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| "Kiss my back, b*****s!" |
Tesla Model 3 #1 in February
After a great January, the German PEV passenger car market continued on the right track in February, up 24% to 6,618 registrations, with BEVs continuing to increase its share (70%, +1%) against PHEVs.
With the mainstream market posting its first positive result in 6 months (+3%), the PEV Share dropped 0.1% in February, to 2.5%, the same result as in the 2019 share, with BEVs alone hitting 1.8%.
Looking at February Best Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 landed with a bang (where have i heard this before?), by delivering 959 units and jumping straight into the leadership, displacing the usual leader Renault Zoe, that registered 782 units.
The BMW i3 was 3rd, thanks to a near-record performance of 694 deliveries, while behind it we have the solid-as-cement Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that registered 544 units, the SUV best result ever(!) in its 5 year career in this market.
But the surprise of the month was the Hyundai Kona EV reaching the 5th Spot, that with 400 deliveries, broke its personal best for the 4th(!) consecutive month. Will we see it more often here? You bet you will...
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Tesla Model 3
|
959
|
2
|
Renault Zoe
|
782
|
3
|
BMW i3
|
694
|
4
|
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
|
544
|
5
|
Hyundai Kona EV
|
400
|
The German PEV market is known for close races and constant changes, and last month was no exception, first of all, the BMW i3 rose to #2, benefitting from the dysmal performance of the VW e-Golf, that with only 281 units, it had its worst result in the last 6 months...Is the German hatchback already feeling the heat coming from the Tesla Model 3 and remaining long range BEVs?
The BMW 225xe A.Tourer recovered from a terrible January and registered 335 units in February, allowing it to jump back into the Top 10, in #9.
Outside the Top 20, we should mention the record 92 deliveries of the Jaguar i-Pace and the 58 registrations of the Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV, two nameplates that have been slowly, but steadily, ramping up sales and could be a Top 20 presence soon.
In the brands ranking, BMW (19%, up 2%) is in the leadership, ahead of the #2 Renault (12%) and #3 Volkswagen (9%, down 3%), that experienced a steep fall, and now has Hyundai (9%) and Tesla (8%) running just behind it.
Will we see Tesla reach the brands podium next month?
Will we see Tesla reach the brands podium next month?
Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition
Pl
|
Model
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Sales
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1
|
Mercedes C-Class
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4,774
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2
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Audi A4
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3,951
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3
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BMW 3-Series
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2,374
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4
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Audi A5
|
1,620
|
5
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Tesla Model 3
|
959
|
One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?
The answer is now starting to be written, comparing the Model 3 deliveries in its first month on the market, against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that the local heroes are still significantly ahead, although the Audi A5 is already seeing the Tesla in the rear view mirror...
Also interesting is to see that while the Audi's and the BMW model sales are stagnating, at best, the Mercedes C-Class is up 9% YoY, so it seems Mercedes customers are more immune to the Tesla fever than others.
Good to see the market holding up well.
ReplyDeleteFor Tesla Model 3 I hope we can see these numbers increase. They are beating this month the BMW i3 by 200 units only - a 6 year old car made for marketing purposes and not what you would call good value for money.
Then I hope to see Tesla introduce their lower end models to Germany really soon. The VW ID watch is ticking with orders starting beginning of May.
Anyways, looking forward to see some movement once the E-tron hits fully.
If I remember correctly Tesla started to deliver Model 3 around the 20th of February so I would be really surprise if that number don't increase a lot in March.
DeleteOf course the numbers will increase. Tesla has a back log of a few thousand orders for the Model 3 in Germany so you are going to see March and most likely April with very high numbers but than those numbers will drop come May when the orders become organic.
DeleteI expect the European numbers to drop in April already, since March production is likely mostly US-bound. European deliveries will pick up again towards the end of Q2 -- but likely not quite as much as in March, since Tesla will be busy delivering SR in the US before the next incentive drop. Cheaper variants will likely be introduced in Europe after that, resulting in another peak in September.
DeleteI don't think we will see demand stabilise at "organic" levels before next year...
It is true that a great (24%) increase in PEV sales is happening but is sad to realise it is still a very small volume overall, since the mainstream market still holds 97,5% of it.
ReplyDeleteAt least, we can celebrate the rise of new stars to considerable volumes, while the usual trio e-Golf, Zoe and i3 still manage to keep around the Top3 positions. What to expect from the new wave os PHEVs and how will the Leaf fare until the arrival of the 60kWh version?
For some reason unknown to me, the VW eGolf often starts the year with a bang to follow with a dismal second month.
ReplyDeleteThe Nissan Leaf will see its 60kWh successor in a few months. It won't be a dip like the previous one when the 40kWh Leaf II was announced.
Still not happy that they sacrificed European sales to rescue USA sales, but that is a corporate decision.
I don't think the 60 kWh variant is an actual successor: AIUI both will remain available at the same time?
DeleteAlso, I don't think they "sacrificed" anything. The European, North American, and Japanese Leafs are all made in their own facilities. Not sure why the European is starting production of the new variant late. Some suggest it may be due to Brexit-related uncertainties... My own suspicion is that they still have a fairly large backlog of orders for the 40 kWh variant, that they need to work through before new orders for the 60 kWh one get to the front of the queue.
The goal was to reach 1 mill carscars by 2020, yet this seems far off. The market needs urgently a competitive mass market model. Model 3 is it not. The numbers are disappointingly low.
ReplyDeleteThat goal was a joke from the beginning. The government set this goal, but for years did absolutely nothing to achieve it. They finally decided to introduce a (rather tiny) incentive when it was already way too late to reach such numbers in time.
DeleteI do not see Tesla ever selling 1 million cars a year. Musk claims that Tesla will see 350-500K model 3 in 2019 despite its biggest market, The US, showing a huge decline in orders from Q3/Q4 to Q1 2019. Not to mention unless that demand picks up EU and China picks up the slack I will be surprised if they sell 150k Model 3 in 2019.
DeleteThe Model S/X demand has been flat since Q3 2016. The last few quarters their numbers had to be propped up by fleet sales. With competition coming in 2019, I expect the demand for the Model S/X to drop. I do not see how Tesla can sell 1 million cars in 2020 at this rate even if the Model Y comes out which will not be until late Q3, Q4 2020.
I believe he was talking about the German government goal of having one million EVs on the streets by 2020?...
DeleteDon't remember whether at some point Tesla hoped to deliver one million cars in 2020. The latest (on-the-spot) estimate from Elon was some 700,000 - 800,000. If the Model 3 does well, and Model Y ramp goes smooth, that might be achievable... Though I wouldn't bet on it. One million is quite likely by 2021.
The January/February US deliveries are *not* reflecting sustained demand: they are depressed by demand pull-forward before the incentive change. So even with only $43,000+ variants available, sustained demand should be well above 10,000 per month. Starting at $35,000, the market is expected to be much bigger. I'd be pretty surprised if it turns out to be significantly below ~20,000 per month in the US alone.