Friday, October 12, 2018

Canada September 2018



Back to Earth

After an historic June, September registered 4,400 units, the second best month sharewise, with 2.5% in September, the disruptive force of the Tesla Model 3 was felt once again, with the Tesla midsizer reaching last month leadership. Yet, it was only the second Best Selling Monthly title won by the Californian in its five months career in Canada, but more on that below... 

Looking at the PEV share, thanks the the aforementioned 2.5% performance (only below the historic 3.2% of June), the 2018 share grew to new heights, now at 2.2%.

As previously said, after the June lanslide win, September was only the second time that the Tesla Model 3 was Best Seller, which could mean that Tesla is prioritizing the US market, but could also be the case that the Model 3 demand North of the Border is not so overwhelming as in its home market.

Considering that the Tesla nameplate benefits from the home advantage in US soil, its Canada career could foretell the midsizer success overseas, like it was the case of the Model S and X before it.

Due to this irregular behavior, the Tesla Model 3 is only Third in the PEV ranking, below the leader Nissan Leaf (605 units last month, third best result ever) and the popular Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.  

The #4 Chevrolet Volt had its worst result in 31 months, with only 136 units, which can only result from the MY 2019 transition change. 

Elsewhere, the VW e-Golf climbed one position to #11, while the BMW i3 was up to #17.

Regarding the manufacturers podium, Tesla (19%) is the new leader, dropping the chronical leader Chevrolet (16%) to Second Place, while Nissan and Mitsubishi (both with 13%) are running for Third.




Tesla Model 3 vs The Others 

Pl
Model
2018
1
Mercedes C-Class 
7,934
2
BMW 3-Series
4,959
3
Audi A4
4,556
4
5
Tesla Model 3
Audi A5
4,325
3,667

Due to the irregular career, and despite two class wins (June and September), the Tesla Model 3 hasn't yet reached the class podium, maintaining the Tesla Model 3 in Fourth Place on the 2018 ranking, although the Californian could surpass the Audi and BMW models soon. 

As for the Mercedes C-Class, things are trickier, as the Merc usually registers some 1,000 units/month performances, so i guess the Model 3 will only be able to outsell it next year, once the Short Range version is effectively on the roads.

Another interesting fact is that, with the exception of the Audi A5, the other ICE models are having sales drops, so the Model 3, added to the SUV craze, is reshaping the Midsize Luxury Car market. 



Tesla Model S vs The Others 

Pl
Model
2018
1
Mercedes E & CLS-Class 
2,582
2
BMW 5-Series
2,012
3

Tesla Model S
788
4
5
Mercedes S-Class
Porsche Panamera
783
676

Unlike its younger sibling, the Model S is clockwork predictable, two slow selling months followed by a hot selling one, allows it to be Third in its class since...Well, since it landed in Canada. 

And yet, the distance it used to had regarding the competition behind it was much more significant, so we could see it slide down in the coming future.

And unlike in the midsize segment, the Model S competition is growing YoY, with the Porsche Panamera in particular going up 39% regarding last year.

A final note for the Tesla Model X, despite now selling above its Model S sibling, with 1,224 deliveries so far this year, the Sports SUV is just #7 in its class, well behind the leader Mercedes GLE (5,793 units). 

16 comments:

  1. Jose,

    Look at the Smart Fortwo ED (position 20).

    "364"

    Is that correct?

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  2. Do you have the numbers for August?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, send me an email: efeelblog@gmail.com

      Delete
  3. Jose,

    Regarding China September 2018:

    "Sales of new-energy vehicles – a category comprising electric battery cars and plug-in electric hybrid vehicles – remained strong, rising 55 percent in September, slightly faster than a month earlier."

    That's wholesale, I think.

    Probably more than 90,000 Plug-In sales in China in September 2018.

    But overall vehicle sales (ICE) have decreased 12% in China in September 2018.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jose,

    InsideEVs has posted an article about BYD Plug-In sales numbers in China in September 2018.

    "In September, BYD set its fourth all-time record of plug-in car sales in a row, reaching 25,019 – over 4,000 above the record from August. Pace of growth increased to 121% year-over-year!"

    "The nine-month tally stands at 135,337. With three months to go, the target of 200,000 in 2018 is considered easy now."

    "BYD sales breakdown:

    Tang PHEV – 6,019 (3rd full month of second-generation and new record)
    Yuan BEV – 5,008 (4th month on the market and another record)
    e5 – 4,265 (almost record)
    Qin PHEV – 3,866 + 1,207 BEV
    Song PHEV – 3,014 + 132 BEV
    e6 – 1,508"

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  5. The Model 3 only did well in September because it was a) the last month of the quarter which Tesla sees high delivery numbers and b) Tax credits were taken away. Q4 is not going to look great for Tesla and I expect 2017 numbers if not less.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @ Matt B

      The US Federal tax credit for Tesla EV's will be cut in half as from 1 January 2019. Nothing is going to change in Q4 2018.

      Cheers

      Delete
    2. I think Matt B. was talking about Canada numbers only. In fact, we don't know how Ontario Gov. dealt with the judgement it lost against. Maybe high numbers of TM3 deliveries could be related to any settlement between the two parts, which might not happened again this year.
      In the other hand, we are almost sure that Tesla will deliver a lot of cars in Canada in December, as usual in all past years, and, if we add that last year no TM3 were delivered there, we can account for sure that the overall Tesla deliveries in Q4 2018 in Canad will be higher than in Q4 2017.

      Delete
  6. José, in www.tinyurl.com/CanadaEVSales, the chart was updated with definitive september numbers with 186 Model 3 sold, 230 Model S and 318 Model X

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Was in a hurry and wrote 186 instead of 1860 instead. My bad!

      Delete
  7. Definitive sales numbers are out for October: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLFJwZVdvNLRpmZqPznlzz6PB9eHMe5b-bai_ddRsNg/edit#gid=25

    ReplyDelete