Monday, October 21, 2019

Japan September 2019

Resultado de imagem para nissan leaf 62 kWh japans


Nissan Leaf leads in regressing market

In September, some 5.400 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, down 2% YoY, which is still better than the YTD result (-15%), with the Japanese PEV continuing to be highly dependent from the two front runners, with both having 68% of the market.

The 2019 PEV share is now at 0.9% share (1% in September), down 0.1% regarding the 2018 result, and one wonders what can pull sales North of the 1% mark again.

Tesla Model 3? A Top 5 position seems likely, and it maybe has a shot at reaching #3, but market disruption won't come from it, for that we should need a local hero.

But...Who? The current leader Nissan Leaf continues with sliding sales (-20% YoY in September), same story for the #3 Outlander PHEV, while the #2 Prius PHEV last month had its best score since 2017, with 1.499 registrations, but in 2019, its sales are still down 20%, so unless some surprise happens next year, the Toyota hatchback won't be the agent of change. 

Maybe that role will be the upcoming Toyota RAV4 PHEV?  

On the Honda field, the Clarity PHEV continues being delivered in symbolic numbers (as in 10 to 20 units/month), with all hopes going to the much anticipated 2020 Honda e EV, but then again, if the model indeed becomes a success, will Honda have enough batteries for it?

What's left? Mazda is giving its first baby steps into electrification (the MX-30 model is still to be officially revealed), Subaru and Daihatsu are dependent from Toyota's stubburness, while Suzuki is focusing it's electrification efforts in India...so there still doubts that 2020 will provide the necessary jump from +/-1% share, to something like 2% share by the end of next year.

But despite all the hesitations and delays from local manufacturers, the best selling foreign OEM, BMW, is still Fourth, with 10% share, below Mitsubishi (13%).

Of course, the imminent landing of a certain Tesla Model 3 might change things...But it shouldn't be enough to change significantly the 2019 status quo.

But in 2020...


A few words on the Fuel Cell market, which is basically speaking of the Toyota Mirai, as the Honda Clarity FCEV is distributed monthy in (low) single digits.

As such, 552 Fuel Cells were registed in Japan this year, correponding to 0,01% of the market, if this sounds a puny result after 4 years on the market, the worst news is that sales are actually down 6% YoY...

Maybe the 2nd Generation Mirai, to be released in 2020, will change things? At least the new generation looks nice, something that can't be said about the first Mirai...#Terminatormobile

12 comments:

  1. ?? Sales are well underway since middle of September for the Tesla Model 3.

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    Replies
    1. Can you show me a link with that?

      Delete
    2. Sure, you can find plenty of photo evidences if you check Tesla Aoyama, Tesla Nagoya, Tesla Osaka store's photos on Google Maps.

      Also, more evidences also here:
      https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-china-netherlands-q3-2019-model-3-results/
      https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-rhd-delivery-started-in-japan.166144/

      Delete
  2. While the earlier chief of Nissan: Mr. Carlos Ghosn put so much effort to promote Leaf, the later chief did all the damage and ensured that Leaf does not sell well. Goodness he is gone and new chief is in.
    Hope he realizes the importance of electric vehicles in future transport and starts promoting Leaf again.

    Just think about this. If a Leaf with 30 KWh could sell so many units, then the combo of 40 KWh and 62 KWh should be selling at more than double the rate, instead its sales are down 20% in US & Japan. All this is because, Nissan is not producing/selling as many.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. True, i expected Nissan to promote (among other things, discounting it) a lot more the Leaf than they doing right now.

      Let's see what the coming months bring, as 2020 will probably see a price war, and Nissan has margin to do it, but it remains to be seen if it is willing to fight it.

      Delete
  3. Import car sales numbers in September Japan.
    http://www.jaia-jp.org/wp-content/uploads/private/201909NewCarNews.pdf
    The 290 Others standard car number is almost all Tesla cars.
    It was 116 last year, so it looks the Model 3 is more than 150 in September.

    Another source is Import EV number.
    http://www.jada.or.jp/data/month/m-fuel-hanbai/
    The import EV is 317.
    It was 122 last year, so again it looks the Model 3 is more than 150 in September.

    ReplyDelete
  4. By the way...
    You wrote the total was 5391.

    2593 EV + 2810 PHV = 5403 total
    http://www.jada.or.jp/data/month/m-fuel-hanbai/

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, i didn't knew this page. Still, 99% accuracy is pretty good, i guess.

      Delete
  5. Just FYI...
    Japan October number ... 1091 EV + 809 PHV = 1900 total
    http://www.jada.or.jp/data/month/m-fuel-hanbai/
    Japan October Import Others (mostly Tesla) ... 234
    http://www.jaia-jp.org/wp-content/uploads/private/201910NewCarNews.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  6. Just FYI again...
    Japan November number ...
    Japan November Import Others (mostly Tesla) ... 107
    -> Model 3 sales was down
    http://www.jaia-jp.org/wp-content/uploads/private/201911NewCarNews.pdf

    Japan November number 1605 EV + 1156 PHV = 2761 total
    http://www.jada.or.jp/data/month/m-fuel-hanbai/
    Leaf was up, import EV was down, import PHV was up ... vs last month

    ReplyDelete