Monday, July 15, 2019

Iceland June 2019

Resultado de imagem para outlander PHEV in iceland
Outlander PHEV: Best selling vehicle in Iceland.

Hyundai Kona EV jumps to #3 in shrinking market

One of the major trends in Europe this year is the fall from grace of PHEVs, while BEVs continue growing at two digit numbers.

Of of the places where this trend is more visible is in Iceland, where plugin hybrids have played a major role for a long time, here PHEV sales were down 56%(!) in June, increasing the technology yearly drop to -35% YoY, and despite the BEVs best efforts (up 73% this year), it is dragging plugin sales down (-16%YoY).

Despite this setback, and because the mainstream market is dropping even more (-34%), the PEV share isn't that bad (20%), with the best part being that BEVs are increasing significantly their share, with the current result, 7%, being a new record in this market.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reigns supreme here, doubling the sales of the runner-up Nissan Leaf, while the Hyundai Kona EV is now 3rd, thanks to a record 28 registrations, and if the Nissan model continues underperforming, we could see the Korean crossover stealing the Silver medal this year.

BMW had a good month in June, with the i3 hot hatch jumping to #18, while the 225xe A.Tourer MPV scored a record 10 deliveries, allowing it to climb to #16, and the 530e sedan also climbed to #15, thanks to a year best 8 deliveries.

In the brands ranking, Mitsubishi (23%) is in the leadership, followed by the #2 Volvo (13%), with the new 3rd placed Kia (12%) already threatening the Swedish carmaker.

Models breakdown by fuel source

2019 Sales  
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV 
Toyota RAV4 Hybrid
Nissan Leaf
Hyundai Kona EV
Volvo XC60 PHEV
Nissan Qashqai
Toyota Land Cruiser
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Volvo XC90 PHEV
Mazda CX-5

In a market where plugins have over 20% share, plug-ins are becoming more and more synonym with overall best sellers, despite not having full access to the mainstream models ranking, we what we have got is enough to make a draft of the local overall market. 

If we mix all powertrains together, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is by far the best selling vehicle in the country, while the high share of plugins is noticeable, as they make half of the Top 10 (and 4 of the Top 5), and HEVs now only have two representatives, in the form of the #2 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid and its Yaris Hybrid sibling, in #8.

Looking at regular ICE representatives, the best only shows in #6, with two of them being high riding crossovers, while the 3rd is a proper off-roader.

As plug-ins continue to increase share, expect at some point in 2019 this Top 10 to be 100% xEV, with regular ICE models being slowly, but surely, pushed out.


  1. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 15, 2019

    José, again a thank you for reporting on smaller out of the way but highly interesting markets.

    I would have expected for PHEV to stay strong in this market for a little while longer. But perhaps that is because PHEV in rugged terrain is synonymous with the Outlander.

    With the increasing ranges of the last generation of BEV the allure of PHEV is fading.

    Klaus Fröhlig should learn something from what is happening in Iceland, Sweden, The Netherlands, Portugal and some other insignificant markets. They are the vanguard of the change that is coming.

    1. Often I find myself disecating speches from OEM people. Pro-EV people tend to reply to those speches on the lines, another guy with "Blackberry vision", this guy looks like a Kodak manager, or a Nokia manager...

      Well, I really understand their points most of the times: they have a supply chain for their bussinesses and they are trying to manage them without introducing disruptions. They don't want to close down retail shops (like Tesla announced they were planning to do), they don't want to sack most of their people (like Tesla announced they were sacking at delivery/stores), they don`t want to close down most of their manufacturing facilities overnight, because... people would loose jobs, so how those people could then afford to switch from current ICE cars to new EVs?
      Legacy carmakers can't change overnight from ICE cars to EVs, so they are managing to do it in an orderly manner. People can`t loose sight that there are many independent shops making a living from selling spare parts and servicing ICE cars. What jobs would most of those people do afterwards to earn money for a living? Selling parts for and servicing Tesla cars?
      And the most important thing: US, China, Japan, UK, Germany, India, France, Italy are just a few countries where cars sell the most in the world. While in those countries EV sales doesn`t reach 75% of all sales, legacy OEMs have their "traditional business" secure and safe for the time being.

    2. Well, I do understand the reasons for the tardiness of the legacy makers -- but it will *not* result in the "orderly transition" they are hoping for. The changes are too disruptive, as is already obvious in some markets, and will be everywhere just a few years from now. Denial does *not* help them master the inevitable -- and inevitably quick -- transition any better... The sooner they admit that radical changes are unavoidable, the better their chances of surviving this disruption.

    3. @Maarten it's happing pretty much everywhere, *including* Germany!

      Admittedly, the recent drop in PHEVs in Europe is largely attributable to most models being discontinued due to WLTP, and updated versions only slowly being re-introduced... However, while PHEVs will likely resume some growth, I don't believe they will ever regain their strength relative to BEVs. PHEVs simply do not change much over time -- while BEVs are becoming increasingly more exciting with each new model...

    4. Regarding legacy OEMs transition effort, while it is understandable that they wish a gradual transition, truth is that there are too many disruptive factors playing at the same time, making a quicker transformation than certain OEMs expected.

      So, the automotive status quo will no doubt change, with several Groups that had been dragging their feet on electrification now in big trouble, with bankrupcy in the horizon, if they don't team up with other Groups that have done their homework.

      Just look at Ford cozying up with VW (the Germans have the MEB platform, Ford has...well, nothing really, besides some lame PHEVs), or FCA desperately searching for a partner.

      BMW and Daimler are getting together, although none has really a forward thinking about the future, while Volvo should be glad they are dragged kicking and sreaming into electrification by their Chinese owners Geely.

      PSA is late to the party, but considering the large number of models launched soon, they might just get away with it.

      And then there's Tesla and the Chinese.

      Tesla is winning share every passing quarter in the Premium segment, thanks to the snail pace of its competitors, with the only competitor that has really understood the new reality and can steal customers from Tesla is Porsche, but they are specialized in the higher end of the category, so in the grand scheme of things, they will not hurt Tesla much.

      There are several Chinese OEMs aiming high, but few have the right ingredients for success (Volume production, appealing vehicles and specs), besides the obvious BYD, Geely is the most ambitious and commited, if they do not get caught in the hardest times of the transition (meaning, right now, as they are investing in expanding the plugin lineup, while losing revenue with lost ICE sales), now in play, maybe a year from now they will be a force to be reckoned with, and not only in China.

    5. Daimler is actually not among the legacy OEMs I'm most concerned about... Although they were late with BEVs, and are still pushing their PHEVs for now, they do plan to introduce a whole bunch of BEVs in the next few years. And despite planning to produce both BEVs and combustion cars on the same production lines, it does sound like they are actually developing an optimised BEV platform from scratch for these -- unlike BMW, Volvo/Polestar, or Jaguar/Land Rover. (Ironically, both BMW and Jaguar started with a dedicated platform for their first BEVs, but are walking backwards now...)

      Daimler's plans regarding volumes in 2025 aren't super ambitious, but not totally hopeless either -- unlike BMW or Toyota.

      Ford might also not be as hopeless as it seems. While not talking about it much, just like Toyota, they actually have been working on a dedicated BEV platform for several years already. The question is whether their goals are more ambitious than Toyota's...

      Thus the reason they will be using VW's MEB for their European model in 2023 is *not* that they don't have anything else. Maybe they are hoping for lower costs, with MEB volumes likely being much larger than what they expect for their own US-centric platform... Or maybe it's purely strategic. I have a suspicion that VW made it an explicit condition for them contributing to Ford's robo-taxi unit. Probably not a coincidence that they announced both at the same time?...

      Volvo/Polestar is an interesting case: while their volume plans are reasonably ambitious IIRC, with a shared platform their BEVs will inevitably be inferior, possibly making it hard to actually achieve the targets...

      Ironically, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi is also among the legacy OEMs I'm not entirely confident about right now: although they have had a head start with the Leaf and Zoe, it sounds like their dedicated universal BEV platform might not come before 2022 -- later than several of the other OEMs that seemed late to the BEV game...

  2. AnonymousJuly 15, 2019

    The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance has a substantial lead over the second place Kia-Hyundai duo while Jaguar Land Rover sales are nearly at the same level as sales from the BMW Group.

    From the posted data, Q22019 standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 511 units
    2nd Kia-Hyundai with 282 units
    3rd Volvo Car with 183 units
    4th Volkswagen Group with 109 units
    5th BMW Group with 87 units

  3. I don't see any Teslas on the list. Is Tesla not selling their cars in Iceland or are they just not making the top 20?

    1. I don't think Tesla officially sells to Iceland, so someone would have to get it imported if they were really keen. Probably too small a market for Tesla to worry about while they're sorting out the logistics of shipping worldwide.

    2. Are you serious? I'd say there should be little doubt that Model 3, and most likely also Model X, will be taking top places as soon as Tesla enters the market. (Which should be happening soon...)

    3. Tesla is not yet officially in Iceland.

  4. I don't expect to see a PEV-only top 10 here until 2021 or so, when Model Y, ID. CROZZ, XC40 BEV etc. are in full swing...

    1. Remember, Tesla will start soon, so the Model 3 will show up this year, and maybe even the Model S and X.

    2. Yes, I have no doubt that Model 3 will be near the top, and Model X will also likely end up pretty high. (Model S might not, as large sedans do not seem to be top sellers in Iceland in general...)

      However, that's not enough to push out all combustion cars from the top 10. That will require several more PEV models to become very popular -- and I'm not sure which one of the existing models could do that... Probably won't happen until a bunch of capable and affordable new BEV SUV/CUV models arrive.

      Note that the Leaf and the Yaris are the *only* models presently in the top 10 that are not SUVs/CUVs. (And Iceland is among the few places where this might actually be somewhat justified...)