Wednesday, July 12, 2017

USA June 2017

Image result for Tesla Model 3 #1
Tesla Model 3, VIN 0000001. Surely the first of millions. And the dawn of a new era.

Waiting for Godot Model 3

The US market registered over 17.000 units, with YoY sales growing 16%, leaving the YTD EV Share north of 1%, the US market is headed for a record year, with December surely surpassing the 250.000 units landmark, and 300.000 units still a possibility.

While the arrival of the most maddly antecipated vehicle since, well...Ever, does not happens, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter peak, winning the top two places, with the Model S (2.350 deliveries) outrunning its baby brother, the Model X (2.200), allowing the older model to recover the US YTD leadership.

Interestingly, this was the slowest peak month since Tesla has two models, while looking only to the Model S performance, it was its worst deliveries month since September 2015, when the Model X was officially launched...Is it a coincidence that now the Model 3 is weeks away from landing, deliveries have slowed down? Probably not, Tesla has now shifted priorities into the smaller model production ramp up, so S and X buyers will probably have to wait a little longer for their high end EVs. 

By the way, did you know that there are other PEVs on sale not named Tesla? Yes, they are not so media and Google friendly, but they (still) make the bulk of sales, among them, there are a couple of interesting points to notice:

- The BMW 330e reached a record 496 deliveries, the same happened with the 530e (239 deliveries), while the X5 PHEV hit a year best performance (488 units), so it seems BMW is opening the production gates for their short range PHEVs;

- The good old Nissan Leaf hit a year best(!), with 1.506 units being sold last month, an impressive feat, considering a much improved version is just months away...

- As the number of states where the problem child Chevrolet Bolt is available increases, the small BEV hits (small) record performances month after month, with the 1.642 being delivered representing its third record in a row. Interestingly, its Volt sibling registered only 1.745 units in June, its worst result since January and down 10% YoY. Is the new kid on the block beggining to hurt the plug-in hybrid model sales? 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (23%, up 2%) has distanced itself from the Second Placed Chevrolet (21%). Looking forward, while Chevrolet will get a (small) boost in sales from the nationwide availability of its Bolt, Tesla should trounce it by year end, once the Model 3 production hit volume numbers.

 The race for Third place is also close, with Ford (12%) resisting (For how long?) Toyota (11%).

Pl
USA
June
YTD
%
1
Tesla Model S e)
2.350
11195
13
2
Chevrolet Volt
1.745
10932
12
3
Toyota Prius Prime
1.619
9.692
11
4
Tesla Model X e)
2.200
8.945
10
5
Chevrolet Bolt
1.642
7.592
9
6
Nissan Leaf
1.506
7.248
8
7
Ford Fusion Energi
707
5.057
6
8
Ford C-Max Energi
936
4.409
5
9
10
Fiat 500e
BMW i3
495
567
3.828
2.992
4
3
11
BMW X5 PHEV
488
2.146
2
12
Audi A3 e-Tron
324
2.120
2
13
14
15
Volkswagen e-Golf
BMW 330e
Hyu. Sonata PHEV
232
496
255
1.887
1.869
1.415
2
2
2
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

C. Pacifica PHEV
Ford Focus electric
Por. Cayenne PHEV
Kia Soul EV

Volvo XC90 PHEV
Mercedes S500e
BMW 530e
Kia Optima PHEV
Mercedes B250e
BMW 740e
Mercedes C350e
Mercedes GLE550e
BMW i8
Hyundai Ioniq Elec.
Smart Fortwo ED
Cadillac CT6 PHEV
Cadillac ELR
Chevr. Spark EV
Mini Country. PHEV
Others
355
110
195
100
202
81
239
78
46
52

41
22
58
3
20
7
1
10

1.407
1.058
978
836
775
411
399
390
317
303
288
268
220
157
57
42
14
13
10
15
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
17182
89285
100

 e) Estimate


Source: insideevs.com; goodcarbadcar.com


Tesla Model S & Others


Pl
Model
June Sales  
1
Mercedes E/CLS-Class
4.316
2
BMW 5-Series
4.068
3
Tesla Model S e)
2.350
4
Audi A6
1.425
5
Mercedes S-Class
1.169



Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, both the Mercedes E/CLS-Class and BMW 5-Series benefit from volume deliveries of the new generation to stay well above the other models, with the Tesla Model S staying in its usual Third Place. 

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming Model 3 will cannibalize sufficient sales of the Model S, that forces it to drop it from its usual Bronze Model.

As for the Tesla Model X, its 2.200 units are not enough to reach the Top 5 in its class (#5 was the Volvo XC90, with 2.751 registrations), not only it has more competition to deal with, but also higher numbers to reach (Usually high end SUVs sell two to three times more than their sedan siblings), proving once again that the Tesla SUV should have been doing much better (Around 3.000 units/month) than its five year old brother.

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