Friday, January 10, 2020

Norway December 2019


Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 Norway

Tesla wins both titles, with PEV share hitting 56%

Despite the sales drop (-16% YoY) in December, the Norwegian plugin had a positive year, growing a moderate 10%, that added to the 4% drop on the mainstream market, helped the plugin share to grow, to 56% share (42% for BEVs alone), a 7% increase over the 2017 PEV share (49%).

In this context, 2020 could see Norway reach some 66% PEV share.

Proof of this never ending electric rise is the final 2019 fuel mix numbers, with diesel vehicles ending with 16% share (it was 18% in 2018), with gasoline declining faster (16% vs 22% a year ago), while regular hybrids remained stable (12% vs 11%), and PHEVs dropped from 18% a year ago, to the current 14%.


Models breakdown by Fuel Source


Looking at December best sellers, we have two unplugged models, with the Skoda Octávia, registering an amazing 431 registrations (fleet deal? taxis?), while the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid rounds up the table, in #10.

Anyway, looking at December Best Sellers, we see the Tesla Model 3 winning the monthly title, with 1.251 deliveries, with the VW e-Golf  (525 units) winning Silver, with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV completing the podium.

Elsewhere, besides the aforementioned two BEVs in the podium, there are 3 other BEVs in the Top 10, making it 5 out of 10, while this time we have 3 PHEVs, as several BEVs deliveries in Norway were starved by the Dutch sales peak, allowing PHEVs  (and others) to have more space to show up in the Top 10.

Expect the blue wave to become even more predominant throughout 2020.



Looking at the 2019 models ranking, the Tesla Model 3 has won the trophy in its landing year, with a record 15.683 units (Funny enough, 12 months ago i was predicting this volume of deliveries for the Tesla nameplate…).

Last year winner, the Nissan Leaf, ended in Third Place, while in 2nd we have the 2017 winner, the VW e-Golf, that amazingly has seen its deliveries grow by 27% in its last full sales year. Not bad for a career end...

Elsewhere, the big surprise was the Audi e-Tron ending its first year on the market in #4, winning the Best Selling SUV and Luxury categories, while promising to be one of the competitors for the podium in 2020, while the Best Selling PHEV title went once again for the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (the '19 win is its 4th in a row), with no real competition, as the Japanese SUV seems to be the only plugin hybrid being able to run with the best of BEVs.  

Looking at other sub-category prizes, the small EV Best Seller went once again for the BMW i3, while on the Best Selling Luxury Car category, there was a last minute surprise, with the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins surpassing the Tesla Model S, thanks to a 189 units performance in December, their best result in 18 months, allowing them to end in front of the Californian by just 13 units.

Actually, last month was quite positive for Volvo, not only the flagship twins won their category, but the Volvo XC90 PHEV also climbed to #17, thanks to 177 units, its best result since June 2018, and the Volvo XC60 PHEV scored 319 units, a new record for the Swedish midsize SUV.

On the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (23%) won its first manufacturers trophy in Norway(!), ahead of Volkswagen (14%), and BMW (10%), while outside the podium, we have Nissan (9%), and Hyundai (8%).

Regarding LCVs, sales were up 20%, to 1.928 units (5,1% share), with the Nissan e-NV200 (978) dominating the market, while on the FCEV market, 29 units were registered, a 23 units drop(!) YoY, with the Hyundai Nexo (22 units) surpassing the Toyota Mirai (7), thus making the 5th consecutive title for Hyundai. 

Sharewise, FCEVs sank from 0,04% in 2018 to the current 0,02%...Mmm...Makes you think, doesn't it?  


Finally, looking into 2020, the defending champion Tesla Model 3 won't have it so easy this time, as several volume models are set to land throughout the year, but none will have enough volume to threat the Californian lead, with the exception of the VW ID.3, that will be a force to be reckoned once it lands, but because it will land late in the year, it won't be enough to win this year title. Maybe in 2021? 

Tesla will probably also take the Manufacturers title, but it will see Volkswagen getting closer every passing month on the second half of the year.

92 comments:

  1. NOW! NISSAN LEAF 40 KWT FROM 239 900 KR 62 KWT FROM 309 900 KR.
    SAVE 48,000 KR!(information from the site nissan.no) 27000-35000USD a discount 5400USD.

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    1. Has a price war begin?

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    2. Soul and Ioniq bad sales.What will they do in response?

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    3. Try to buy more batteries.

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    4. A price war shouldn't happen until there is general oversupply -- which I don't expect to happen before some time in the second half of the decade...

      Having said that, while overall EV demand should continue to exceed supply, it's likely not be the case for every model: along with some very interesting new entrants, we are also facing a flood of very mediocre overpriced debuts from various laggards now rushing because of the EU regulations... I wouldn't be surprised to see some *hefty* discounts on some of these inferior models.

      Waging a price war in Norway specifically wouldn't be the smartest of moves though, considering that this market is nearing the state of a zero-sum game for affordable EVs... It would be far more effective to lower prices in other markets, where they could grow EV sales significantly at the expense of combustion cars.

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    5. The market has room to grow(share BEV-42%),each manufacturer wants its share. 14 models BEV go on schedule more 100,but there are those who would like to sell better.The offer is saturated.The perfect place to start a price war.

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    6. Hyunday and Kia clearly did not expect on such weak sales in begining 2020.

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    7. Hyundai* comming soon to production in Europe+supply constraint in 2019.His together with Kia have something to think about.

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    8. The farther the smaller the number of people willing to overpay for a car just because its electric.

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    9. The market has ample room to grow in *some* segments -- but not so much in terms of small affordable cars...

      Again, there are far more attractive place to grow sales, than trying to fight over this mostly saturated market.

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    10. Notably, many of the new models are in segments that haven't had a good BEV offering thus far -- so we should see significant growth in certain segments that were thus far a stronghold of combustion cars and PHEVs. This means there is still significant growth potential overall, despite the already high starting point...

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    11. I think you contradict yourself.

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    12. For a second,this is the market n2 in Europe.Who will neglect it?

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    13. I'm not talking about neglecting. I'm talking about not initiating a price war. These are very different things.

      The legacy car makers don't care about the relative standings of their EV offerings in specific markets. All they care about is meeting EU regulations with the least possible effort. And growing sales in mostly untapped markets is likely less effort than trying to grow share at any cost in an already mostly saturated market...

      (And no, I'm not contradicting myself by saying that there is significant growth potential in some segments, while others are mostly saturated.)

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    14. Nissan took the first step.He steals sales from others.Nobody will be calm.

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    15. Nissan is one of Norway top sellers in early 2020.Why would it all be?

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    16. From what I can see, the Leaf does somewhat better this month, but not particularly outstanding... And I don't think we can really deduce much about the rest of the year from three weeks of sales.

      Either way, this is kinda irrelevant to the point at hand. Nobody is questioning that readjusting prices to a level more in line with the current competitive landscape can reinvigorate sales of a particular model... But that doesn't mean that everyone else will now suddenly rush to undercut them in a profit-killing price war.

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    17. I am not happy that the consumer overpays.Kia Picanto from 11k,Citigo EV from 21k.Is that how it should be?
      I think manufacturers profit from BEVs much more than ICE.How happy we wer when VW announced:diesel is great for the envionment.Now a similar situation is only with overpricing.

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    18. On the web: graphics with a tremendous reduction in battery prices.

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    19. This again is like conspiracy and manipulation.

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    20. Overpaying? Last time I heard, auto makers were struggling to break even on their EV offerings... Yes, most EVs are still expensive -- but that's because the makers have trouble bringing the costs down sufficiently (even with falling battery prices), not because they are making fat profits.

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    21. In EV there is not much other than a battery in.They are asking the state for subsidies.

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    22. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    23. That's just not true. For the Model 3 SR+ for example, the battery should be around $7,000 or $8,000 by now; while the total cost of the car is likely still above $30,000... Yes, the battery is a big chunk -- but there is way more to making and selling a car than just the battery.

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    24. In ICE car:ICE,intake and exhaust system,attachments,fuel system,complex transmission and much more that is not in BEV.Why is there a big difference in price?(by car of the same class)

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    25. https://www.kia.com/fr/modeles/picanto/decouvrir/#/ 11290
      https://www.skoda.fr/gamme/citigo 21600

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    26. Nobody minds that an BEV is more expensive,but not almost twice.With such price,BEVs will continue to increase market share for a long time.

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    27. Indeed, the current price premium of most EVs over comparable combustion cars is way larger than the battery price alone would justify. (Model 3 being an exception...) As I already said, it's a matter of scale.

      (This includes direct economies of scale from larger production runs; but also cost-efficiencies from dedicated platforms, which in turn only make sense at larger scales...)

      That's how all disruptions unfold: there is a virtuous circle with larger sales -> lower prices -> larger sales... This will have a *huge* effect over the next several years (and already has had over the past years) -- but it's not something that can happen overnight.

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    28. It is rather sabotage from manufacturers.Audi announces eTron production cuts.

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    29. The difference in price is 2 times.Do you hear what I am talking about?

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    30. Audi production cuts are rumoured, not announced. On the contrary: Audi officially stated the rumours are false.

      And if it turns out they are true after all, that's just incompetence, not sabotage.

      (Either way, that's got nothing to do with the current price premium for EVs...)

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    31. The production of the Audi e-tron in Q1 is expected to drop from the expected 9,800 to 5,700 (by 4,100 or 42%)."Audi itself is quoted as follows by L’Echo: “The Audi e-tron and the Audi Sportback are our first fully electric vehicles. It is a new drive technology for which we are cooperating with 300 suppliers. The cooperation is therefore complex. We are facing an unexpected situation and have taken measures to stabilise supplies,” said Audi plant spokesman Peter D’hoore."

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    32. The production of the Audi e-tron in Q1 is expected to drop from the expected 9,800 to 5,700 (by 4,100 or 42%).

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  2. I think 2020 Norway will be one of the less interesting markets in Europe, given how far they are already in terms of adoption.

    Modest increase of BEV, but also growth again for PHEVs.

    For the bestseller I think we will see a strong mid tail of models, with quite a few new models in the low, mid thousands and some older models losing sales.

    The bestseller trophy should be between the VW ID3 and TM 3, where I believe the VW ID.3 should take it.

    @Jose - I am curious on your comments regarding the late market entry of the VW ID.3. VW announced 100k units in 2020 for the European market of the ID.3. You think a.) they don't make that (note the 750 cars / day capacity, once ramped up), b.) they make that but won't sell let's say at least 15% of those in Norway, though it's a priority market, or c.) you think Tesla M3 will increase their sales much further over 2019 numbers?

    Curious to hear!

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    1. Several things to consider here. First of all, production: while VW promised 100,000 in the first year, with deliveries being pushed out increasingly later in the year, one has to wonder whether they will really meet that goal? And if they indeed make this many, will they deliver them all in 2020?

      The other question is demand. In theory a more affordable car should have larger sales potential -- but then again, between the e-Golf and the Leaf, the compact hatchback segment in Norway has already been pretty much electrified, i.e. there is not much room for growth at the expense of combustion cars... The ID.3 will certainly "steal" some sales from the inferior Leaf; and if it really turns out as good as it's promised, there might also be some cross-selling from other segments. Yet the ID.3 likely will *not* be quite as much of a game-changer as the Model 3. Frankly, between these two, I think it could go either way.

      However, let's not forget that initial deliveries will only be the rather pricey "1st edition" (the more affordable ones aren't planned before 2021 last I heard) -- and that one on its own should have a seriously hard time outselling the Model 3...

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    2. As for the overall market: with so many promising new models, I can't see how it could be boring...

      Notably, many of the new models are in segments that haven't had a good BEV offering thus far -- so we should see significant growth in certain segments that were thus far a stronghold of combustion cars and PHEVs. This means there is still significant growth potential overall, despite the already high starting point...

      And let's not forget that many of the existing models have been supply-constrained in the past (though I'm not sure how much that has been the case in 2019...) -- while the new models presumably have more ambitious production goals, in the face of the new EU emission regulations.

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    3. I think Norway will rather be an interesting market 2020. Many new models, many manufacturers will try to sell as much as they can in Norway to make EU quotas. I think 2020 will be a big jump.

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    4. A big jump in Norway +10% market share.Yes,I agree with you.

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    5. @unknown: I was going to talk about allocation on the Norway post, but then i didn't had the time for that.

      Here is my short version of the whole allocation thing:

      - VW (and the other Legacy OEMs) probably will have the Norway market as an insurance for all EVs they are now being forced to make, in order to meet the CO2 targets;

      - If there is enough demand across the EU, then Norway will be treated as just another market, meaning local importers will have limited amounts of units, which will keep EV prices high, and waiting lists will br frequent. This will benefit Tesla, that won't be production constrained, so it could increase on what is an extraordinary result;

      - On the other hand, if there isn't enough demand in the EU for this year EV production surge, Norway will be flooded with EVs from several brands, starting a price war that will make the Model 3 look expensive, hurting its sales. The bright spot of this will be a sharp EV growth, pulling the plugin share to close to the ceiling (80%? 90%?).

      So, it's a win win situation in either scenario.

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    6. I don't think a "price war" would actually affect Tesla all that much, since beside the Polestar 2, there is nothing in the near future to compete in the same sector. People who don't feel they need the functionality and/or form factor of a Model 3 already have a bunch of more affordable options; while people willing to pay for a Tesla likely won't change their mind just because the cheap options got even cheaper...

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  3. I wonder if Norway will, another time, request an extension of the zero VAT provision until 2020 with european authorities. If no, or if this extension is denied, the EV tax exemptions can end in 31st December 2020 creating a full steam prospect among potential norge car buyers and for every carmakers to prioritize Norge market in 2020.

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    1. Good point, i think it will depend on how the local market will be, regarding plugin share.

      In the unlikely event of the plugin share being close to 80%, around June, then maybe local authorities might think the EV shift is close to be completed, and might start to prepare a gradual removal of incentives, VAT included.

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    2. Funny thing is, the share probably won't reach that level *unless* an upcoming reduction of incentives is expected...

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  4. I wonder whether the Netherlands can really take all of the blame for the poor December performance of virtually all BEV models?...

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    1. I think the Netherlands take the lions share of the blame, but the incentive for automakers to push their EV sales into 2020 to hit EU emissions targets is another reason.

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    2. I think that hardly.All models are available at the begining 2020.Rather the effect new models PHEV.

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    3. @jose

      " but the incentive for automakers to push their EV sales into 2020 to hit EU emissions targets is another reason."

      Dont forget that EV include PHEV and we have a bunch of backdoors in the emission laws. It will be like usual...

      BEV friendly incentives = BEV win
      PHEV friendly incentives = PHEV win
      Incentives in % of salesprice = expensiver cars sell good
      Incentives an fixed ammount = cheaper cars sell

      NO INCENTIVES = EV cant compete

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    4. Switzerland doesn't have incentives, and yet EVs are thriving there.

      Incentives help, but they are not everything.

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  5. I think,buying a gasoline car in Norway will be nonsense in 2022.

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    1. yep! Looking at what is ahead, the 2025 ICE sales ban in Norway does not look that radical at all.

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    2. Refusal to purchase without any prohibitions 3 years earlier.Radical.

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    3. Already in October 2018, gasoline cars were at 16% (down from 22% in 2017), then at the end of 2019 we still are at 16% share? Looks like Norwegians will not abandon fossil fuels, since the prediction that Norwegians were unlikely to purchase diesel cars in 2020 will not materialize either.

      written by Looney Tunes

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    4. Comparing individual months is meaningless -- just as is comparing specific fuels, rather than total share of all fossils.

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  6. Tesla Model S and Model X together under 150 in the Tesla peak month!
    Compare that to Dec18 sales! And you can't use Netherland excuse.

    #nodemand #deadhorse

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    1. That's not entirely true: while the pull-forward in the Netherlands for these models has been way softer this time around (since they have already been affected last year), I'm pretty sure the Model 3 pull-forward strained Tesla's logistics in general, affecting deliveries of other models as well... At the same time, there was also some pull-forward in the US -- so it made more sense for Tesla to focus on local deliveries of these models. (Deliveries have been higher than production in Q4.)

      While the December numbers are probably not meaningful, there is however a significant decrease (~60%) for the whole year -- which is way more relevant, and warrants some thought.

      Part of it is surely caused by some generic headwinds: one of them being the removal of the 75 kWh battery, and some other options, resulting in a significant increase in the entry price for these models, making them even more exclusive than before.

      The other is Osborne Effect from the confirmed upcoming new chassis / power train. (And unconfirmed other changes expected to come with it...)

      However, despite these general headwinds, sales in other markets aren't down nearly as much as in Norway. There is one very significant factor that is mostly exclusive to Norway: because of the very generous incentives, even for people who didn't really need these expensive cars, it was still cheaper to buy them over combustion cars, while there were no other BEVs with decent range available... (Apart from the elusive Ampera-e.) This changed completely this year, seeing the introduction of a whole lot of more affordable BEV models with more or less decent range: ranging from the somewhat more affordable e-tron and I-Pace, to the way more affordable Kona, Niro, and Leaf+ -- and most importantly of course Tesla's own Model 3. (With even more models coming soon already being advertised...)

      This effect is mostly specific to Norway, since elsewhere, people rarely saw a compelling reason to buy an expensive Model S or X, if they weren't in the market for such an expensive vehicle anyway.

      Looking at absolute results, these models aren't at all "dead" in Norway: they now simply slot in where they belong at their price level, instead of the unnaturally inflated numbers they were seeing before...

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    2. Tesla made a mistake reduction production MS and MX.This market proven.E-Tron n1 luxury car BEV.

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    3. Now with all done and dusted, let's see how it is going to be 2020 for Tesla. Oh boy!

      written by Looney Tunes

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  7. South Korea and Japan get supplies M3.I would like reviews of these markets.Please!

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    1. I still don't have the full numbers, but from what i have now, do not expect big numbers coming from Japan.

      On the other hand, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong are promising markets...

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  8. Ship arrived in Japan,in Korea-3 ship.There should be an interesting market in these places.

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  9. https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-chief-most-of-the-us-does-not-need-bevs/.bmw and idiots are synonyms

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    1. Well...That was my opinion regarding BMW, but for different reasons. :D

      And with Tesla becoming the 21st Century BMW, i guess the reasons i found BMW synonym with idiots, now is transferring to Tesla.

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    2. @José Pontes.It so happened that I agree wwith you word for word:)

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    3. @José I don't think Tesla is becoming BMW. While their cars happen to convert some BMW fans because of their performance, there are many, many other reasons why people are buying Teslas... I doubt the "stereotypical" BMW driver will ever form a majority of Tesla customers.

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    4. @antrik: While stereotypes only cover part of a given population, i happen to know BMW owners that are far from the "Out of my Way!" stereotype, because they are very visible, the stereotype appears.

      Same thing for Tesla, while there are plenty of different people buying Teslas, a visible part of them is contributing for the creation of "a type" of Tesla ownership, that resembles of something of a 21st century BMW stereotype.

      In my experience, the "Tesla type" has Money, is tech-savvy and has a large ego, for them, other EVs are either for peasants that can't afford Teslas, or dum people that weren't smart enough to buy a Tesla.

      Usually Tesla share holders, they see every other EV proposal as either laughable, or a threat, and because of it, subject of attacks, because Tesla has to rule the automotive world, like Google and Facebook do on the Internet, so that their shares can jump through the roof, satisfying their own greed.

      I know, only a small portion of Tesla drivers are like this, but they exist and are very visible.

      By the way, i am thinking writing about this, maybe next month, if i find the time.

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    5. Tesla doesn't need a monopoly for their valuation to shoot through the roof -- they "only" need to keep their market share while EVs take over...

      For comparison, Apple "only" has a 13% global smartphone market share.

      Apple also has a lot of arrogant fans -- yet I don't think that's how Apple customers are perceived in general? Tesla should end up in a similar position I'd assume.

      As for criticism of other EVs: while I agree that there are some inappropriate attacks from Tesla fans, the majority of the reactions seems to be just backlash to Tesla competitors regularly being praised for their lofty announcements yet consistently falling short of them -- all the while Tesla being ridiculed for promising supposedly impossible things, while in truth they regularly over-deliver on most scores...

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    6. The "Tesla type" that i mentioned may, or may not, become a common stereotype, only time will tell, as Tesla becomes more known, for now, if you ask "John Doe" on the street about Tesla owners, they will probably only answer: "Rich people".

      The "Tesla Type" that i mentioned came from interactions that i had, not only in real life, but also on the comments section of my articles on Cleatechnica, where Tesla fans attack everything that doesn't have a "T" in it, be it Audi e-Tron's, BMW i3's, Porsche Taycan…

      Sometimes it reminds me of a tribal feeling, where it's Tesla vs The World, where everything else deserves to be burned.

      Who knows, maybe it's just a sign of the current times, where everything is becoming tribal (politics, social life, etc) and people don't spend time trying to understand diferent opinions, they just try to impose their view of the world on everyone else.

      One thing is certain, it is becoming really, really annoying.

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    7. I have been participating in InsideEVs discussions for a while (before they switched to Disqus...) -- so I'm well aware of the Tesla fanatics in such forums. However, I'm also aware of exactly the same type of behaviour from GM fanatics, Nissan fanatics etc. -- they are just less visible, since there are fewer of them, for obvious reasons. (Probably even more pronounced on Cleantechnica, due to their strong Tesla focus...) Also, it goes both ways: for every rabid Tesla fan attacking all other EVs, there is at least one hater attacking everything Tesla...

      This is really in no way specific to Tesla, or to EVs. You will see exactly the same tribalism with car brands in general; with smart phone brands... Pretty much anything really where there are strong brands. These people ranting on internet forums are in no way representative of buyers of a brand in general.

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  10. Even though, at the moment Volvo Car isn't selling any EV, it managed to outsold Kia-Hyundai EVs and secure Norway 5th spot in the carmaker standings, while the Volkswagen Group warms at the 2nd spot, in preparation for the 2020 showdown.

    From the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:

    1st Tesla with 18798 vehicles
    2nd Volkswagen Group with 15341 vehicles
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 13094 vehicles
    4th BMW Group with 7200 vehicles
    5th Volvo car with 6564 vehicles

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  11. Good news:Seat Mii has the opportunity n1 in Norway.In Januaru 2020

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  12. Big ocen ship arrives in Norway today.I wonder what arrived.

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    1. Not sure what you are talking about? According to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI , no Tesla carriers from overseas have arrived in Norway directly, or are scheduled to do so... They all go through Zeebrugge.

      (Although some ships went on to Amsterdam or northern England last quarter -- and in one case even directly to Amsterdam...)

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    2. I did not speak about Tesla.

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    4. Ocean ship arrived of Germany.Now explosive growth e-Golf and e-Tron.

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    5. But if it arrived from Germany, that's not exactly an "ocean ship"?...

      (Admittedly, it *could* have been a ship from Korea for example... I just automatically assumed it's about Tesla, since Tesla carriers is what everyone seems to be talking about ;-) )

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    6. I think that ship came from China… ;-)

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    7. I meant in a big ship.3000+.
      PROMETHEUS LEADER.Zeebrugge-BREMERHAVEN-Oslo.25.01.20

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    8. From Australia could also arrive:).

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    9. Usually in Norway arrives "Autoprestige".Shuttle.

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    10. Norway is fantastic.

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    11. It appears that PROMETHEUS LEADER is regularly circling the North Sea (Norway, UK, Belgium, Germany) and the Atlantic coast down to Spain. Norway is obviously just for unloading -- but all the other destinations could be loading as well... So without further information, we can't really know what brands it is carrying.

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    12. I talked about a specific flight to Norway and that sales of some models jumped at the end of the month.

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    13. In Zeebrugge loading eTron,in Germany-many German models.Is this not obvious to you?

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  14. Market share BEVs+PHEVs will be > 60%

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  16. https://insideevs.it/news/395208/auto-ibride-norvegia-blocca-pubblicita-toyota/

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    1. Why are you linking the article in Italian?...

      Anyway, it's great news of course :-) (Though it's already been reported at least a week ago...)

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    2. Toyota never tires of lying.

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  17. ICE models the market in closed.Now.2020.

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