Tesla Model 3 is the 2019's Best Selling vehicle in Dutch lands
We start this month in the Netherlands, the Dutch PEV market grew a whopping 281% in September, with 8,067 registrations, the best month ever for plugins, outside the previous fiscal-derived peaks in December '13 (9,304 units), December '15 (15,908) and December '16 (11,132). So all points to a record performance next December...How much, would you say? 16,000? 20,000? More?
This memorable performance last month translated in a BEV Share of 20% in September, placing the 2019 EV share at a record 9,6%.
The good news is that not only BEVs were red hot (+291%), but PHEVs sales also jumped (+173% YoY), although their growth paled regarding BEVs, so last month they represented just 5% of all plugin registrations...Adding plugin hybrid registrations to BEVs, the Plugin share climbs 1% in September, to 21%, and 0.6% in 2019, to 10.2%.
So it is official: We have yet another market north of the famous 10% mark, after Norway, Iceland and Sweden, we now have the Netherlands.
In September, the leader Tesla Model 3 had its best performance outside the US, with an amazing 5,768 units, becoming not only the Best Selling Vehicle in this market, all fuels counted, but also smashing the almost 6 year old monthly plugin record, that dated back from December 2013 (Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - 4,957 units).
Looking at the remaining players, the #2 Hyundai Kona EV also shined, with 510 registrations, its best result since January, while its cousin Kia Niro EV reached the podium last month, with 300 deliveries.
A good result for Kia Netherlands, but not so good for the remaining Kia European importers, that are watching several units of the highly desired EV crossover being diverted to Dutch roads...Well, for them, i have a message: Knock on the Kia Mothership gates and demand more units. Many more...
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Tesla Model 3
|
5,768
|
2
|
Hyundai Kona EV
|
510
|
3
|
Kia Niro EV
|
300
|
4
|
BMW i3
|
200
|
4
|
VW e-Golf
|
152
|
Looking at the 2019 ranking, a special mention to the fact that the stellar performance of the Tesla Model 3 in September allowed it to become the best selling model, all models counted, with a 4,000 units advantage over the #2 VW Polo.
So together with their Norwegian colleagues, Tesla's Dutch representatives can start to prepare their own 2019 Best Selling Model party...
In the PEV Top 10, everything looks stable, with only the #10 Audi e-Tron, #6 in September, having a chance to stirr things up, having cut the distance to the #9 Hyundai Ioniq Electric by 76 units, to just 109 units.
The second half of the ranking is definetely more interesting, with the Volvo XC90 PHEV climbing to #14, thanks to 40 registrations, its best result since January, while the Smart Forfour EV (43 units, personal best) was also up one position, to #16.
The Tesla Model S was up 2 positions, to #17, thanks to 66 deliveries, its best result in 2019, while the Model X is only 5 units behind the #19 Jaguar i-Pace, thanks to a year best performance in September, with 56 units. Overall, a great month for the whole Tesla lineup…
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (42%, up 9%!) extended its lead, followed by Hyundai (13%, down 2%), while the other Korean, Kia (8%, down 2%), is in the last place of the podium, ahead of Volkswagen (7%), BMW and Nissan (both with 6%).
Midsize SUV Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
Sep.
Sales |
1
|
Volvo XC60 PHEV
|
155
|
2
|
Mitsubishi Outlander
|
136
|
3
|
BMW X3
|
60
|
4
|
Mercedes GLC
|
43
|
5
|
Jaguar i-Pace
|
40
|
You might have read plenty of articles about how the Tesla Model 3 is kicking ass butts in The Netherlands, but probably haven't read yet the underlying story behind it, that is the quick electrification of the most expensive segments of the Dutch market. So...here it is:
While the Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed leader in the midsize car segment, the correspondent SUV category is also being electrified swiftly, with the electrified Volvo XC60 (39% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) leading, with 155 units, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was the runner-up in September, with 132 units (97% of all Outlander registrations).
To highlight the current electrification, the all-electric Jaguar i-Pace was #5, just 3 units behind the #4 Mercedes GLC. Not bad, eh?
Full size Car Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
Sep.
Sales |
1
|
BMW 5-Series
|
187
|
2
|
Mercedes E-Class
|
164
|
3
|
Tesla Model S
|
66
|
4
|
Volvo S/V90
|
42
|
5
|
Audi A6
|
30
|
If the midsize SUV is getting electrified fast, even without the Tesla Model Y and VW ID.4x, in the full size car category, things are less advanced, with only the Tesla Model S disrupting the status quo, as the other two electrified models, the BMW 5-Series (6% of registrations belong to the PHEV version), and the Volvo S/V90 twins (9%), have a low share of plugins.
The Porsche Taycan will be a welcome addition to this category...
Full size SUV Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
Sep.
Sales |
1
|
Audi e-Tron
|
143
|
2
|
BMW X5
|
65
|
3
|
Volvo XC90
|
59
|
4
|
Tesla Model X
|
56
|
5
|
Porsche Cayenne
|
53
|
The full size SUV category seems to be the most advanced segment when it comes to electrification, not only we have 2 BEV nameplates in the Top 5, but the other electrified model, the Volvo XC90, has 68% of its registrations coming from its PHEV version.
Add this to the fact that the #2 BMW X5 is going to receive an interesting PHEV version in a few weeks, and that the Porsche is said to re-launch the PHEV Cayenne soon, and we could have a completely electrified Top 5 in a few months.
And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!
And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!
These are surely welcome news in one of the most polluting vehicle segments.
Absolutely correct: this is what the customers are facing in the case of Niro EV. The allocation for Europe in 2019 was mostly redirected to Nehterlands at short hands.
ReplyDeleteExample: Germany got no customer composed car this far thus quota was announced and delivery dates were fixed for orders in January but than sacked in February. The reason is quite well comprehensible: way better margin in NL, S and F. Someone got his Christmas Bonus boosted for this decision, isn't it, Mr. Herrera?
Only a share of around 300 cars (= demo cars for German dealers) were registered so far. With KIA officially saying (via customer service) that no more cars to come in 2019.
Well, there are cars coming in but only in NL... Got lucky in the Netherlands ;-)
Jose,
ReplyDeleteAfter three quarters there are two countries in Europe where Tesla has already delivered more than 10,000 units of the Tesla Model 3 in 2019 (Norway and The Netherlands).
In which other countries in Europe will Tesla achieve the same milestone in Q4 2019?
Perhaps in Germany?
Cheers
Neo,
DeleteAnswering before Jose get a chance, Tesla Germany just passed 9,000 in September with a 0.3% market share. At least it is no longer in the "Others" category like in some other European Nation.
Germany will likely reach the 10K Model 3 in November, With December as a second chance.
Besides Norway and the Netherlands, i agree that Germany should follow, and even the UK might have a shot at it, depending on the Q4 goes in the Dutch market, because i fear Tesla might "starve" other European markets in the next couple of months, dut to the overwhelming demand in the Netherlands.
DeleteSeveral groups of countries as per PEV penetration are clearly visible:
ReplyDeleteI. Norway - over 50% of PEV market share - transition in final stage; 2023 should be finished
II. Netherlands, Sweden, Iceland - above 10% - exponential growth phase starting - expected completion of transition 2025
III. Switzerland, Belgium, Finland, Denmark, United Kingdom - about 3%or over 3% with a very good potential to catch up with group II. Transition will be completed about 2028
IV. France, Germany - about 3%; transition happening slowlier due to the size of both markets and as they are the biggest producers of cars in Europe - some form of protectionism: l"first have our producers transform to EVs, then we will implement the incentives". Expected completion of transition - 2030
V. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia - about 1% penetration; these countries will most probably catch up with group IV. till 2030.
VI. CEE - Poland, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia - expected completion of transition till 2032 as per new sales. These countries will keep though for longer time their ICE cars due to the lower incomes.
You seem confused about the meaning of "exponential". Exponential growth is what tends to happen *before* entering the steep phase of the S-curve. Once in the steep phase, growth tends to become more linear -- which is what happened in Norway, once they were well in the two-digit shares.
Delete(Also, in the Netherlands specifically, the current growth is inflated, and will be followed by a major slowdown, due to upcoming incentive changes at the end of the year...)
BTW, I'm not convinced that lower-income countries will actually keep combustion cars longer: with EV prices constantly falling, pretty soon owning EVs should be cheaper across the board compared even to used combustion cars...
The progression of PEV penetration in the Netherlands continues at strong pace as noted, but a few key points are starting to emerge:
ReplyDelete1-Tesla so far this year, more than doubles the amount of the delivered fleet compared to just 3 months ago! Nevertheless, it relies heavily on the Model 3, too much it seems (97%), as compared to September 2018, Model S deliveries are down 94% and Model X deliveries are down 90%.
2-The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance is in deep trouble, the worldwide head start this automotive group had is vanishing, as current fleet is just superficial updates and not ground-up architectures, it remains to be seen if in this segment good money can be made with such policies.
3-Even considering the gaming Kia-Hyundai is playing, they manage to grow the distance from Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, and the latter has "new product" with the Leaf and Zoe duo.
From the posted data, Q32019 standings are:
1st Tesla with 13992 vehicles
2nd Kia-Hyundai with 6944 vehicles
3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 4614 vehicles
4th Volkswagen Group with 2919 vehicles
5th BMW Group with 1843 vehicles
As pointed out many times before, Model S and X sales were inflated last year in the Netherlands, and are depressed this year, because of a major pull-forward due to major incentive changes for expensive EVs. Nothing unexpected here at all.
DeleteAlso, there is no such thing as "relying on Model 3 too much": Elon made it very clear at the last earnings call that the focus of the company is now squarely on the Model 3 and the upcoming Model Y, with Model S and X now being considered more of a side show...
Since you have inside knowledge, do you have evidences that Dutch leasing companies like Leaseplan, ALD Automotive, Alphabet and others last year bought surplus Tesla Model S and Model X cars for their managed fleet?
DeleteBecause, the tax changes cut into anyone and everybody, but the Outlander PHEV [+1084%](3Q19 - 1529, 3Q18 - 141), the BMW 530e [+184%](3Q19 - 204, 3Q18 - 111), the Jaguar I-Pace [+152%](3Q19 - 88, 3Q18 - 58), just to name a few, are doing just fantastic!
Have you seen what the Audi e-tron is selling? Look, the Mercedes-Benz EQC 400 4Matic is already with 29 registrations.
written by Looney Tunes
I'm pretty sure the tax changes did *not* cut into PHEVs -- AFAIK they lost all subsidies a while back.
DeleteThe I-Pace didn't begin deliveries in earnest before Q4, so not comparable. The drop from Q4 to Q1 OTOH was just as pronounced as for Model S and X -- and so will be Q4 2018 to Q4 2019. e-tron or EQC didn't start sales before this year, so obviously there was no pull-forward of orders.
None of your cherry-picked data contradicts what I said.
I'm sorry, I don't understand what is your point.
DeleteMy point is that few vehicles are having issues into attracting many customers, either they are expensive EVs or just PHEVs.
I am using like-for-like data, not cherry picked data. I-Pace launch was in June 2018 (I compare 3Q delivery numbers of 2019 versus 2018). For both Outlander PHEV and BMW 530e I compare full year until September, for both 2019 and 2018. How is this cherry-picking?
I ask if you have evidence that all people whishing to buy a new Tesla Model S in 2019, switched into buying it in 2018 or if many registered in 2018 Model S are in fact being allocated now into new lease contracts. If not, maybe people are taking Model 3 in place of Model S, saving a lot in the process, too.
written by Looney Tunes
"Launch" doesn't mean anything: I-Pace deliveries didn't start in earnest before Q4. Comparing Q3 figures is like comparing European Model 3 deliveries in 2018 (a few dozen demo units) to 2019 -- it doesn't make any sense.
DeleteI have no "evidence" for the pull-forward, except that exactly the same thing happens every single time in any market when incentives are phased out; and that the numbers slowly but surely recovering with every month passing from the incentive change.
No doubt in-house competition is also affecting Model S sales to some degree -- but going by figures in other markets, not nearly enough to be responsible for a major part of the drop we are seeing here.
A correction here, Portugal was already at more than 3% PEV market share last year and it is already at almost 5% this year, so I hope the completion up to 2030.
ReplyDeleteI told something similar to Portuguese BMW and Mercedes representatives, a couple of years ago, and it seemed that i had just insulted them, as they took it personally and said i didn't knew what i was talking about.
DeleteFunny :D
I guess Mercedes dealers will have to eat crow in a couple of years...
Delete(Not sure about BMW ones: if the company continues with current policies, the dealers might not get around to eating crow, because they will be too busy looking for new jobs :-P )