Saturday, March 30, 2019

Global Top 20 - February 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 boatload




Models: Tesla Model 3 back at #1 in slowing market

After an amazing January, registrations slowed down significantly, growing just 31%  YoY in February, to over 110.000 units. 

It is important to signal that last month, registrations were above 100.000 units, and because the first two months of the year are historically the two slowest selling of each year, if both stayed above the 100k mark, it will mean that from now on, we will see always six-figure performances. And to think the first time that the global market surpassed the 100k in one month was little more than two years ago (December 2016)... 

BEVs grew faster than the plugin average, at 55% YoY, allowing them to no have 70% of the market (71% YTD), while the Global PEV share slowed down from last month result of 1.9%, to only 1.4%, with the 2019 result now at 1.7%. 

With March promising to be a record-breaking month in several markets, it looks like a global 2%-plus score can be achieved next month.

With the Chinese EV market slowing down significantly in February (holiday season, over there), the assault made in January was reversed last month, not only the Tesla Model 3 recovered its natural place (leadership), dropping the BYD Yuan EV to 2nd Place, but most Chinese models lost positions, with only three  of them improving positions (BYD Tang PHEV climbed one position to #4, Chery eQ was up two spots to #8, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #9).

With this downfall in Chinese EVs, Legacy OEM plugins had the opportunity to recover positions, with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV leading the charge, in #6, while its Automotive Group team mate Renault Zoe was up two spots, to #7, while its arch-rival BMW i3 also rised, to #12.  

The Hyundai Kona continues to climb the ranking, now at #14, and should rise even further as the year develops.

As for the remaining ranking, it is rather surprising to see the VW e-Golf showing up in #16, and it will be interesting to see how long does it stay in the Top 20, especially once the upcoming ID hatchback becomes closer to reality. 

Finally, a mention to two re-entries, after a horrible January, the Tesla Model X returned to the company of the Best Sellers, while the BMW 530e also joined the Top 20, managing this year to outsell the Tesla Model S and thus become the temporary Best Selling full size car on the PEV ranking.

Tesla's flagship is really needing a refresh...And above all, a price-competitive version!




Manufacturers: Tesla climbs to #2

February saw Tesla climb to Second Place, but the leader BYD is still too far off (or is it?) for the Californian company to race it for the leadership in March, so we should see an entertaining Q2 '19 race between these two. 

In the race for the 3rd spot, SAIC is ahead of the competition, but lost some edge over the competition, with Nissan, BMW and Geely cutting (a tad) the distance to the Shanghai maker, and with all three having aces up their sleeves for the coming months, we should see an interesting race for Bronze.

Looking elsewhere, three manufacturers took this month to jump positions, with both Mitsubishi and Volvo joining the Top 10, while Kia was up six positions, to #13, profiting from the popularity of the Niro EV.

BAIC continues tumbling down, now dropping to #11, with rumours saying that they are experiencing problems at their plants, thus preventing them to fulfill orders.

At the bottom of the ranking, we see two old faces rejoining the Top 20, with Toyota jumping to #19 (the Chinese Corolla PHEV is already doing wonders…), while Chevrolet is now #20, although the question is...For how long?



10 comments:

  1. I think we can safely assume that Model S and Model X will both shoot back up at the end of the quarter, as they always do... While some have become pretty pessimistic about Tesla's Q1 deliveries, consensus still seems to expect some 70,000 deliveries at least across all models. So unless BYD can repeat their January performance, Tesla might very well already be back on top in March...

    We shall know pretty soon, with Tesla reporting deliveries in a day or two, and BYD somewhat later in the month :-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rolling 12months at 2.13 million.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 01, 2019

    In the "others" group there are 60,536 vehicles and 52% of the market.
    All with 1% or less of the market. That looks to me like a healthy market with ample choice.
    Among those small potatoes the Tesla Model S and the GM Bolt.
    Who would have thought this just a year ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Bolt is fast becoming irrelevant, while the Model S (really) needs a refresh.

      Delete
  4. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 01, 2019

    32,671 Europe
    17,239 USA
    52,805 China
    8,826 RotW
    ---------------
    111,541 total

    We tend to forget the Rest of the World. Glad you don't Jose!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many people Forget about relevant markets, like South Korea, Malaysia...But they add up a lot of units to the total.

      Delete
    2. 8% doesn't feel like all that much TBH... And that will likely be less at the end of the quarter, when all three "big" markets will see significant bumps from Tesla.

      (BTW, the single biggest chunk of the "rest of the world" is surely Japan?...)

      Delete
    3. Japan is the largest market, but South Korea is a close 2nd.

      Delete
  5. Jose,

    Tesla Model 3 sales in The Netherlands:

    March 2019: 2,195
    Q1 2019: 2,707

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete