Friday, July 12, 2019

Portugal June 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla in portugal
Tesla SC are getting crowded in Portugal

Record Month for Tesla

PEV Sales are hot as a summer afternoon in Lisbon, with 1.263 plugins being registered in June (5% share), up 75% YoY, and just 20 units behind the all-time record, registered last March (1.283 units).

This kind of performances, added to the decline of the overall market (-4% YoY), allows the 2019 PEV share to be at 4,7%, with this year count (5.988 units) being significantly higher (+58% YoY) than last year result.

And the result would even be better, if PHEVs weren't losing steam, with growth last month limited to just 10% YoY, which pales next to the BEV growth (+135%), which allows all-electric models to represent 64% of all plugin sales (70% in June), significantly ahead of last year result (54%) and their best result since 2014...

These great performances of BEVs in Portugal have one name: Tesla. 

Last month the Californian brand delivered a record 432 units, representing one third(!) of all plugin registrations, with both the Model S (92 units) and the Model X (65) scoring record results, all while the Model 3 stayed just 40 units behind its record, set last March (315 units), so it could hardly been a better month for the brand.

Moving on, if the Nissan Leaf remains in #1 (for how long?), followed by the hot Tesla Model 3, the #3 Renault Zoe also impressed, by scoring 145 registrations, its best result in 2019, an amazing performance, considering the revised Zoe is right around the corner.

Below the podium, the first position changes happened in #7 and #8, with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and Jaguar i-Pace climbing one position, while the BMW 225xe Active Tourer registered 50 units last month, allowing it to go up one position, to #11.

Interestingly, high end plugins are experiencing surging sales, with both the #13 Tesla Model S and #15 Model X jumping positions, and even the Porsche Panamera PHEV was up one position, to #18.  

It seems plugins are trendy among the wealthiest in Portugal…

We have a new face in the Top 20, with the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV reaching #20.

Interestingly, there is not one Volkswagen in the Top 20, and the only VW Group nameplate present is the Porsche Panamera PHEV(!), in #18...

In the manufacturers ranking, there's a new Number One, with Tesla now leading the way (21%), while Nissan (17%) tries to keep the #3 BMW (14%) at bay.

Outside the medal positions, Renault (9%) is the only close enough to bother the podium bearers.

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Mercedes C-Class
Tesla Model 3
BMW 3-Series
BMW 4-Series
Peugeot 508

Comparing the Model 3 deliveries against its midsize competitors, we can see that the Tesla midziser is making important inroads in a usually conservative (and German-loving) category, with the Model 3 reaching already the runner-up place.

With the leader Mercedes C-Class just 285 units ahead, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch if the Tesla started to pressure it by the end of the 3rd quarter, would it?

Interestingly, the Audi A4 sales are simply being decimated, with the German midsize model now being just #7, behind the successful Peugeot 508 and the #6 Volvo S/V60 twins...

Hear the alarm sound, Audi?

Tesla Model S & the ICE competition

BMW 5-Series
Mercedes E-Class
Volvo S/V90
Tesla Model S
Audi A6

Comparing the Model S deliveries against its premium competitors, we can see that the first two are profiting from the success of their subsidy-friendly PHEV versions, with approximately 40% of their sales coming from their plugin versions.

The Volvo S/V90 twins are a distant Third placed, and with the Swedes only 7 units ahead of a re-energized Model S, expect the Tesla flagship to reach the podium during the summer.

In 5th we have the Audi A6, miles behind their German rivals, which makes us wonder why...Oh right! The big Audi doesn't have a plugin version...

Tesla Model X & the ICE competition

LR Range Rover Sport
Tesla Model X
Volvo XC90
Mercedes GLE

Comparing the Model X deliveries against its premium competitors, we can see that the Tesla is close to the top position, with the Range Rover Sport benefitting from its PHEV version (74% of all the model sales) to outrun the Model X.

Will the Tesla Sports-Minivan-SUV be able to reach the leadership soon? Say...In September?

The Infrastructure conundrum: How the lack of a good infrastructure might delay EV adoption in Portugal. 

If PEV adoption seems to be going at full charge in Portugal, with the current 5% plugin share allowing it to be one of the Top 10 countries globally, the fact is that not everything is not everything is perfect, in fact, there is one important factor in EV adoption that is far, far, FAR, from being positive.

And that is Charging Infrastructure.

While plugins have been growing at a fast pace in the past years (+58% YoY in 2019), the local infrastructure is consistently growing at snail pace (+2%)…

...So you can imagine where this is taking, right?

According to EAFO, together with France, Portugal is the EU country with the highest number of BEVs per charging point (8), but it won't be long until Portugal becomes the sole leader, because in France EV adoption is growing at half the pace of Portugal but, an important aspect to remember, its charging infrastructure is growing at a 5% rate...Twice as much as in Portugal.

So, why this apparent dissonance between plugin sales and charging infrastructure? 

Of the three big charging operators, the passive attitude of GALP and PRIO are understandable, because they run their business selling fossil fuels, with charging stations being 0,00...01% of their business, so it is natural that both operators do not bother with expanding their network, as it would ultimately compete with their regular business.

As for the 3rd operator, the local utility EDP, it is beyond me why they are not betting in increasing the number of charging stations all over the country, as it would be an entirely new source of profit for them, and as seen in the graph, demand is there, namely in big cities and especially in Lisbon and Porto, where ride hailing companies (eg, Uber) are fast electrifying their fleet, which means there are always professional drivers in the local fast-chargers, flooding them even further than usual. 

That is why the average waiting time in those (single) 50 kW fast-chargers is around 1 (one) hour. 

I have wondered why isn't EDP expanding the network, and the only reasonable explanation i find is that it is waiting to receive some kind of government subsidy to build them, in other countries, the local operators receive(d) grants to implement the local infrastructure, but these subsidies were made with the intent to promote the infrastructure in places where they weren't yet commercially viable.

And in Portugal we are already well beyond that point, maybe in some places (Northeast, for example), subsidies still make sense, because the PEV fleet is still too small to feed a decent charging infrastructure, but in the most developed areas of the country, there are enough vehicles to feed a large expansion of the network, so they just need to get off their subsidy-addiction and start erecting the damn things!

IONITY would surely be welcome here, as the only functional, available and 100% reliable charging network is Tesla's Supercharger network, the rest is sparsely distributed, increasingly unreliable (heavy use and poor maintenance originate frequent downtimes), with laughable charging rates in many cases (3,7 kW charging stations are still common), while 50kw-plus charging rates still seem science fiction here…

All this is creating "Charging Anxiety", as people always fear that a given charging station can be either down, or will need to wait in queue.

This is starting to dampen demand, especially as we enter the mainstream market, people hear horror stories about the charging infrastructure and then think:

- Well, i would like to buy an EV, but then i would go on holidays to Algarve and would risk being stranded on the road, because there wouldn't be available charging stations on the way there…

That's the point, if the regulatory authorities continue to behave passively, then the lack of a decent charging infrastructure will delay the transport electrification in Portugal, so what can they do?


  1. AnonymousJuly 12, 2019

    Another market were the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance leads and in which surprisingly Tesla sales might be soon leapfrogged by the BMW Group and were Jaguar Land Rover achieves a relevant sales share.

    From the posted data, Q22019 standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 1825 units
    2nd Tesla with 1143 units
    3rd BMW Group with 1079 units
    4th Daimler with 613 units
    5th Jaguar Land Rover with 346 units

    1. It's the other way around: Tesla just leapfrogged BMW Group.

      (BMW might catch up again though at the beginning of the new quarter -- at least temporarily...)

  2. Could be...Unless you are the same Anonymous who posted in December this:"1400 Model 3 in 2019 ? Hahahaha.NOT BY A LONG SHOT ! By the looks of it won't even sell half of that."

    1. Your comment left me curious and i went back to the comments feed of the December article.

      Indeed that anonymous comment is funny now, it was predicting less than 700 Model 3 in 2019.

      Half year has passed and its already clocking 853 units.

      Hell, even my prediction at the time (1.400) now looks conservative.

      On the other hand the other two model forecast (2k Leaf and 2k Zoe) seem to be on target, the Japanese has 1.032 units by mid year, while the Zoe only has 547, but with the new Zoe coming around the corner, expect it to recover fast.

    2. To be honest, some of your European Model 3 predictions at the time seemed very optimistic to me... But it looks like this one at least is coming true :-)

  3. Not only this one, but as at half the year, we already are at
    - more than 10.000 deliveries in Norway for a 15.000 prediction; - some 5.300 in Germany for a 9.000 prediction;
    - some 3.200 in France for a 5.500 prediction;
    - and for Denmark we already are at some 1.100 for a prediction of...350;
    In Spain, there was no prediction but there was a comment: "Next year, winner BEV candidates might be found among Nissan, Hyundai/Kia. Many doubts that expensive Tesla's Model 3 will reach high standings", and for now, the Tesla Model is first with 1.050 deliveries and Nissan Leaf second with 1035, and Zoé is far behind at 551 deliveries waiting for the new 50 kWh version.
    Sure, there are countries where the actual deliveries are behind scheduled like:
    - Netherlands with some 6.000 devilries for a prediction of 14.000;
    - Austria with some 1.450 deliveries for a 4.000 prediction.

    1. With the upcoming incentive changes, I think there is a good chance that the Netherlands will pick up even more in the second half of the year, and thus still make the prediction...

      So that would leave Austria as the only likely miss? (Beside Spain...)

    2. Funny how some forecasts now seem conservative, when at the time they seemed quite bold (eg, Norway).

      Denmark in particular is mindblowing. How Tesla could disrupt that market so easily?