Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Markets Roundup December 2018

Image result for EV cars gathering

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:


* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.


* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 


* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

Image result for EV's in hong Kong

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.


  1. Assumig Tesla with a 6.000 units steady weekly production cadence of Model 3 in 2019, it gives roughly 132.000 units until end of June 2019. So, if we assume that 12.000 units every month are destined to Europe alone, it will only give 120.000 units. The problem here so far is that the first two vehicle carriers destined for Europe, will only reach Zebrugee-Belgium on the first week of February, which means that the first 12.000 units of January 2019 are already eroded from the counting. At this point also, no one has the knowledge that inside of the each vehicle carriers are 6.000 Model 3 units, add to that, the capacity for Tesla Europe to unload and dispacth all of them to customers until end of February 2019, it is then to expect best chances of maybe 6.000 Model 3 registered units for the period January-February 2019. If we add all that and extrapolate for the period in analysis, it gives at best around 55.000 Model 3 units. I expect many Model 3 sales in Europe, at least there are many people with reservations for it, but seriously doubt there are that many queuing for buying Performance and Long Range AWD versions of it.
    This leaves us directly to the sales chart, so far, in the previous year, both the Renault Zoe and the Nissan Leaf have managed to deliver around 20.000 units on a 6 months period, both, a lot more affordable and manufactured directly in Europe.

    1. i guess it will depend on a number of things, namely the MR version volume availabity and when will the SR version land in Europe.

      Let's wait and see.

  2. India started much later in the Solar Power and today, its World #5 and the same thing will happen with plugin vehicles. The 2,000 vehicles sold is just the seed and it will start sprouting rapidly.

  3. I would like to see a top 10 by market share

    1. Besides the aforementioned China, USA and Canada, we have these markets above 2%:

      Portugal - 3.6%

      Austria - 2.6%

      France - 2.1%

      Iceland - 19%

      Norway - 49%

      Finland - 4.7%

      Netherlands - 6%

      Belgium - 2.5%

      Sweden - 8%

      Switzerland - 2.9%

  4. Well, Russia and Ukraine have neglible sales of new EVs, but they are market for the used Leaf, primarly from Japan. Used EV sales have grown in Russia from 1 049 in 2017 to 2 239 in 2018, with Leaf having 90% share. These Leafs are used cars imported from Japan to Russian Far East, and mostly stayed there. In Ukraine,total EV sales have also grown in 2,2 times up to 5300 sales in 2018(83% used cars). Both countries are pretty poor with average monthly income is around 500$ in Russia and 330$ in Ukraine. But EV have more economic sense in Ukraune, as gasoline in Russia is the cheapest in Europe(and both countries have pretty low electricity prices). Ukraine also have much better charging network(already), warmer climate and smaller distances between cities.

    Anyway, do not expect meaningfull Tesla sales for the next few years, as Teslas hold their resale value nicely, and used Model 3 would hit market only in 3 years in the best case.

    1. I agree with most of your post, but i still think Tesla should open a Store in Ukraine, i think the sales there justify it.

    2. Yep, the EV community in Ukraine is very Tesla friendly. And in Russia actually too, despite some anti-Mask propaganda, which had origin mostly from recent Roskosmos failures (opposition in internet likes to point on Roskosmos vs SpaceX comparison, and goverment TV usually reply in "Musk is a fraudster and showman" news stories).

      *The source of used Leafs in Russia and Ukraine is different: Leafs come to Ukraine mostly from US, and to Russia mostly from Japan

    3. Thank you for the input.