Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Netherlands December 2018

Resultado de imagem para jaguar i-pace netherlands
Boatloads of i-Pace were delivered 

Jaguar i-Pace was the Best Selling Vehicle in December (But the Tesla Model S was the 2018 #1 PEV) 

December had 6,232 plugin registrations, a four-fold increase regarding the same month last year and the market best month since December '16, which translates into a strospheric 31% PEV Share in December, pulling the 2018 PEV share to 6%, a great result, especially when we realise that BEVs represented 89% of registrations in 2018, and 98% in December alone.

Of course, the higher taxation of expensive BEVs in 2019 is the major reason for this surge, but something tells me (ahem, Tesla Model 3...) that this exponential growth is set to continue through 2019.

This good market performance was the result of three exceptional individual results, starting with the Best Seller of the Month, the Jaguar i-Pace, that delivered 2,621 units, not only a new all-time record for a BEV, but also the first time that a 100% electric vehicle became the Best Selling nameplate in the mainstream market.

The Tesla Model S also shined, scoring 1,558 units, while its Model X sibling won the last place of the podium, with 652 deliveries, with both Teslas establishing new record highs.

Interestingly, these three models all showed up on the top spots of the December mainstream market, besides the aforementioned win from the Jaguar i-Pace, the Model S was #2 in December, while the Model X was #5, thus making 3 BEVs in the mainstream Top 5. How long will it take the yearly ranking to look like this?

But there were others beyond the podium bearers to shine, the BMW i3 had its best month in its 5 year career, by delivering 272 units (all BEV), proving once again the formula: "+ range = + sales" .

Just outside the Top 5, there was one significant performance, with the #7 Hyundai Kona EV delivering 152 units, let's hope the Korean maker can find enough batteries to satisfy the overwhelming demand for its electric Crossover, there is a rumour circuling around that Hyundai has already 120,000 orders for it globally...I doubt that it could be true, but even if it is half of that, it is still a giant headache for the Korean head honchos ("Where are we gonna find 60,000 batteries for the Kona?!? Wheeere????"). 

Jaguar i-Pace
Tesla Model S
Tesla Model X
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the big news is the Jaguar i-Pace 6 positions jump to 2nd Spot, preventing Tesla from making a 1-3 podium win. 

Nevertheless, the Tesla Model S was the 2018 Best Selling PEV, with over 5,600 deliveries, winning its second (and last - because Model 3) title in a row, with the Nissan Leaf ending the year in 3rd, its first podium since...2011. 

Outside the podium, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was the Best Selling PHEV, its first title since 2015, when it was that year Best Selling PEV.  

The BMW i3 was the Best Selling Small Car, in #6, outselling once again its rival Renault Zoe, that ended in #8.

As for the #11 Hyundai Kona EV, a lot is expected in 2019, so a Top 5 should be easy to earn, and assuming there's enough batteries, it could even have a go at the medal positions of the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3.

A reference to the Audi e-Tron joining the ranking in #15, thanks to its first 163 deliveries, which makes us wonder how high would it reach, if it hadn't experienced production delays...

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the (slow) deliveries ramp up of the Kia Niro EV (aka, e-Niro), that has delivered 40 units last month, with the Korean looking for a possible Top 10 presence in 2019.

Finally, a reference to the 2019 Best Seller, the Tesla Model 3. How high will it go? My bet will be around 14,000 units, making it not only a strong candidate for the #1 spot in the local mainstream market, but also one of the two top markets, volume-wise, for the Tesla midsizer in Europe, with the other big market being Norway, where a "Model 3 mania" is sure to happen this year.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (33%, up 2%) won its 2nd consecutive title, with Jaguar (13%) winning the Silver medal at the last minute, overrunning Nissan (12%), that dropped to 3rd.

In the LCV category (+91% YoY, with some 1,000 units), after the 2017 win, the StreetScooter vans took once again the Best Seller title, leaving the competition in the dust, with the German vans being responsible for half of the registrations.

Source: RAI Vereniging


  1. Well, 14,000 units it is a lot steep on a flat ground as The Netherlands is, maybe less than 7,000 units will be a celebration. When a BMW i3, an e-Golf and a Leaf thrown together barely reach that, a more expensive and least luxurious Model 3 will face it hard, not counting with delivery issues. An open road could be failing Model S and Model X sales, as expected.

    1. Tesla Model S & X sales in 2019 will surely suffer, not only from the Model 3 competition, but especially from the new fiscal rules.

      Tesla deliveries in January will be close to zero.

    2. Hmm, Tesla already has registered 432 vehicles in January until January 9th.

  2. In 2019 we will be back to <10% numbers again. The Model 3 would be lucky to go higher than 5k sales in the Netherlands in 2019. My guess would be somewhere around ~4k deliveries for the full year.

  3. 2600 iPace in Netherlands is much more impressive than 4000 Tesla X in USA or 6000 Tang in China given the populations. Good Job Jag.

    1. Good point as Netherlands is a country with a population of 17 millions and with an average PIB/hab. of some $60.000. Thus, Tesla did something even better in December 2015 when they manage to deliver some 1.250 Model S in a country with the same PIB/hab., but with a population of only 5 million!

  4. Amazing result. I did not expect Jaguar I Pace to come in the numbers that they did. December made the whole year look great.

    All the new models ramping up should lead to even better results in 2019. Let the Model 3 flood begin!

  5. Again, the mass models like Leaf, Zoe, BMWi3.... significantly underperformed. It looks like EVs can conquer the premium market, yet cannot go into mass market.

    1. 2019 will should show a different picture, below the Model 3, you should only see smaller EVs, like the Leaf, Zoe, i3, Kona, Niro, etc.

  6. Lot of speculation here. The iPace is surely impressive and also unexpected. But very unlikely that sales will continue on that level, considering that Jaguar plans an annual production of just 30k units.

    Reason for the high december numbers could also be that Jaguar prioritiezed the Netherland orders in December and allocated most of their production output for that market.

    Once Tesla opens the pipeline for the M3 in Europe the iPace will face a tough time. It has an extremely low efficiency (24-28KWh p. 100km) and a poor AC charging capacity (7KW). The M3 outperforms the iPace in almost any aspect.

    In two/three months the whole picture can change since almost all EV's are overbooked. Its rather a question in which market the manufacturers are selling their capacities than in which market they generate most orders.
    Model 3, Leaf, Kona, Ioniq are all examples