 |
| The 2018 Best Seller? |
The Earth is Moving in Germany
The PEV Fever has definitely caught on in Germany, with December scoring another 6.000-plus result, a 126% increase YoY, with the December PEV Share reaching a record 2.5% result, while the 2017 PEV share ended at a record 1.6%, doubling the 2016 result. Will it double again this year?
While it's still too early to see when the German PEV market reaches 3%, looking at the 2017 results of the German auto market, we can notice some seismic changes, with Diesel sales down 13%, to the profit of every other type of fuel: If PEVs are the fastest growing (+118%) technology, HEVs (+66%), LPG (+47%) and CNG (+15%) vehicles are also up. Hell, even Gasoline cars are growing! (+14%)
Basically, people are running away from Diesel to every other type of technology...Who would have though this would happen in 2014?
While it's still too early to see when the German PEV market reaches 3%, looking at the 2017 results of the German auto market, we can notice some seismic changes, with Diesel sales down 13%, to the profit of every other type of fuel: If PEVs are the fastest growing (+118%) technology, HEVs (+66%), LPG (+47%) and CNG (+15%) vehicles are also up. Hell, even Gasoline cars are growing! (+14%)
Basically, people are running away from Diesel to every other type of technology...Who would have though this would happen in 2014?
Looking at December Best Selling models, the Smart Fortwo ED registrations went through the roof, scoring an amazing 1.152 deliveries, representing 40% of all Fortwo sales, and being the first time a single model scores a four digit performance in a single month.
Another model in High Voltage is the BMW i3, reaching the Bronze medal, with 562 units, the Hot Hatch best result ever, while the Renault Zoe delivered 301 units, its best result since August.
| Pl | Model |
Sales
| ||
| 1 | Smart Fortwo ED | 1.152 | ||
| 2 |
BMW i3
| 562 | ||
| 3 |
| 422 | ||
| 4 |
BMW 225xe A. Tourer
| 373 | ||
| 5 |
Renault Zoe
| 301 |
In a highly fragmented market, where the leader Audi A3 e-Tron had only 8% share and the Third Placed Renault Zoe ended just 135 behind the winner, the leadership was a hard fought battle, with the Audi model winning for the first time the Best Seller title, leaving the Renault Zoe in Second, while the previous year winner BMW i3 was Third, just 3 units behind the French hatchback...
In December the most relevant change was the Smart Fortwo ED jumping to #6, with its (slightly) larger sibling, the Forfour ED, also climbing to #21. How high will the tiny two seater go in 2018? Do i hear medals? The Gold one?
Looking at other position changes, the VW e-Golf ended in #5, its highest standing to date, all thanks to the new 36 kWh version, while the e-Up! sibling also climbed one position, to #15, at the expense of the 2017 Rookie of the Year, the BMW 530e.
The Volvo XC60 PHEV joined the Top 30, at #29, in the last month of the year, thanks to a presonal best score of 93 units.
In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (21%) won its third makers title, with Volkswagen (16%, up 1%) repeating the 2016 Second Place, while Mercedes (11%) secured the Bronze medal, ahead of Audi.
Regarding the BEV/PHEV share, BEVs outsold plug-in hybrids in December (54% vs 46%), but looking at the 2017 final numbers, PHEVs outnumbered all-electric vehicles (54% vs 46%).
A final mention to the LCV category, where the DHL Streetscooter Work van was the hands down winner, with the 2017 tally ending at 3.863 units, which represented 87% of all plug-in sales in this category, and would place it in Fourth Place, if it were to join the passenger cars ranking.
| Pl | Germany | Dec. | YTD | % | '16 Pl |
| 1 2 | Audi A3 e-Tron Renault Zoe | 245 301 | 4.454 4.322 | 8 8 | 4 2 |
| 3 4 | BMW i3 BMW 225xe Active Tour. |
562
373
| 4.319 3.680 | 8 7 | 1 10 |
| 5 6 | Volkswagen e-Golf Smart Fortwo ED |
422
1.152
| 3.026 2.987 |
6
6
|
12
35
|
| 7 | Kia Soul EV | 296 | 2.933 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Tesla Model S | 213 | 2.241 | 4 | 5 |
| 9
9
11 | Volkswagen Passat GTE Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Mercedes GLC350e |
291
113
295
|
2.234
2.234
2.162
| 4 4 4 |
9
6 23 |
| 12 13 | Volkswagen Golf GTE Mercedes C350e e) |
207
58
|
1.935
1.225
| 4 2 | 8 15 |
| 14 15 16 17 | Tesla Model X Volkswagen e-Up! BMW 530e Por. Panamera PHEV |
77
108 89
115
|
1.090
1.078 1.075
955
| 2 2 2 2 | 19 17 N/A 30 |
| 18 | Mercedes E350e |
79
| 895 | 2 | 32 |
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
|
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Nissan Leaf Smart Forfour ED
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Kia Niro PHEV
Volvo XC90 T8 BMW 330e Mercedes B250e
Mini Countryman PHEV
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Volvo XC60 PHEV
BMW 740e
Others
|
92
51
160
73
113
78
49
20
108
24
93
28
403
|
881
841 758 680 667 580 574 542 504 489 381 321
3.499
|
2
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7
|
36
30 N/A 13 N/A 13 20 18 N/A
25
N/A
27 |
TOTAL
|
6.288
|
53.562
|
100
|
Source: kba.de
Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids
Pl
|
Model
|
Dec. Sales
|
1
|
Smart Fortwo ED
|
1.152
|
2
|
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
|
990
|
3
|
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
|
633
|
4
|
BMW i3
|
562
|
5
|
Toyota Auris Hybrid
|
535
|
As plug-ins reach new heights, regular hybrids are feeling the heat and being reached by PEVs, in a class that used to be completely owned by Toyota, with the Yaris, Auris Hybrids chronically in the top two positions, the Smart Fortwo ED took over the top position, relegating the once almighty Yaris Hybrid to Second Place.
Another plug-in reached the Top 5, with the BMW i3 reaching Fourth Place.
Another plug-in reached the Top 5, with the BMW i3 reaching Fourth Place.
Tesla Model S & Others
Pl
|
Model
|
Dec. Sales
|
1
|
Mercedes S-Class
|
525
|
2
|
BMW 7-Series
|
371
|
3
|
Porsche Panamera
|
287
|
4
|
BMW 6-Series
|
234
|
5
|
Tesla Model S
|
213
|
As the Tesla Sports Sedan reaches historic high levels, it is time to see if it can make a dent on the German flagship models, if the top two positions seem out of range, the remaining places could be reached, will it reach Third during 2018?
But back to December, the Model S from Tesla was Fifth, with 213 units, a 33% increase over the 160 deliveries of December '16.
PHEV+BEV Germany :
ReplyDelete2016 = ~27000 VS 2017 = ~54000 (+100% and even, as you said, et +126% for PHEVs !)
PHEV+BEV France:
2016: ~34000 including ~11600 Zoé
2017: ~36000 including ~15000 Zoé
I conclude that "large european" market is now in term of figures:
1. Norway (62k)
2. Germany (54k)
3. France (36k)
The UK is also one of the big ones (48k).
DeleteThere are also two smaller, but significant markets: Sweden (20k) and Belgium (15k), making 6 markets above the 10k.
Great momentum in Germany. 2018 should be even better with the Nissan Leaf coming online and VW doubling eGolf production. I don't think the Model 3 will make any impact here until 2019.
ReplyDeleteI agree, the production increase of the e-Golf will make a big impact.
DeleteAs for the Model 3, do not expect major volumes before early 2019, the last quarter of 2018 should only be a token amount of units, mostly to Norway, with Switzerland, Germany and Netherlands only receiving a (small) volume of units in December'18.
And where is Ampera E? Will it be sold in Germany in 2018?
ReplyDeleteIt is being delivered already, but in small numbers: 231 registrations.
DeleteFor 2018, my guess is that GM allocates some 2000 units for Germany.
With the Ampera-e, it's not a question of demand, but of production availability.
still do not understand the choice of "competitors" in "Tesla Model S & Others" section. Model S should be compared with BMW 5 Series, Mercedes E Class and Audi A6 regarding price and size as well as luxury feeling and equipment.
ReplyDeletestill do not understand the choice of "competitors" in "Tesla Model S & Others" section. Model S should be compared with BMW 5 Series, Mercedes E Class and Audi A6 regarding price and size as well as luxury feeling and equipment.
ReplyDeleteI see what you mean, and i agree with your point, that is why i compare the Model S with those models in the USA, Canada and other markets.
DeleteThing is, in Germany the sales of the 5-Series et all are measured in the thousands, a league above where the Tesla currently plays.
That is why originally i only compared the S with other high end Sport Sedans (Audi A7, Merc CLS...).
As time passed by, the Model S started to outsell them regularly, so i joined the Top end models (Audi A8, 7-Series...) to the mix.
If Tesla starts to outsell them too (Possible, but unlikely), then i will add the 5-Series and remaining models.
but Ampera-e belongs to PSA now, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteYes, but GM still makes them in the US.
DeleteThere was a lot of discussion regarding the property rights on the Ampera-e, during the Opel buyout, and apparently GM kept the rights to themselves, meaning that PSA can't make them in Europe, but instead has to buy each unit from GM.
I know that it's maybe little late to ask but can you write down the numbers for Model S vs there competitors for the hole year?
ReplyDeleteSorry, currently i do not have that data available, but i would guess it won't be that different from the December standings.
Delete