Tesla Model 3 breaks records in hot market
The European passenger plug-in market registered some 59,000 registrations in September (+76%), with BEVs stepping up the pace (+109%), and reaching a record score of 41,001 units, earning its first three digit growth rate since July 2014...
This time PHEVs were back in black, growing 28%, its
first growth month since last September, when the new WLTP emission rules
started, so it all seems aligned for a strong last quarter of the year.
With all-electrics going into warp speed, they were
responsible for 69% of all plugin sales last month (67% YTD), the BEV share grew
to a record 3.2%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 4.6%,
pulling the 2019 PEV share to 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result
of 2018.
If we add unplugged hybrids to the tally, we get a 10%
share in the overall market, the first time electrified vehicles reach two
digits in Europe, while Diesel continues its never ending slide, now at 29%
(33% last year), so we could see new registrations of this fuel going extinct
in Europe by 2026...
The big news in September was the Tesla Model 3 scoring
a new all time record (17,490 units), beating its own March record (15,768
units), but this could not be the end of it, as December could see yet another
record score from the Tesla midsizer.
Interestingly, this is the first 100% BEV Top 5 in years. Will it become the norm next year?
Interestingly, this is the first 100% BEV Top 5 in years. Will it become the norm next year?
Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:
#1 Tesla
Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had its best month so far in Europe,
with 17,490 deliveries, with the Model 3 scoring 5(!)
four-digit results (5,768 units in the Netherlands, 2,934 in the UK, 2,342 in
Norway, 1,516 in Germany and 1,061 in France) in the same month. With the
deployment of back-log units in the UK, and a big sales peak expected in the
Netherlands, December could see another record month. By the look of it, we
should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe
by next year.
#2 Renault
Zoe– The 3,555 deliveries of September allowed it
to continue growing (+28%), regarding last year, an amazing feat for a model
that is supposed to be changing its skin, busy deploying the first units of the
much improved “new” Zoe. As for individual market performances, the French hatchback
continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,568 units), and in
Germany (634 units), this time with the UK making an important contribution to
the tally (235), of the successful Renault.
#3 Nissan Leaf – With the 62 kWh version now being delivered in
volume, the Japanese model hit 3,208
units last month, its best result since March, marking the return of the Leaf
to the podium, and…That’s it for good news. Because despite the larger battery version
help, registrations were still down 22% YoY. Will the Nissan BEV be able to
leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, as the 62kWh version price
premium (+/- 7,000 eur) is too steep to make it relevant in the long term, so
in the long run, either Nissan cuts prices significantly, or the Leaf starts to
become irrelevant, especially when a certain VW ID.3 lands…But back at September
performances, the Japanese main markets were the UK (812 units), Norway (585), Germany
(308) and France (299).
#4 BMW
i3– The German hatchback was up 30% in September, to 3,110 units, its best result in 6 months, with the
BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding
its sales, following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries,
Germany (865 units), continues to be its larger market, with the following being
the UK (658) and Norway (398), at a sizeable distance. A warning sign?
#5 Volkswagen
e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,560 units last month, growing 196%(!) YoY, and
hitting a new Year Best result, an awesome result for a model that was supposed
to be in sunset-mode…Only, it seems VW is
going all in into plugins, and is actively promoting what they have right now,
even if it is an oldtimer. Add the
name Golf, and what it implies, and that is generating enough appeal to keep
demand up, even with newer and more competitive models on the market. Back at September
performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were the UK(!), with 820 units, Norway
(645), and Germany (419).
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| New BMW 330e: a quick fix to try to stop the 3-Series sales bleeding |
Looking at the 2019 ranking, if Tesla can already
order the 2019 Best Seller party for the Model 3 and Renault can think about
finding a place for the silver medal of the Zoe, the 3rd place could still be
up for discussion, as the #4 BMW i3 and the #5 Nissan Leaf are shortening the
distances to the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, but with 3 months to go about
2,000 units to recover, the two models will have a hard task ahead.
Below the front runners, the #7 Hyundai
Kona EV scored its best result since January, with 1,988 registrations (is
Hyundai getting more batteries?), while we have a new face in the Top 10, with
the BMW 225xe A. Tourer jumping to #10, thanks to 1,566 units, its best result
ever.
But it wasn’t the only BMW scoring a
record result, as the new 330e landed with a bang, with 1,659 registrations, in
what is already a new record for the nameplate, allowing it to be #8 in
September.
After seeing their customer base defect to
the Model 3, the alarms must have sounded at the BMW HQ and the maker is
betting everything on the success of its midsize PHEV, at least until the real Model 3 fighter, the i4, isn’t ready.
Another maker stepping up production is
Volvo, with its XC60 PHEV scoring its best result since January (1,516 units),
allowing it to climb 2 positions, to #12, while its larger sibling, the XC90
PHEV, also hit its best result in 8 months, with 781 units, allowing it to
reach #22, and the S/V60 PHEV twins registered 807 units, with the midsize
models looking to get nearer to the Top 20.
On the second half of the table, the Smart
Fortwo EV climbed to #16, thanks to 996 units, its best result in 20 months, and
we have a new face in the Top 20, with the Tesla Model X returning to the table
in #19, thanks to 1,131 deliveries, its best result in 2019, thus placing all
Tesla lineup on the Top 20.
Outside the Top 20, September brought a
second coming of several plugin hybrids, besides the aforementioned good
performances of the BMW and Volvo models, the Audi Q5 PHEV has landed with 421
units, while the revised VW Passat GTE scored 419 units, the nameplate best
result since the beggining of the new WLTP rules.
Expect some of these models to become
regular presences in the Top 20 next year, with both the BMW 330e and the VW
Passat GTE running for Top 10 spots.
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (22%,
up 1%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%) remains in the runner-up
spot, ahead of Renault (9%, down 1%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur
PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand and keep its podium
seat from the makers behind it, namely Mitsubishi and Hyundai, both with 7%
share.
Analysing the data, chances for the Nissan Leaf to achieve 2019 sales in the region of 40.000 vehicles by the end of the year are highly unlikely, but sister Renault Zoe might struggle also to reach 50.000 vehicles. On the other hand, the Tesla Model 3 has progressed to the extent that might reach 100.000 vehicles registered in 2019.
ReplyDeleteFrom the posted data, Q32019 standings are:
1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 85728 vehicles
2nd Tesla with 76301 vehicles
3rd BMW Group with 54710 vehicles
4th Kia-Hyundai with 40515 vehicles
5th Volkswagen Group with 30857 vehicles
Seems pretty unlikely to me that Model 3 will hit 100,000. While demand might be there, thus far it doesn't look like they are actually shipping off more cars than last quarter. Considering that Q3 started with some delivery overhang from Q2, while Q4 seems to have started with very little overhang (October deliveries were extremely low), Q4 deliveries might actually end up somewhat *lower* than Q3. This means that we shouldn't expect more than ~90,000 for the year -- unless shipments ramp *way* up in the next few weeks...
DeleteZoe might have a shot at 50,000 I guess, if deliveries of the new model ramp up fast. Q4 numbers last year were close to the necessary pace; and this year thus far is significantly up from last year... No idea what the ramp situation is, though.
Leaf could still hit 40,000 in theory, considering that record months last year had pretty close to 5,000 -- though I don't see anything to trigger the demand increase necessary for that...
I'm not so sure any of these renewed PHEV models will actually have a shot at the top 10 next year... Note that in the Model 3 is currently the only premium model among the top 7 positions -- everything else before 8th place are affordable models. With various interesting new BEV models coming soon -- including several affordable ones -- I expect this phalanx to expand further, pushing premium PHEVs out of the top 10 for good. Thus, the Outlander, and *possibly* the Passat, are likely the only existing PHEV models that might show up in the top 10 next year -- though I guess they might be joined by some upcoming new models in a similar price range?...
ReplyDeleteThis is no nice.
ReplyDeleteIn European market, where other american luxury makes have either left or selling at low volume. Tesla managed to sell 17,490 + vehicles boosting the total to a high 58,662. Congratulations Tesla.
Hope the production start in GF-3 will relieve some units to be sold to US + EU + others.
While European automakers like to sell more PHEVs, that segment could grab only 7 spots in Top-20 with spots 3,9,10,12,13,14 and 20.
All this indicates that people are willing to buy BEVs.
Nissan is artificially keeping the production low. Hope their new chief will do all he can do to increase production and sales.
Dieseler's (diesel vehicles) goes down from 33% to 29% is good. Still its not a big decrease, that means automakers are striving hard to sell more diesels. So its the Petroler's (gasser as called in USA) sales must have gone down sharply with PEVs and HEVs gaining a lot.
Whether VW will launch the ID.3 as they said or limp like e-Golf needs to be seen. Hope more EV launches combined with range increase should bring in more sales.
BMW i3 is getting another battery increase, I hope they will reduce the price to make it competitive with Model-3 although both vehicles are in a different range.
I don't think Gigafactory Shanghai will actually have much impact on Fremont... For one, China exports were only a fraction of production to begin with. What's more, only SR+ models will be made in China (at least initially) -- so LR shipments from Fremont won't be affected. And orders for the Chinese SR+ have been open for quite some time (and it was known even longer that it will become available soonish) -- so I don't think SR+ exports to China were terribly big to begin with...
DeleteI don't expect this to be a major problem near term, though. Fremont is still not at full capacity; and also, while orders seem to be outpacing production right now, Q1 will likely be quite a bit weaker -- so I guess they will be able to work through any backlog at that point...
After that, it all depends on how organic demand for Model 3 develops going forward. If it keeps growing -- which seems likely -- it might indeed be getting tight beginning later next year , until the upcoming European Gigafactory comes up... Unless they manage to squeeze even more out of Fremont, all while ramping Model Y...
What makes you think Nissan is keeping production low? As far as I can tell, sales are below expectations and capacity...
Delete