Friday, January 11, 2019

Norway December 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 nissan Leaf Norway

Nissan wins Model and Manufacturer titles, with PEV share hitting 49% in 2018

Despite an unexpected drop in December, due to the PHEV slump (-44%, 6th time in a row plugin hybrids are down), the truth is that BEVs (+61%) continue to shine, that added to the sales drop (-23%!) on the mainstream market, it lead to large BEV (41%) and PEV (58%) shares, helping the 2018 PEV share to end at an amazing 49%, a full 10% increase over the 2017 PEV share (39%).

In this context, 2019 could see Norway get some 75% PEV share, with peak months possibly reaching 90%. Ambitious? Possibly, but next year we will see the Tesla Model 3 crossing the ocean, a 60kWh Leaf, the Kia Niro EV, a revised Renault Zoe, the Audi e-Tron, etc...Now, it doesn't sound so outlandish, does it? 

Proof of this never ending electric rise are the final 2018 fuel mix numbers, diesel vehicles ended with 18% share (it was 23% in 2017), gasoline also declined (22% vs 25%, a year ago), while regular hybrids (11%) also had a significant decline, confirming the HEV role as a stop gap into full electrification (Hear that, Toyota?)

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share at 58%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, all the Top 7 models were plugins, and if it wasn't the exceptional result from the Skoda Octavia (fleet deal? Maybe taxis?), with 365 registrations, we would finally have a 100% PEV Top 10.

Maybe next March? Sooner?

Anyway, looking at December Best Sellers, we see the Tesla Model X winning the monthly title, with 1.037 deliveries, with the VW e-Golf  (870 units) winning Silver and the Nissan Leaf ending at the last place of the podium, its lowest standing since January, with the 719 registrations being its lowest result since May. Has the waiting list backlog ended?

A reference to the runnout-mode Kia Soul EV, that had its best month ever, with 197 units, ending right ahead of its cousin Hyundai Kona EV, that with 196 deliveries (and 842 in 2018), hasn't yet started to fulfill in large volumes the thousands-long waiting list in Norway.

Speaking of recent models, the 2018 Rookie of the Year was the #17 Jaguar i-Pace, with the local importer, despite the Netherlands allocation priority, managing to deliver over 1.000 units, 165 of them in December.

Two important models landed in December, with the Audi e-Tron registering its first 7 units, while the Kia Niro EV (aka e-Niro), had 34 units registered last month.

Looking at the 2018 models ranking, the Nissan Leaf won the trophy after a 3 year drought, adding the 2018 statue to the 2014, '13 and '12 edition, with a record 12,000 deliveries.

Last year winner, the VW e-Golf, ended in Second Place, despite a 9% rise in sales, while in 3rd we have the 2017 runner-up, the BMW i3, that has seen its deliveries rise by 13%. 

Elsewhere, the big surprise is the Volvo XC60 PHEV jump from the #15 of 2017, to the current #7, promising to be one of the competitors for the 2019 Best Selling PHEV title, along with the chronic winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (the '18 win was its 3rd in a row) and the upcoming Volvo V60 T8 PHEV.  

Looking at other sub-category prizes, there were no significant news, the small EV Best Seller was once again for the BMW i3, the Best Selling CUV/SUV was the Tesla Model X, for the second time in a row, the Tesla Model S was the Best Selling Luxury Car, while the BMW 225xe A. Tourer was the Best Selling MPV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Nissan (17%, down 2%) ended a four year reign from Volkswagen (14%, down 1%), relegated to Second Place, while BMW (13%) resisted the Tesla (12%, up 1%) sales push, with the German maker winning the Bronze medal, with Volvo (11%) ending in 5th.

Regarding LCVs, sales were up 131%, to 1.761 units (5% share), with the Renault Kangoo ZE (687 units) overcoming the usual winner Nissan e-NV200 (567), while on the FCEV market, 52 units were registered, a 3 units drop(!) regarding 2017, with the Hyundai Nexo (27 units) surpassing the Toyota Mirai (25) in the last month of the year, thus making the 4th consecutive title for Hyundai, the first for the recent Nexo. 

Sharewise, FCEVs profited from the registrations drop (-7%) on the mainstream market, to rise its share from the 0.03% of 2017, to the current...0.04%. At this pace, FCEVs will reach 1% share by the year...2038.  

Finally, looking into 2019, the first spot will most likely go for the Tesla Model 3, with some 15.000 deliveries in Norway, or possibly more, it will depend on wether the Model 3 gets the expected sales from other European countries, if it doesn't, then Tesla will allocate more units to its #1 market in Europe. 

The Nissan Leaf isn't likely to improve significantly on its 2018 sales performance, but it will probably be enough to keep the VW e-Golf and BMW i3 at bay.

Tesla will probably also take the Manufacturers title, as both VW and BMW will be betting in 2020 to go after the #1 spot.


  1. Fantastic numbers, Norway leads! Interesting that those Simply Clever Skodas are the only ones on the conventional specification that still grab interest. How many of those Octavia sales are Diesel?
    Let`s wait for the Model 3 avalanche.

    1. My guess would be less than half were diesel Octavia's.

  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenJanuary 11, 2019

    The Nissan Leaf e+ does not need to improve much to give the Tesla Model 3 a run for its money. Something they likely can't imagine on the other side of the Atlantic.

    The large number of new and improved BEV coming to market in 2019 will give the market a boost all over Europe. I can't wait for the top 20 turning bold in bleu this year.

    1. Ah ah ah, you're right, Tesla is becoming something of a religion, across the Atlantic.

      What they do not realize, is that the North American market is the easiest of the Big Three (North America, Europe and China), not only because of the home advantage, but also because is the least competitive of the 3.

      China is the true Champions league, with over 200 models available, and Tesla should be happy to win the Best Selling foreign model there. A Top 5 standing there is nearly impossible, even in 2020.

      As for Europe, a 2019 win for the Model 3 is the most likely scenario, but without disrupting the market in the same way as on the other side of the Pond.

      And 2020 will be harder to win the trophy, as the VW ID and others, Model Y included, will steal customers for themselves.

    2. Jose, it is hard for me to imagine any other model to score 300K sales in 2020 to confront Model 3.

      VW id is targeting 150k in 2020. Model Y won`t ramp up to 300k in 2020 as well.

      It is 2021 when Model 3 lose №1 spot.

  3. Hello,
    Good news here as usual.
    More on PE_CV please. At least quarterly, global / US, Europe, China. ECVs are coming up as well and they are more important as each ICE_CV spews lots of exhaust.
    One question is I-PACE hitting a demand cliff or are they diverting everything to Netherlands?

    1. Will try.

      Regarding the i-Pace, now that Jaguar have exhausted the orders list in The Netherlands, the true career of the i-Pace will start in January/February, and only then we will see how high they will reach.

      Rumours say they were prepared for a 20k/year production, but due to high demand, they are now ready for 30k/year.

  4. There are some problems i 2019:
    - Tesla M3 are starting deliveries from Mars (maybe February), so no one in January and February, and than we have to wait for cheaper mass marked versions.
    - Just 5000 Leaf 60kWh to Europe in 2019, and rather expensive.
    - Kona, Ampera-e and e-Niro are not delivered in big numbers.
    Maybe it will be an year with much uncertainties among the buyers and a falling total marked because people are waiting got better and/or cheaper EVs?

    1. A lot of uncertainties are at play right now, let's see how things are at the end of Q2 '19, by then we should have a better idea on how the rest of they will go.

    2. I think, Q3 and RWD version of Model 3 will fix these problems in Norway

  5. That is incredible! Norway will be the first country to cross the 50% PEV threshold. It will be fascinating to see what happens next. How quickly will it go to 90 out even 100%? I bet it will happen long before 2025.

    1. I can't tell the exact year, but one thing is for sure, it will happen before 2025.

  6. Norway as strong as expected. The main figure for me is the sales drop in the main stream market (-23%). If this becomes a blue print for bigger markets, traditional manufacturers should be prepared for an eruption of big scale in the coming years.

    Interesting to see is also the iPace and it brings me back to the Netherlands in December. It clearly shows that Jaguar obviously has catered the dutch market first and allocated all its December production to that market.

    1. I am starting to see a trend on that aspect, once a given market hits +/-10% PEV share, the mainstream market starts to shrink.

      And the higher the PEV share, the larger the drop.

    2. In China PEV shera is just 5% and mainstream market is in huge troubles.

      US market falls as well.

      The end for ICE is much closer then 95% of people thinks

    3. I am not sure if its immediately the end for the ICE but surely a big impact will come in the next 24-36 months.
      Many manufacturers are launching new EV's in 2020-2022 and once all these flow into the market, the impact of EV's can also be seen on the streets.
      And after 2022 the EV adoption will probably even accelerate

    4. I agree, sometime in 2021/2, the mainstream market will crash, that added to the continued growth of EVs, it will mean market share will grow faster than before.