Japan September 2019

Nissan Leaf leads in regressing market

In September, some 5.400 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, down 2% YoY, which is still better than the YTD result (-15%), with the Japanese PEV continuing to be highly dependent from the two front runners, with both having 68% of the market.

The 2019 PEV share is now at 0.9% share (1% in September), down 0.1% regarding the 2018 result, and one wonders what can pull sales North of the 1% mark again.

Tesla Model 3? A Top 5 position seems likely, and it maybe has a shot at reaching #3, but market disruption won't come from it, for that we should need a local hero.

But...Who? The current leader Nissan Leaf continues with sliding sales (-20% YoY in September), same story for the #3 Outlander PHEV, while the #2 Prius PHEV last month had its best score since 2017, with 1.499 registrations, but in 2019, its sales are still down 20%, so unless some surprise happens next year, the Toyota hatchback won't be the agent of change. 

Maybe that role will be the upcoming Toyota RAV4 PHEV?  

On the Honda field, the Clarity PHEV continues being delivered in symbolic numbers (as in 10 to 20 units/month), with all hopes going to the much anticipated 2020 Honda e EV, but then again, if the model indeed becomes a success, will Honda have enough batteries for it?

What's left? Mazda is giving its first baby steps into electrification (the MX-30 model is still to be officially revealed), Subaru and Daihatsu are dependent from Toyota's stubburness, while Suzuki is focusing it's electrification efforts in India...so there still doubts that 2020 will provide the necessary jump from +/-1% share, to something like 2% share by the end of next year.

But despite all the hesitations and delays from local manufacturers, the best selling foreign OEM, BMW, is still Fourth, with 10% share, below Mitsubishi (13%).

Of course, the imminent landing of a certain Tesla Model 3 might change things...But it shouldn't be enough to change significantly the 2019 status quo.

But in 2020...

A few words on the Fuel Cell market, which is basically speaking of the Toyota Mirai, as the Honda Clarity FCEV is distributed monthy in (low) single digits.

As such, 552 Fuel Cells were registed in Japan this year, correponding to 0,01% of the market, if this sounds a puny result after 4 years on the market, the worst news is that sales are actually down 6% YoY...

Maybe the 2nd Generation Mirai, to be released in 2020, will change things? At least the new generation looks nice, something that can't be said about the first Mirai...#Terminatormobile