Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Warning Lights - How Tesla's Hype is ending

Don't Believe the Hype?

A lot has been said about the hype created by Tesla and the media regarding the past October 9th event, Elon Musk sent the bait and many went after it, making different guesses about what it was, Model S AWD, Model X, Model III? Some other kind of trick?

When the announcement was made, the AWD Model S and a Driving Aid System, many were disappointed with the Next-Big-Deal-That-After-All-It-Was-Not-That-Big.

The same kind of news in a manufacturer like BMW, at best would be just another major AutoShow announcement, among other more important launches.

Sure, Tesla in not any other automaker, it doesn't have a large portfolio and it is scrutinized in the media like no other Auto Brand, but that would be another reason for Tesla to take more attention on the Hype around it.

The recent disinvestment in Tesla made by Daimler and Toyota should be seen in a larger picture, the California-based manufacturer stocks are falling, and many doubts are arising regarding the long-term future of Tesla.

Tesla 2012 - Bright future

When the Model S landed two years ago, one could say that it was years ahead of the competition, not only because it was an electric car like no other, with power and range enough to scare many of the best ICE cars, but the whole concept regarding service, sales, charging stations, among other features, was something completely different.

The competition was caught with the trousers down, still in early stages of development for their electric cars or deciding wether to go full on to plug-ins, and couldn't respond to it, making Infinity even go back at the drawing board with the LE.

When will the X be a reality?

Tesla 2014 - Clouds on the Horizon

Currently Tesla is no longer a North American/Euro curiosity, their sales network is spread across the globe and the Supercharging stations are growing fast across the major markets, with Tesla owners being able to cross continents without any kind of range anxiety.

Sales grew exponentially in two years, with 3.000 units/month now the norm for the automaker, and they are now prepared to jump production two fold, with the help of the upcoming Model X.

It's here that things start to lose some grip, because the timetable for the Model X is delayed for quite some time now, for a car that it would be on sale late this year, the production-ready car is still to be presented and there are no signs of coming soon, so an optimistic view would see it being revealed in December / early January (Perhaps by the time of the Detroit Auto Show), first demonstration units in February/March and mass volume by April/May, if this timetable comes true, the delay won't be that damaging, but if Tesla delays it more than these 6 months, the SUV segment will start to be crowded by Porsche, Volvo, Mitsubishi, etc

Even the Model S didn't had that much updates during this period, if at the time it was launched it was 5 to 10 years ahead of the competition, the gap is now reduced and the competitors are recovering fast, with rumors that in three years time they will be where the Model S is now. And how will be Model S in 2017? It will be probably redesigned, but with funds going for the development for the Model III, don't expect for a huge leap in the refreshed  Tesla sedan.

My favorite rendering for the Model III...

Tesla Model III - Moment Of Truth

It will be with the Model III, that will come the crucial moment for the long-term survival of an independent Gigafactoried Tesla, if it achieves the ambitious goals set by Elon Musk, the battery-production scale will help it become profitable and win those needed funds to add more models to the lineup and assure the long-term profitability.

But, for that to happen, they will have to market it sooner than later, because others are already pushing their EV's for the same kind of product (300 kms range, price in the 30k's USD) in 2016/7, if they can push the Model III to the market before that timetable, they will have a window of opportunity for success, if not, others will eat Tesla's lunch.

...And the LEAST favorite.


  1. What a massive load of bovine feces. I am shocked at the nonsense at an EV site.

    Tesla stock closed up 9.5% Today. Over $242. $17 at IPO And $164 a year ago.

    Tesla's D is not just another BMW type AWD system. It is a dual motor system more energy efficient than RWD. No one else does that. The ability to switch torque from front to rear is much quicker, electric digital vs mechanical analog. Better traction,performance,and efficiency.

    Much of the Auto Pilot in Dec will be catch up but will soon surpass systems like Mercedes Intelligent Drive.

    Tesla's lead is growing. Mitsubishi et al do not have competitors to Tesla Model X but compromised PHEVs. Twice the powertrains, twice the complexity, and much more weight. And still carbon spewing, vibrating, loud petrol guzzlers.

    Others are not catching up but falling further behind. No investment in battery production capacity means falling further behind. No investment in fast charging network falls further behind. What is the point of making great BEV if you can only produce 10k units because you have limited battery cell supply and you can't fast charge it conveniently?

    The so called competitors are limited capacity economy compacts.

    And Vaporware from Cadillac, Audi,Porsche, MB and BMW.

    Anybody can make statistics up and say they will build in 2018 - 2021.

    I am starting my own electric car company. We will build a mid-size crossover with 500 miles of EPA range with full spec luxury appointments for the US $30k in 2021. See easy.

    We have seen three iterations of the Supercharger. 90 kWh 120 kWh and 135 kWh.

    A massive leap forward for Model S 2.0 will be a new battery cell. From 245 watt/kilogram to 300 watt/kg at reduced cost. And I am positive Tesla has other goodies hidden from public view. Revenues will jump next quarter from ~US $800M to $1.3B in Q4 2014 and grow from there. No starving of the R& D budget. Additionally, Tesla has show multiple times its ability to raise outside capital.

    No Confederacy of Idiots but Elon making quick decisions . Not always right but right much more often than not.

    Not worried about eating their own ICE lunch nor foolishly spending precious research dollars on fuel cells and hydrogen autobahns. Absolutely committed to the BEV.

    Nobody is eating Tesla's lunch. Tesla will be feasting for years to come.

    1. agree 100%

      So far everything that other companies have make against Tesla is just talk. If they release in 2015 the Model X and the new roadster means they are already playing in all the luxury main fields. And the rest of the companies that are more close to them are the ones how are begging to admit they made a big mistake not jumping for electric long time ago.

    2. CMCNestT is just f'cked up, buying Tesal shares at $290. Other EV makers are outselling Tesla for months. They use common charging standards and common battery cells, no need to make giant investments for these. They will not eat Tesla's lunch. They will eat Tesla as their lunch.

      The article is exactly correct. Tesla has lost whatever early mover advantage it had. The numbers show it all too clearly.

    3. Im not sure in what parallel universe you are, but just in case is the real one, please, show me the truth and reveal this numbers you are talking about.

    4. Anonymous,

      "..Other EV makers are outselling Tesla for months..."

      Uhm, no, your use of the plural form is erroneous. Only _one_ fully electric vehicle is outselling the Model S. And it is about 1/4 of the price, so that doesn't make it an earth shattering achievement.

      "They use common charging standards..."

      Which, at a measly 50 kW, are totally unsuitable for _fast_ charging a Model S. The existing standards just weren't good enough, and the Supercharger network is a keystone to the success of Tesla.

      "...and common battery cells,"

      The opposite is true: Tesla uses mass fabricated standard 18650 cells, while the competitors each developed their own, proprietary, large format cells.

      It is painfully obvious you know not what you are talking about.

  2. You opened a can of worms, watch Teslanairs jump you like rabid zombie dogs, nobodys dare to tell them their money will not tripple next 2 years.
    You can go back in history and look at companies whose CEO pumped thier own stock in press or now in twitter, look how they turned out, wouldnt wabt to buy them