Thursday, October 8, 2020

Netherlands September 2020


 

27% Share!


The Super-September edition of the Dutch EV market saw it return to red (-3% YoY), but with the crash of the overall market, the PEV market share actually jumped to 27%, 6 points ahead of September 2019, a time when we had no covid disruption a healthy automotive market saw plugins jump to 21% share, thanks to the (then) upcoming changes on the company car rules, that were set to start on January 1st, 2020.

Last month plugin share of 27% (21% BEV) pulled the 2020 PEV share to 16% (12% BEV), placing it finally above last year result (15%).

Interestingly, this time BEVs were the main driver of growth, being responsible for 79% of all plugin sales last month, well above the 74% yearly average, all thanks to the Tesla high tide, strong performances from Hyundai-Kia and the landing of hot, new BEVs...

As such, looking at last month sellers, we saw a (relatively) close race between the Kia Niro EV and the Tesla Model 3, with this last one winning the September trophy and reaching the 2th position in the overall ranking, but not all was lost to the Korean crossover, as the 749 registrations meant a new personal record.

But the highlight of the month came in 3rd, with the VW ID.3 scoring 609 deliveries in its first month (or should i say, "weeks") on the market, a whole letter of intentions, that will make it a strong contender for the 2021 Best Seller title. 

Outside the podium, another hot new EV had its first full sales month, with the Polestar 2 reaching #4, with 478 units, while the #5 Hyundai Kona EV scored a Year Best result, with 397 registrations.

An interesting factoid regarding this Top 5, is the fact that all these BEVs have over 400 kms (250 mi) of WLTP electric range. 

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
977
2
Kia Niro EV
749
3
VW ID.3
609
4
Polestar 2
478
5
Hyundai Kona EV
397


Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Tesla Model 3 has recovered the leadership from the Kia Niro EV, but with only 18 units separating them, this will be a race up until the last minute.

Elsewhere, first position changes happened in #8 and #9, with the Renault Zoe and Skoda Citigo EV (288 units, new PB) climbing one position, at the expense of the Nissan Leaf, that is now 10th, a few steps below the 5th spot it had 12 months ago.

The Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins jumped two positions, to #11, thanks to 182 units, their best result since January, with the Swedish brand now having a 1-2 leadership in the PHEV category.  

On the second half of the table, the hot hatch Mini Cooper EV was up to #13, thanks to a record 223 registrations, while the PSA cousins Opel Corsa EV and Peugeot 208 EV continue climbing, with the German model jumping to #16, thanks to a record 314 registrations, and the French EV was up to #17.

We have a new face in the table, with the Volkswagen ID.3 shooting to #19 in tis landing month, while the Polestar 2 is now #21, with 511 registrations, 478 of them made last month, so expect the Sino-Swede to join the table soon, possibly replacing the #20 BMW X5 PHEV, which would leave just 4 plugin hybrid models in this Top 20.

Outside the Top 20, there isn't much to talk about, the Peugeot 2008 EV is ramping up deliveries, having registered 126 units in September, while the wacky strong personality Mazda MX-30 landed last month, with a strong result of 176 units, and expect the Japanese maker to continue pushing its crossover EV throughout the remaining months of the year, as Mazda needs desperately to comply with the EU CO2-emission rules, in order to avoid fines, so if anyone is interested in this peculiar model, expect some significant discounts towards the end of the year.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (14%) is in the leadership, followed by Tesla (12%, up 1%), while Volkswagen (10%) and Volvo (also 10%) are running for the Bronze medal.

The #5 Hyundai (8%, up 1%), is closing in to the podium, but has Opel (7%, up 1%) knocking at the door too, with the German brand now starting to justify PSA's bet in it.




Midsize Cars

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
4.307
2
BMW 3-Series
2,923
3
Volvo S/V60 
2,832
4
Mercedes C-Class
1,315
5
Audi A4
1,129

Tesla's midsizer is leading, followed by the electrified BMW 3-Series (14% PHEV units) and Volvo's S/V60 twins (35%, up 8% regarding the June report).

As for the remaining Top 5, the local Mercedes importer has started to deliver the C300e/de PHEV versions, but the PHEV versions only represent 5% of the midsize Mercedes, while the #5 Audi A4 doesn't even have any plugin version...

...But Audi's spot on this Top 5 could be in danger, as the hot Polestar 2 could steal its position in the coming months


Midsize SUVs

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Volvo XC60
1,247
2
Mitsubishi Outlander
991
3
BMW X3
919
4
Mercedes GLC
552
5
Mercedes EQC
354

This category is running fast into electrification, from the all-electric Mercedes EQC in #5, to the almost all-PHEV Mitsubishi Outlander (96% PHEV units) in 2nd, passing by the #1 Volvo XC60 (33% PHEV, up 6%) or the #3 BMW X3 (33%, up 10%), and ending on the mildly pluggable Mercedes GLC (11% PHEV), in 4th.

With Mercedes now delivering PHEV units of its GLC midsize SUV, expect the three-pointed-star model to increase significantly its electrification rate.


Full size Cars

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
BMW 5-Series
1,477
2
Volvo S/V90
635
3
Mercedes E-Class
614
4
Audi A6
389
5
Porsche Taycan
331

The leadership is in the hands of the BMW 5-Series, that has a low plugin share of its sales, at only 13%.

And while the others are even worse, things are slowly changing, as the #3 Mercedes E-Class has 11% (it was up 3% regarding the last report) of its sales coming from its PHEV versions, while the #2 S/V90 PHEVs have also 11% share (up 6%) of the big Swedes sales, and even the #4 Audi A6 has started to become electrified, with the big Audi now having 5% of its sales coming from their PHEV versions

Another good news is the Porsche Taycan in the 5th spot, so we have one BEV model in every one of these Top 5's.


Full size SUVs

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Audi e-Tron
934
2
BMW X5
903
3
Porsche Cayenne
575
4
Volvo XC90
466
5
LR Range Rover Sport
306

Unlike the full size car category, where ICE is still king, here on behemoth-land, electrification is much more advanced, not only the BEV Audi e-Tron rose to the leadership, but the #2 BMW X5 now has 67% of its sales coming from its PHEV version, up 7% regarding June's report, while the #3 Porsche Cayenne was the model that showed the most progress, with its electrification rate jumping from 24% three months ago, to the current 43%.

The #4 Volvo XC90 has an 88% electrification share (up 2%), while the #5 Range Rover Sport has 88% (up 1%) of all its sales also coming from the PHEV version.

24 comments:

  1. Thanks José.

    Imagine how, for example, the Midsize SUV Top 5 will soon be, with lots of super exciting BEV offerings like the VW ID.4 and its sisters Skoda Enyaq iV and Audi Q4 e-tron (and a Cupra model ?), the Nissan Ariya (and a Renault sibling ?), the Ford Mustang Mach-e, and later the Tesla Model Y.
    Others ?
    We could have a 100% BEV Top 5.
    Nice !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One question: Should we consider the VW ID.4 a compact SUV, like the Toyota RAV4, or a midsize one, like the Tesla Model Y?

      Been hanging on the fence on this one...

      Delete
    2. It's a bit bigger than Kona/Niro, isn't it? I think midsize.

      Delete
    3. @Jose Pontes
      Either draw the line based on total interior space or length.
      Interior space will be a better indicator since this is the usable part.
      Split into 6 parts ranging from A to F; if its length then it can be like
      A: <= 3.800 mm
      B: >= 3.801 mm and 4.100 mm
      C: >= 4.101 mm and 4.400 mm
      D: >= 4.401 mm and 4.700 mm
      E: >= 4.701 mm and 5.000 mm
      F: > 5.000 mm

      For cars, there can be separate section. Just an idea.

      Delete
    4. @Jose Pontes. If you are in Europe, then wait for Model Y from Giga Berlin. It will include the new 4680 cells and Model Y from Berlin should start production from about June/July 2021.

      Delete
    5. The ID.4 has slightly longer wheelbase, but pretty much the same length as RAV4 -- and quite a bit shorter than Model Y. Also, it's the CUV equivalent of the compact ID.3...

      (OTOH, the XC40 and the Niro are significantly shorter than ID.4...)

      Delete
    6. So, after reading these comments, i am inclined to say that the ID.4 is SUV-C, or compact SUV. Or Toyota RAV4/Honda CR-V killer. ;-)

      Delete
  2. VW ID3 sales continue to storm the charts on a daily basis. At a sales rate of 75 per calendar day, VW ID3 has a market share of 30% in Norway during the last 20 days. If this continues, VW ID3 will lead the charts in every country by next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What, only 30%, down from 45% a few days ago? Already hitting a demand cliff?... :-P

      Delete
    2. On average over the last 20 days VWID3 had 33% market share per calendar day. However, it had on some days 45% in Norway. Tesla Model X and S sold just a few cars in October and just 34 Model 3. We will know the monthly statistics in a few weeks.On a daily basis a sea change is coming to the market.

      Delete
    3. Look at the numbers of Model X and Model S and then we can talk about a demand cliff...

      Delete
    4. 1st they compared vw id.3 with model 3, now they are comparing with model s/x, soon they will compare it with roadster. why are these guys getting so desperate.

      1st let the id.3 hit these targets
      10.000 sales
      50.000
      100.000
      then every 100.000 additional sales can be celebrated.

      id.3 competition is e-golf which will just go down with a 100.000 + sales of its own.

      Delete
    5. e-Golf is the ID.3's predecessor. It's no longer in production. It doesn't compete.

      The most direct EV competition is the Leaf. (Which it should easily outsell, having a better platform and better specs...)

      But mostly it should compete with combustion cars -- like pretty much every EV.

      Delete
    6. This is not really a surprise. We knew they had plenty of preorders on the books. Pent up demand tells us next to nothing about sustained production or demand.

      Or was "pent up demand" something that only applies to Tesla, but no one else?

      Delete
  3. #synopsis
    Of the 29.434 vehicles registered in September (market down 21.9%), 7801 (26.5%) are PEVs.

    4884 vehicles (62.6%) from the total registered 7801 PEVs are BEVs in the Top20 positions, were the leading carmakers are VW group (15.9%) with 1244 units, followed by Kia-Hyundai (14.7%) with 1146 units and Tesla (12.5%) with 977 units.
    PHEVs share among the Top20 is at 10.3% with 802 units.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ID3 could realistically jump into the top 10 next month if deliveries continue at the same pace.

    Also Jose can we have a Iceland report this month?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be very surprising if the ID.3 would *not* jump into the top 10 next month... Keep in mind, September deliveries wasn't even a full month.

      It should be expected to pass its predecessor the e-Golf before the year is out.

      Delete
  5. Maarten VinkhuyzenOctober 08, 2020

    After 10 days in the month of October we have the same 21% BEV share as last month.
    It is only the second time that a first month of a quarter (without the Tesla deluge) can compete with the last month of the previous quarter.
    I doubt December 2020 can reach the heights of the December 2019 madness (>50% BEV) but the BEV market-share is more solid now. Many models from many OEM are now competing, and more are coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The last quarter before the next step-down should see another major peak... Though >50% is indeed probably not in the cards :-)

      Delete
  6. 7.801 is a big # for Dutch market affected by coronavirus. Their highest is around 15K + in a December to cash in on the subsidies. I hope slowly the market moves to that level though its was a 1 time event.
    Nice to see Tesla selling 977 units.
    VW ID.3 has given decent boost to BEV segment and soon this will be joined by Volvo XC40 BEV.
    Time for Renault to offer a Zoe with bigger battery pack and a lower price.
    Nissan can still offer a 85 KWh battery pack for Leaf to make it stay afloat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Zoe just got a larger battery this year. We'll have to wait *at least* another year for the next increase -- more likely two...

      (And, again, the Leaf is not getting a larger battery until it switches to a completely new platform. The current one is totally maxed out.)

      Delete
  7. LOL, "strong personality"... Nice way to put it ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  8. You didn't address the elephant in the room: what happened to the Kuga?...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Surely we are due an update on NL’s neighbour across the North Sea (UK) as it crosses the magic 10% threshold (?). Even if the data is quite patchy...

    ReplyDelete