Thursday, October 16, 2014

China September 2014

KANDI: LOW-COST TESLA?
(On the right side of the picture there's a Geely Panda EV, probably the next addition to this ranking)


"Too Good To Be True?" Edition



We have record numbers, with some 5.300 plug-in cars being sold, and we are still missing the numbers from recent launches, like Denza or the Venucia e30...


The BYD Qin continues to impress (New record, ninth in a row, now at 1.700 units), while the #4 Zotye E20 sales have also excelled, jumping to 1.621 sales.

PlChinaSept  YTD%'13Pl
2BYD Qin1.7009.473229
3
4
5
6
7

Chery QQ3 EV e)
Zotye E20
Tesla Model S e)
BYD e6
BAIC E150 EV
Others
700
1.621
500
195
267
237
5.816
4.442
2.849
2.004
883
1.191
14
10
7
5
2
3
1
N/A
N/A
3
5


TOTAL11.99142.493100

p) Production numbers, not actual registrations;

e) Estimate

Source: http://www.chooseauto.com.cn/

18 comments:

  1. Jose, several media outlets are reporting a total of 38,163 new energy cars sold in China during the first nine months of 2014, see here: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/business/n/2014/1013/c90778-8794154.html

    And for the split between BEVs/PHEVs see here: http://www.wantinews.com/news-8938983-Automotive-industry:-September-new-car-sales-growth-accelerated-energy.html

    I hope this total figures help you to improve your estimates

    ReplyDelete
  2. May i ask how estimate tesla sales? Also on d1ev, it was said that BAIC manufactured 1500 ev in Sept, so i would expect sales to more then that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I prefer to present actual sales numbers instead of manufacturing ones, the Kandi numbers are production because i don't have actual sales, which is not the case for BAIC.

      Delete
    2. Could you provide some more insight on tesla numbers source?
      This would mean huge Q3 miss for thier sales target if true

      Delete
    3. It's based on past months, but numbers could be higher, i'm thinking actual sales were between 400-800 units.

      Yes, it will be difficult for Tesla to meet their sales target.

      Delete
  3. Jose, what's your source on the Kandi numbers? Why does production differ from registrations? Why don't other data sets or articles include Kandi? Is this because Kandi in is not classified as a car because top speed prevents from highway use? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Manufacturing cars don´t mean that they will go to the streets the next day, but sales do.

      Delete
  4. The EV market seems to be increasing quite well !

    ReplyDelete
  5. I could just remember all of those BBC and RT reports last year, mocking EV sales in China and else where.

    If you still need Irish sales as more content to post, you know where to get the details.

    http://www.beepbeep.ie/stats/?sYear%5B%5D=2014&sYear%5B%5D=&sRegType=1&sMonth%5B%5D=9&sMonth%5B%5D=9&sMake%5B%5D=BMW&sMake%5B%5D=Mitsubishi&sMake%5B%5D=Nissan&sMake%5B%5D=Renault&sMake%5B%5D=Tesla&sMake%5B%5D=Volkswagen&sRange%5B%5D=E%2BGOLF&sRange%5B%5D=I-MIEV&sRange%5B%5D=I3&sRange%5B%5D=I8&sRange%5B%5D=LEAF&sRange%5B%5D=MODEL%2BS&sRange%5B%5D=OUTLANDER&sRange%5B%5D=TWIZY&sRange%5B%5D=ZOE&x=20&y=12

    http://www.beepbeep.ie/stats/?sYear%5B%5D=2014&sYear%5B%5D=&sRegType=1&sMonth%5B%5D=9&sMonth%5B%5D=9&x=37&y=3

    Recap: 22 plug-ins sold, making 0.56% of overall share (I must've misread it before)! 0.2% of that came from 6 Outlander PHEVs and 2 BMW i3 RExes.

    As it goes:
    LEAF - 9
    Ourtlander PHEV - 6
    i3 - 3
    Twizy - 2
    Zoe - 1
    e-Golf - 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wonder how those "journalists" will put a negative focus on these numbers...

      Delete
    2. Journalists have been pumping that EV sales will double in 2014 or grow "exponentially". that is not really happening, other than Kandi in China. They have a little NEV type of car that many workers can afford. If you count Kandi, you may as well count EZ-Go golf carts in the USA... :)

      Delete
    3. True, a Kandi EV is a NEV vehicle, but what those kind of vehicle stand for in China is different than the average NEV in the USA, besides, that car is another big piece in a puzzle that Geely has been preparing, with Kandi playing in the low-cost segment, Geely in the middle and Volvo at the top, no other Automotive group has that kind of segmentation planned.

      You are right on one thing though, exponential sales are isolated cases, the norm is/will be a steady 30%/40% growth YoY.

      Delete
    4. I can totally see it now. They will either rush to point out the total percentage of sales that typically make less than 1%, but we know how that actually stacks up and compares to other markets. They would also be quick to point out how the EV boom in China was created though strong government influence.

      Delete
  6. 6700 units produced in 1 month is cca 220 per day
    that is HUGE for Kandi.
    I wonder if this figure is not in fact a "plan" of production for the next month (the factory orders)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's why the title is "Too Good To Be True?", i'm a bit skeptic on this number, Kandi might be going all "Tesla" on us, but right now it's the only available.

      Delete
    2. these sales figures tell a very different story:
      http://247wallst.com/autos/2014/07/14/the-electric-vehicle-maker-in-china-that-grew-over-200-sequentially/

      Delete
  7. Jose, Your hunch about "too good to be true" looks accurate. We've seen Kandi report its full Q3 on 11/10/2014 and looks like they only supplied to 1,950 EV units for the QUARTER. 6,771 for the MONTH of September alone looks like a really bad input relative to the actual numbers filed with the US SEC.

    ReplyDelete