Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Sweden September 2020


34% Share!


We start the month in Sweden, with the local plugin market jumping 174% YoY, to a record 9.885 registrations, with last month scoring a best ever 34% share for plugins, pulling the 2020 PEV share to 28%. And both technologies pulled the market up, with BEVs only representing 37% of plugin sales (29% YTD), thanks to new hot models and a Tesla high tide, with BEVs now having 8% share of the total market (13% in September), while PHEVs have the remaining 20%.

Looking at the remaining fuels, in September, HEVs clocked a 12% share, versus 8% a year ago, while petrol lost 13% market share(!), now at 34%, while diesel was down 10% in share, to just 18%, with the black fuel sales now sitting behind PHEVs. 

At this pace, diesel will be död in Sweden by 2022...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, if Volvo secured another monthly win, this with the S/V60 PHEV twins, the Tesla Model 3 almost stole the prize, just losing the #1 by 8 units, but this performance allowed the sports sedan to be #7 in the overall market and it was still the Best Selling BEV on the market, something that will start to be a coveted award, especially by the hot new Polestar 2, 4th last month, with 582 units, and VW ID.3, that landed right in #5, with 460 deliveries.

A mention also to the #6 spot of the Toyota RAV4 PHEV last month, with 412 deliveries, so expect it to reach the Top 5 soon, and then to become a familiar face among the best sellers.

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Volvo S/V60 PHEV 
762
2
Tesla Model 3
754
3
Volvo XC60 PHEV
692
4
Polestar 2
582
5
VW ID.3
460


Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news in the top positions is the Volvo XC60 PHEV climbing to the 2nd place, switching places with the VW Passat GTE, now making a 1-2 lead for Volvo, while the VW midsizer deliveries flow seems to be slowly dropping. Blame it on increased competition?

The #6 Tesla Model 3 closed in on the #5 Kia Optima PHEV, while the remaining position change was between Volvos, with the new #10 now in the hands of the compact XC40 PHEV, that has surpassed the S/V90 PHEV twins.

On the second half of the table we have the Renault Zoe climbing to #12, while both the #15 Hyundai Kona EV and the #16 Nissan Leaf surpassed the Skoda Superb PHEV, that seems to be suffering from the same slow decline of its VW Passat GTE cousin. 

But the ranking changes didn't ended there, as the Polestar 2 joined the table in #19, just behind the #18 BMW 330e, that has seen its sales grow recently, thanks to the volume deliveries of the Touring (aka station wagon) version, allowing BMW's midsizer to score 201 units last month, a new year best.

Outside the Top 20, besides the aforementioned great performances of the Toyota RAV4 PHEV and VW ID.3, that will surely erupt in the Top 20 soon, we should mention also the ramp up of Mercedes, with two models (A250e - 176 units; GLC300e/de - 141) scoring record deliveries, while their Premium rivals BMW (X1 PHEV - 174 units; 530e - 133) and Audi (A6 PHEV - 122 units; Q5 PHEV - 139) are doing the same to their own plugin hybrids, as this technology is fast becoming the immediate successor to their diesel production. 

Interestingly, if the Tesla Model 3 deliveries were something of a disappointment, with no four-digit score, the flagship models had their shining moment in September, with the Model S (189 deliveries) and Model X (115) having their best performances this year. Is there life for these two, after all?

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo is in the lead, with 22% share (down 1%) and all the lineup on the Top 20, while Kia (18%, down 2%) keeps the 2nd place, and Volkswagen (12%) closes the podium, ahead of Tesla (7%, up 1%).






Midsize Cars

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Volvo S/V60
13.499
2
VW Passat
6.366
3
Kia Optima
2.722
4
BMW 3-Series
2.717
5
Tesla Model 3
2.700

Nothing new on the top positions, with the Best Sellers holding their positions, but below the podium, the Tesla Model 3 dropped to #5, switching positions with the BMW 3-Series, but with only 27 units separating the #3 Kia Optima from the #5 Tesla Model 3, anything can happen between these three. 

Looking at electrification rates, all ICE models have PHEV versions with variable shares, from the 100% of the Kia Optima, to 35% of the Volvo twins and the 35% of the BMW 3-Series (up 5% regarding 3 months ago), passing by the 59% of the VW Passat, so all in all, electrification is on the right track in this category.



Midsize SUVs

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Volvo XC60
7.926
2
Mitsubishi Outlander
2.150
3
Mercedes GLC
1.690
4
BMW X3
1.274
5
Audi Q5
717

We have a fully electrified Top 5 in this category, with all models keeping their positions, with the Mercedes GLC electrification rate jumping to 30%, from virtually nothing 6 months ago.

This highlights the fast electrification rate that is also going on, with the Outlander (96% PHEV sales) being basically a plugin model, while the BMW X3 (60%, up 2% regarding last June) and Volvo XC60 (51%, up 12%) are increasing their PHEV take rate, with the same being said about the Audi Q5 (42%, up 13%).

Considering all this, it won't be surprising that soon all models on this Top 5 will have over 50% of units plugin capable.



Full size cars

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Volvo S/V90
6.859
2
Audi A6
2.489
3
BMW 5-Series
2.461
4
Mercedes E-Class
2.128
5
Tesla Model S
643

While the flagship Volvos (24% coming from the PHEV version) ruling the category with an iron fist, below them, there are interesting developments, with the newly electrified (9% PHEV rate) Audi A6 supassing the BMW 5-Series and climbing the runner-up spot, with the big Beemer keeping its 27% electrification rate.

Elsewhere, the #4 Mercedes E-Class increased its PHEV take rate to 33%, a 4% increase over the last quarter.

With the Audi now delivering in volume its PHEV versions, this is now a fully electrified Top 5, signaling that no pure ICE models are present on these Top 5...Electrification, baby! Yeah!


Full size SUVs

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Audi e-Tron
1.574
2
Volvo XC90
1.374
3
Mercedes GLE
739
4
BMW X5
644
5
Porsche Cayenne
473

One of the categories with best results regarding electrification, here the all-electric Audi e-Tron is the ruler of the category, ahead of the Volvo XC90, that has 81% of its sales coming from the PHEV version (up 24%), which is midway between the BMW X5 (72% PHEV) and the Porsche Cayenne (86%).

Finally, even the laggard Mercedes GLE increased its electrification rate, as the GLE350de now represents 6% of the model total sales, up 4%.

28 comments:

  1. VW ID3 had a fantastic start into October in Norway as 326 cars have
    been sold just on track for more than 2000 cars sold in October surpassing the record in September. Just 12 Models 3 sold so far in October.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1st month of every quarter is very low for Tesla vehicles, its the last month where they pick up.
      BTW, the 400.000 production of ID3 in Zwickau is false, they have only 330.000 for ID3, ID4 and another model. Enough of your Tesla trolling.
      Hope you know that their sales in Germany this year is positive while all others suffered negative growth.

      Delete
    2. Depending on demand, production can easily increased in Zwickau. Currently a Saturday shift is discussed, which would increase capacity by 20%. Going to a 5 shift operation including Sunday capacity could increase to 500.000 cars per year. It is a fact that Tesla sales are extremely weak in Norway and Netherlands. Just 17 Models 3 have been sold in Norway so far in October versus 394 ID3. Model 3 on fire sale ("we have stock" in the UK).

      Delete
    3. @Heinrich

      Nice to see ID.3 sales increasing.

      As for Tesla sales.
      every month, they wait for month end
      every quarter, they wait for quarter end
      thats the way they sell, dont expect them to sell in the 1st week after quarter end.
      Hope you saw that their 2020-Q3 sales hit 43% growth while many legacy automakers stalled.
      Tesla is the only make whose sales increased in Germany while all others went down.

      Delete
    4. LOL... UK site shows all of two cars in inventory. Extremely weak sales for sure :-P

      Delete
    5. You both don`t get too carried away with european Tesla deliveries because at the moment, the UK is the only *hot market* for Tesla deliveries in europe. Model S and X is residual everywere (11705 vehicles combined, S:6069, X:5636 up to 9/2019; 21098 vehicles combined, S:11906, X:9192 up to 9/2018) compared to current 7741 vehicles combined, S:3812, X:3929.
      And with Model 3 isn`t better: 56652 vehicles currently against 63943 up to 9/2019.
      Tesla is down 11255 vehicles for the same period, while the BEV market is growing and Tesla provides better and less expensive cars in 2020 than it was doing in 2019.
      Covid-19 is hammering everybody, not only Tesla, so *that* isn`t the decisive factor.
      Only 2 cars left for sale in the UK? You have to get your facts checked. Tesla is providing a handful of inventory cars daily, way to much *carrot on a stick*.

      Delete
    6. @KiWi since when have you joined $TSLAQ nonsense? The fact that Model 3 Q3 sales where pretty much the same as last year, and not that much down for the year despite the pandemic, is in fact very encouraging. When I said at the beginning of the year that I expect them to roughly repeat last year's performance (contradicting the "pent-up demand only" narrative), I was pretty much spot on.

      Of course Tesla isn't growing sales like the other makers, that are throwing scores of new models on the market and/or offering large discounts, as they are struggling to meet new regulations -- but that doesn't imply any weakness on Tesla's side. I don't even remember when they last lowered prices in Europe, or pushed any other demand lever...

      Delete
    7. If you don`t remember the carrots, maybe you are spending too much time absorbing $TSLAQ nonsense (I even happen to not know what that is and it mean, just for you to know how much I care about it). Last carrots I heared was "Autopilot" price discount before July 1st and paid OTA "upgrades". But yeah, Model 3, X and S have been with the same price in europe since January 1st, 2019. Not.
      How is the daily UK inventory faring today?

      Delete
    8. Tesla sold 43% extra vehicles worldwide despite pandemic, it could differ from 1 market to other because of vehicles in transit. Why pick up the market where its low and keep cribbing. Wait until Oct 21 earnings call and dont get shocked if they say that they earned profit.

      Delete
    9. @KiWi the temporarily re-introduced "Enhanced Autopilot" package was only for people who already have the cars. It was certainly a revenue driver, but *not* a sales driver. You are grasping for straws.

      Delete
    10. Not really. The "Autopilot" debacle is Another carrot in the Tesla arsenal. It`s appalling in the same way as is the "automatic wipping" in any Tesla. So Autopilot that it takes vehicles slamming into stationary objects partially blocking the road. It`s a never ending revenue stream to bolster revenue and sales.
      Oh! and I just checked British inventory: 22 Model S (of wich 9 added in the last 24h, 29 Model X (of wich 1 added in the last 24h) and Zero Model 3. How cool is that?

      Delete
    11. What's your obsession with carrots? If you want to see large discounts on EVs struggling to hit sales targets, maybe take a look at the legacy makers...

      Now you are trying to deflect with some stupid FUD that has nothing to do with your "weak sales" narrative, since you ran out of straws to grasp?

      Delete
  2. super sep starts with swedes smashing the records. 9.885 is a big #.
    With Volvo S60 & V60 having different body styles with different weight, trunk space, design, its sales should be split, which puts Tesla Model 3 as #1. Model 3 wont capture #1, but at least it will move up few ranks.
    ID3 will join the top-20 next month and this will give a boost to BEVs.
    plugin hybrids: 21%, electric: 13%, hybrid: 12% and together they grab share from petrol/diesel.
    lets keep celebrating super sep will more records being set.

    Seems Volvo XC40 BEV is also going on sale this month.
    If automakers offer plugin hybrids with multiple battery like 10 KWh, 30 KWh, it could give a big boost to this segment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. +1

      On the S/V60 counting, they are counted together, because usually the sedan and wagon versions of a given model are counted together, like is the case of the VW Passat, Skoda Superb, Peugeot 508, etc, etc.

      Delete
  3. VW ID3 running at a 45% market share on a daily basis in Norway. Unbelievable numbers. The next reports will be extremely interesting. The market is turning upside down.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 13% BEVs? That's an all-time record, isn't it? Let's welcome them in the mainstream! :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, sooner or later i will have to change Sweden reports to the Norway format :)

      Delete
  5. e-tron seems to be the only BEV model seeing a "meh" performance this month. I wonder why? (Even Leaf is up!)

    ReplyDelete
  6. With the Tesla low tide in October, I guess we could see the RAV4 PHEV in the top 5 -- but longer term, we shouldn't really expect it to keep up with the top BEVs or the Volvo PHEVs, should we?...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The RAV4 PHEV has huge potential, if Toyota is behind it with significant production numbers, it could even be the 2021 Best Selling PHEV globally!

      Delete
    2. Globally, sure -- but does it really stand a chance against Volvo in Sweden?...

      Delete
    3. In Sweden? Mmmm...Probably not. But could become the Best Selling foreign PHEV next year.

      Delete
  7. The Passat/Superb isn't really seeing much in terms of recently introduced competition, is it? I'd guess it's simply the usual lull we tend to see for most models after initial demand is exhausted...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe the same thing is happening with the Audi e-Tron?

      Delete
    2. Maybe... The e-tron has been on the market longer, but has been production-constrained for a long time -- so I guess the lull might have been delayed?

      Delete
  8. Please check your table. 20 entries gives 5767 units adding 1730 never gives 9885 units. Something is off.

    ReplyDelete
  9. #synopsis

    Of the 29791 vehicles registered in September (market up 7.4%), 9911 (33.3%) were PEV.
    The leading powertrain was gasoline vehicles (31.5%) with 9382 units, followed by plug-in hybrids (21%) with 6233 units, hybrids (17.8%) with 5291 units, diesel (16.1%) with 4795 units, electric (12.3%) with 3678 units and the remaining 412 units being alternative fuel powertrains (1.4%).

    6108 vehicles from the total registered 9911 PEVs, capture the PEV Top20 positions, were the leading carmakers are Volvo Car (41%) with 2503 units, followed by Kia-Hyundai (22%) with 1338 units and VW group (12.5%) with 764 units.

    ReplyDelete