%(!), to 20,127 units, helping plugins as a whole jump an amazing 437% last month, with the plugin share reaching a record 16% (8% BEV), pulling the yearly tally to 10% (4.8% BEV), so this market has officially reached two-digits, also known as...The Disruption Zone.
And in an overall positive market (+8% YoY), petrol (-18%) and diesel (-6) continue falling, so the force that is pulling the market up is electricity, leaving fossil fuels as deadweights on the shoulders of Legacy OEMs...
There's no going back, and with the incentive changes helping sales in the following months, expect the status quo to be changed forever, and the S-Curve is ready to be surfed like Garret McNamara in Nazare...
Looking at last month Best Sellers, in September the Renault Zoe broke all records, by registering 3,603 units, beating the high tide Tesla Model 3, that delivered 2,776 units, while the official debut of the VW ID.3 started in the 3rd spot, with 1,771 units, a somewhat disappointing result, but let's not forget that the new Volkswagen hatchback will only have its first full deliveries month in October, so let's wait for next month to make a more reasoned judgement on the ID.3 career launch.
Below the podium Top Sellers, the #4 Mercedes GLC300e/de jumped to #4 in September, benefiting from the launch of the diesel-powered version, registering a record 1,592 units, in fact in a record month, best ever performances are plenty, in the September Top 20, 11 models had record scores, 6 of them coming from the VW Group stable (VW ID.3, VW Passat GTE, Audi Q5 PHEV, Audi A6 PHEV, Audi e-Tron, Skoda Superb PHEV), highlighting the production ramp-up of the German conglomerate.
Outside this Top 20, we have several models in ramp-up mode, like the Volvo XC40 PHEV (500 units), or the 548 registrations of the peculiar Mazda MX-30, but the most striking deliveries ramp-up comes from Mercedes, with 5(!) models starting to be delivered in significant volumes, with the CLA250e sports sedan registering 553 units, its family-friendly sibling B250e delivering 418 units, while the adventurer GLA250e scored 483 units, the full size barge GLE350de had 352 units, and even the fully electric EQC had a record 349 deliveries.
Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, with the 3rd placed Tesla Model 3 winning precious advantage over the #4 VW Passat GTE, but as things are, the leader Zoe seems to have the 2020 title secured, because the 5,500 units of advantage over the #3 Model 3 seem more than enough to keep the Californian in the rear view mirror.
The first position change happened in #7, with the VW e-Up rising one spot, immediately followed by the Mercedes E300e/de and #9 Ford Kuga PHEV, with both models jumping two positions.
Speaking of Mercedes, the three-pointed-star maker now has another model in the Top 20, its 4th(!), with the GLC300e/de joining the table in #17.
The other fresh face in the table is the small Skoda Citigo EV, that reached #20 last month, but that wasn't the only good news for the Czech maker, as the Superb PHEV climbed one position, to #18.
Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, the Audi e-Tron jumped two spots, to #11, and still has hopes to displace the #8 Mercedes E300e/de from the top of the Luxury category.
In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (15%) leads the way but it is now being threatened by the rising Mercedes (14%, up 2%), that thanks to a strong (and long) PHEV lineup, is looking to reach the top spot. Those ID.3 (and upcoming ID.4) volume deliveries are coming right on time for the Wolfsburg brand...
The #3 Audi (10%) remains stable, while outside the podium, BMW (7%) was surpassed by Renault (8%, up 1%), deepening the crisis of the Bavarian maker in its home market.
On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is stable at 30% (VW - 15%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 3%; Porsche - 2%), above the rising Daimler Group, with 18% (up 3%), or the 12% (up 1%) of the Renault-Nissan Alliance.
Midsize Car Best Sellers
Pl | Model | 2020 Sales |
1 | VW Passat | 41,348 |
2 | BMW 3-Series | 32,093 |
3 | Mercedes C-Class | 29,802 |
4 | Audi A4 | 26,456 |
5 ... 6 | Skoda Superb ... Tesla Model 3 | 13,377 ... 10,121 |
Comparing the current electrification rates with March 2020, we have four models with a significant degree of electrification, with the leader VW Passat having 19% (up 5%) of its sales coming from the GTE version, while the new 3rd place Mercedes C-Class has 18% of sales coming from its PHEV versions, and the #2 BMW 3-Series, 10% share.
But the champion of electrification is the #5 Skoda Superb, with 27% share, up 3% regarding March.
Which leaves the #4 Audi A4 as the only unplugged model.
Which leaves the #4 Audi A4 as the only unplugged model.
The Tesla Model 3 is still outside the Top 5, but rose from #8 to #6.
Midsize SUV Best Sellers
Pl | Model | 2020 Sales |
1 | Mercedes GLC | 26,978 |
2 | BMW X3 | 17,046 |
3 | Audi Q5 | 12,241 |
4 | Volvo XC60 | 10,356 |
5 | Mitsubishi Outlander | 7,732 |
We have a fully electrified Top 5, although these models have various degrees of electrification, from the 16% PHEV share (up 13%) of the Mercedes GLC, to the 74% of the Mitsubishi Outlander, passing by the 12% (up 4%) of the BMW X3, 17% of the Volvo XC60 and the 40% (up 15%) of the Audi Q5.
5 electrified models out of 5 is already significant, and with the Mercedes GLC PHEV and Audi Q5 PHEV in ramp up mode, things will look even better in a few months.
Full Size Car Best Sellers
Pl | Model | 2020 Sales |
1 | Mercedes E-Class | 23,590 |
2 | Audi A6 | 23,481 |
3 | BMW 5-Series | 19,341 |
4 | Mercedes S-Class | 2,873 |
5 | Volvo S/V90 | 2,771 |
The #2 Audi A6 was the most significant case of electrification growth, going from virtually zero in March, to the current 11%, but other models also have volume deliveries of their PHEV versions, with the #1 Mercedes E-Class hitting a significant 25% share (up 3%), while the #3 BMW 5-Series reached 11% (down 1%), and the #5 Volvo S/V90 twins had 20%.
Finally, the Mercedes S-Class jumped to 4th, but the big Merc has a low electrification rate (just 5%), something we hope the new generation will change for the better.
Finally, the Mercedes S-Class jumped to 4th, but the big Merc has a low electrification rate (just 5%), something we hope the new generation will change for the better.
Full Size SUV Best Sellers
Pl | Model | 2020 Sales |
1 | Mercedes GLE | 9,764 |
2 | BMW X5 | 9,211 |
3 | Audi e-Tron | 5,452 |
4 | VW Touareg | 4,908 |
5 | Audi Q7 | 4,751 |
Unlike in other countries, the full size SUV category isn't on the forefront of electrification, with two models still very much ICE only, as the leader Mercedes GLE had just 6% of its sales coming from the PHEV version (the 350de version only recently started to be delivered in volume), while the #3 VW Touareg (2% PHEV sales) plugin hybrid versions are still in demonstration mode.
The #5 Audi Q7 had a significant jump in PHEV share, from just 8% in March, to the current 23%, while the BMW X5 PHEV is doing even better, representing 24% (up 5%) of the X5 sales.
The #5 Audi Q7 had a significant jump in PHEV share, from just 8% in March, to the current 23%, while the BMW X5 PHEV is doing even better, representing 24% (up 5%) of the X5 sales.
Another good news is the full EV Audi e-Tron climbing to 3rd, surpassing the fossil fuel addicted VW Touareg.
With the new VW Touareg PHEV and Mercedes GLE350de ramping up production, it should be a matter of time until this Top 5 becomes fully electrified.
With the new VW Touareg PHEV and Mercedes GLE350de ramping up production, it should be a matter of time until this Top 5 becomes fully electrified.
So nice.
ReplyDeleteIt seems there will be more ID.3's delivered in October than in September, in general.
In Norway, as of this morning (after exactly 11 of the 22 working days of the month), 1,363 ID.3's had already been registered.
Let's hope it's a general trend. :-)
Given that deliveries started only mid-September, a much higher number in October is definitely to be expected :-)
DeleteNice to have the full Top 20 for the month !
ReplyDeleteThanks José !
Volkswagen sales could be even higher as the ordering books for e-up! Citigo EV and Mii electric are trough the roof but the factory runs at 100% capacity all the time....
ReplyDeleteThat's often true for various popular BEV models :-)
DeleteThank you for your very interesting, clearing and important report. Unlike other countries Germay has mighty rich and very criminal automobile manufacturer mangements who force together with their political servants the whole country to buy unefficient, dity, loud, too large and too expensive cars with old technologies from the past: Dinosaurier car from yesterday. The normal people had to notice this and have started to buy smaller and more electrical. Tesla is the only brand which has growing sales in september. It ist faster and 5 years in advance. It should therefore increase its competition with VW.
ReplyDeleteNormal (german) People (<100.000 Euro per Anno) still don´t buy Tesla, but ZOE.
ReplyDeleteWhat's with the Germans love for the Zoe?
ReplyDeleteIt's just a very affordable EV with decent range, that can be bought without having to deal with months-long waiting lists (*coughVWtfipletscough*). Really the ready availability is the biggest reason why Zoe has been doing so well this year in Europe IMO.
DeleteIt's a pretty good offering in an extremely popular vehicle class. What's not to love?...
DeleteAt this rate, we might actually see the 10% mark for BEVs alone broken later this year :-) Given that ID.3 deliveries in Germany do not seem to have started for good yet in September, I'm sure there is room for the total tally to climb further...
ReplyDeleteHi Jose, how close are those 40k+ units to the US market?
ReplyDeleteThey seem to be running neck-and-neck, and with September Germany just pulled ahead for the first time ever! (Well, first time in the modern EV era at least)
Deletehttps://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates
around 6000km apart. One ocean to be exact...
DeleteSurely ID3 will have better numbers once the version with the smallest battery is available.
ReplyDeleteBut VW may loose market share to Mercedes as the A250e seems to be doing better than Golf PHEV.
As there is massive capacity coming to the markets (VW ID3inZwickau 400.000, VW ID4, Citigo, VW eUP, Seat Mii, and Skoda Enyac...) these produced cars will be eventually sold. So,sales numbers can only increase hugely from now on.
ReplyDeleteAs you can learn from Tesla, you need customers not just capacity. (Tesla capacity is 700k but they will hardly reach 500.)
Delete16 month delivery time for E-up is a complete no-go.
Dacia Spring was introduced yesterday.
Will it replace the vacuum VW has created?
Except that the Zwickau capacity is shared between ID.3, ID.4, el-born, and Q4...
Delete(And AFAIK there is no word on increasing capacity for the non-profitable e-Up!/Mii/Citigo.)
Capacity will always outpace actual production. They are continuously ramping production. Think of capacity as potential. It's not that they don't have enough customers. They wouldn't be building out Berlin, Austin and Shanghai if they were demand-constrained.
Delete@Koogle don't confuse capacity, run rate, and full year production. Run rate is generally below theoretical capacity for all kinds of reasons (such as the severe labour shortage in Nevada); while whole year production will obviously be below the current run rate as the run rate increases throughout the year. They might reach a run rate around 700,000 in Q4 -- but they were much lower than that at the beginning of the year. (And there was a big pause in the spring...)
DeleteThe only Tesla models not production-constrained for the past two years are Model S and X.
Mr Koogle does not know that Tesla big Fremont factory is shutdown for 49 days and even after that, it was only in ramp up mode. With the Shanghai factory also shutdown for long time, it took away 200K capacity. Whatever they produced they sold leaving only vehicles in transit.
DeleteIts ok even if they dont reach 500K, its all because of Covid. But 2021 will start with a bang. Still Tesla has positive growth for the year while all other automakers are in negative.
We will get an update from the horse's mouth this evening: but many believe that Tesla still has a shot at getting to 500,000, or worst case missing just slightly...
Delete@Jose Pontes: Thank you very much for providing separate tables for month and the YTD. I believe same can be done for sales of global, europe and china as well since these 4 entities boast big #. ev-sales.blogspot is becoming like Tesla with frequent improvements.
ReplyDeleteJust a suggestion, you dont need to suffix EV for BEVs, anything in blue cand be understood as EV. But PHEV suffix needed to differentiate it from the other. Still BEVs could hold top-3.
Fantastic 41.315 , thanks to VW, Tesla, Renault and other automakers and involved companies, customers who made this possible. 16% share for the month with 10% share for YTD is great.
Finally VW ID.3 is seeing the light of the day with amazing 1.771 in the very 1st month storming into #3. Model 3 is recovering with a decent sales. Either Model 3 may retain #3 spot at the end of the year of could get into #2 if ID.3 could not come to that level.
My idea is to make separate Top 20's for DE, FR, NL, Europe and China. I thought about doing the same for Global Sales, but then it would be a 4 graph article, which would take even more time to comment...So for the time being, it will stay in the old format.
DeleteAs for the EV suffix, a few monthgs ago, in the Germany article, there was someone complaining that they didn't knew which was what, even with the colour codes (maybe colour blind?), so in the Germany article i have included that suffix in every model.
Looking at the tables, there are 3 "de PHEV" and while petrol lost 18%, diesel lost only 6%, all this shows that diesel is not going down as fast as people expected. Overall 54.036 plugless hybrids were sold for 20% market share. Not clear as how many of these are diesel hybrids. XEVs have 36%.
ReplyDeleteBut good news is BEVs are increasing and electrification is also increasing. Hope the VW ID.4 will give another big boost. Ideally they can sell ID.3 in USA as well.
Also there is demand for EV trio of e-up, Mii, Citigo, no idea why VW should plan to close them. This is what makes us suspect the group. Did BMW launch the i3 with the higher range. Seems they are sticking with 42 KWh.
Nissan Leaf is neither in month, nor in YTD and Outlander has ended in #20 in top-20 and will be kicked out soon. This shows how important an effective leader like Carlos Ghosn is. Snakes are running these companies.
Leaf never had a good standing in Germany. Most people interested in that class seem to prefer the local e-Golf, despite clearly worse specs...
DeleteThe e-Up! and variants have very high demand, because at that price, they are very attractive offerings... But that's the issue: this price is far from profitable, losing several thousand Euro on each unit. They are making them as compliance models to tide them over this year and next -- but they have no interest in increasing production beyond what is necessary to meet emission goals. Going forward, they are rather betting on the MEB-based models they are hoping to be profitable.
DeleteVW Group hasn't decided to close the production of the city triplets, they just closed the order books until the current waiting list, that in some countries is over 8 months, is significantly smaller.
Delete@José 16 months waiting list is what I heard...
DeleteAnd I've also seen claims that they closed the order book forever -- though I don't know whether that's true.
So VAG is sending confusing signals as whether only the order books are closed or the vehicle itself is closed. This shows how careless they are. Or their management is confused whether to sell or close them.
DeleteMaybe VW is prioritizing ID3 over City triplet.
DeleteI wouldn't be surprised if all of a sudden they will have capacity again one Dacia Spring is available.
Lot of news from Tesla prior to their earnings call on 10-21. Many range increases, hope all this will translate to increased sales.
ReplyDeleteModel Prior miles Prior km Current miles Current km
Model 3 LR 322 (515) 353 (565)
Model 3 SR+ 250 (400) 263 (421)
Model S Perf 348 (557) 387 (619)
Model X LR 351 (562) 371 (594)
Model X Perf 305 (488) 341 (546)
Model Y LR 316 (506) 325 (520)
Model Y Perf 291 (466) 303 (485)
Happy to share that GM will convert its Detroit-Hamtramck plant to produce only EVs and will be called Factory ZERO, its own Zwickau. This factory will produce Hummer EV. This vehicle will be revealed on 10-20, but it will be midnight in Europe, so you can check it the next day.
ReplyDeleteThis is a big expensive vehicle which can be afforded only by the rich.
Now Tesla Model 3 SR+ boasts 2 extra miles / 3 km than Chevy Bolt with the recent 13 mile / 21 km range boost. GM gave 23 mile / 37 km range boost for year 2020 and it holds there. While all Chevy models for 2021 are announced, still there is no news for Bolt, this is the step-motherly treatment given to EVs and this is why Tesla beats others. Also GM will not reduce the price, but keeps giving $8.500 discount permanently.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/16/gm-electric-vehicle-only-factory-zero-gmc-hummer-ev-pickup/
Tesla is at #22 in Europe in Sep and #25 in YTD and is above many japanese brands like honda, mitsu, lexus. Their post virus ramp up, range increase and the price decrease could give a big boost in the coming months.
ReplyDeleteLexus is discontinuing IS (Saloon), RC (Coupe) and CT (hatch) in Europe. As usual their sales dropped, and customers moved towards crossovers.
But they keep selling their big saloon LS which sold only 58 units in 1st 8 months of 2020.
On another front, Peugeot 108 and Citroen C1 will also be discontinued.
All this indicates that petrol/diesel are going down while the electrics are on the rise.
Germany could pass USA 2019 numbers in 2020.
ReplyDeleteAnd that is without the Tesla dominance in the USA market.
No idea what the USA market is doing this year, Insideevs stopped creating the monthly scorecard.
Check Assaf's comment, he has a link for that question:
Deletehttps://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates
@Jose: Thanks a lot for this info. So in USA for 2020-09,
DeleteHEV: 43.130
PHEV: 6.170
BEV: 28.034
This is just a small increase, but much of the BEV load is done by Tesla alone.
How many BEVs were sold by others.
Chevy Bolt: 1.919
Nissan Leaf: 647
Audi etron: 775
Porsche Taycan: 627
BMW i3: 203
For many other models, split of BEV part is not disclosed. How notorious the automakers are by hiding the fact.
Still the mainstream media never acknowledges the fact that Tesla is selling so many BEVs.
@Maarten: Based on the link provided by Jose, 2020-YTD sales of PEVs in USA is only 198.394 while Germany has 204.251 a thin 6K lead. No idea whether Germany will be able to keep the lead in the next 3 months. I hope ID.3 will give a boost to Germany.
DeleteMay be in plugless hybrids, USA may have the lead.
ID.3 will give a boost in Germany, but Model Y ramp will give a boost in the US... So it could still go either way :-)
Delete(And in BEVs -- which is what really matters -- there is still no contest... Unsurprisingly, given the sizes of these markets.)
On top of the ongoing Fremont production ramp, with some Chinese production now going to Europe (and LHD APAC?...), presumably a larger portion of Fremont output will be delivered in North America... There race is definitely not over yet :-)
DeleteAs long as ID.3 deliveries are dictated by logistics and fulfilling the backlog, we will not get any idea about the current market demand for this new Beetle / Golf.
ReplyDeleteLet's have patience.
The thing is, like most BEVs, I'd expect sales to be dictated more by production than demand for quite a while... Although it doesn't seem to be quite the game changer we were promised, it does seem to be a very solid offering -- it would be pretty disappointing if the ID.3 and other MEB models don't exceed the capacity of the one factory they have for now...
Deletemore fun in a year or two with used low mileage cars available. hopefully more countries copy france's 1000 eur used incentive.
ReplyDeleteNow with numbers like this we're certain to see an oil consumption decrease by the end of 2021. Small, within 1% at first, but the ball will start rolling.
ReplyDeleteGreat news, Honda to stop selling diesel cars in UK this year.
ReplyDeleteBy 2022 end, they will stop selling petrol cars in UK this year.
After that only hybrid and electric vehicles will be sold.
From UK, they may start implementing these Europe wide as well.
But Honda is a small player in Europe and they will face competition
from BEVs from other companies and may have to start considering at least
PHEVs seriously.
Correct, and they will take this chance too for closing shop in the UK (2021) and move fast forward to total irrelevance in the european market.
DeleteYeah. I can see the boost of PHEV in Germany almost every day on my way to the office. And it becomes an annoying look when it comes to PHEV drivers blocking the chargers. Im speaking of standing several hours or half day while surely charging has been finished hours ago.
ReplyDeleteIT will be interesting to see how people will handle this.
Though this might not be a PHEV only phenomenon, there seems to be a difference in using the chargers kind of socially on BEV and the massively increasing not-so-electric PHEV drivers. Meaning that awareness is bigger on the BEVs side.
What do you think?
As long as the charge provides the full return trip + some shopping, we have to feel happy. So ideally during lunch time, they should move their vehicles to another parking slot so that some other plugin may charge.
DeleteThere should be some cost for keeping the vehicle plugged after its fully charged. For ex: if they charge euro 1 / hour during charging, then they should charge the owner 25 cents / hour keeping vehicle plugged after charging, only then they will move it.
Well, at least that means some people are actually charging them regularly -- we should be happy about that, no?...
DeleteAs utilisation improves, presumably we should see more chargers installed, so it shouldn't be a problem long term...
Surely PHEVs should be prioritized so they use their full electric potential.
DeleteBEV owners can charge at home for 90% of their rides.
#synopsis
ReplyDeleteOf the 265227 vehicles registered in September (market up 8.4%), 41315 (15.6%) were PEV.
The leading powertrain was gasoline vehicles (45.5%) with 120645 units, followed by diesel (25.6%) with 67901 units, hybrids (12.8%) with 33909 units, electric (8%) with 21188 units, plug-in hybrids (7.6%) with 20127 units and the remaining 1415 units being alternative fuel powertrains (0.5%).
26768 vehicles from the total registered 41315 PEVs, capture the PEV Top20 positions, were the leading carmakers are VW group (35%) with 9355 units, followed by Daimler (22.4%) with 5986 units and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance (16%) with 4323 units.