Thursday, January 31, 2019

Global Top 20 - December 2018

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 lot

Models: (2018 Best Seller) Tesla Model 3 hits (another) Record in a historic December

Registrations grew 70%  YoY in December, to an historic 286,000 units, making a 4 times streak of record months. 

This brilliant performance helped the yearly tally to cross the 2 million PEVs mark, placing the final 2018 global PEV share, at 2,1% share, with this volume representing a big 72 65% improvement regarding 2017, meaning the market accelerated in 2018, regarding the previous year, as the 2017 growth YoY had been 58%.

Interestingly, the last 9 months always had 60%-plus growth rates, with the last 3 months showing 70%-something numbers, which could mean that 2019 the market will grow at least as fast as in 2018, which could place the total numbers of this year at 3,5 million, and almost 4% share. (And 7% in 2020? 12% in 2021? This would set the Big ICE Vehicle Crash two years from now).

In December the question at the top was knowing if the Silver Medal would change hands, and in deed it did, with the BAIC EC-Series finally overcoming the Nissan Leaf, with last year winner ending 2018 with Silver, far behind this year winner, the Tesla Model 3, that celebrated its first trophy with yet another all-time record, by delivering over 25,000 units last month.

Despite dropping to 3rd, the Nissan Leaf had reasons to celebrate, as it returned to the podium, after having being left out in 2017, finally beating its 2014 record (61.013 units).

In a record month, there was a lot to talk about, with the Tesla Model X jumping 2 positions to 5th, making 3 Teslas in the Top 5(!), while on the other hand, the Prius PHEV, Toyota's only plugin model, dropped three positions in one month, to #9, a position that pales compared to the 3rd spot of 2017. Do i hear an alarm call at Toyota HQ? Are they listening?

A telling tale of the disruption that is happening, is that despite being only #9, the Japanese hatchback was the Second Best Selling model, coming from a Legacy OEM. Above it, we have 3 Teslas, 2 BYD, 1 BAIC, one JAC model and the Nissan Leaf. 

Disruption is coming in two ways, one comes from Tesla, the other, from China.

As for the remaining ranking, the Renault Zoe and the BMW 530e took the last month of the year to climb positions, with the French reaching #11, thanks to a record 5.519 deliveries, while the German was up to #12, thanks to a best ever score of 6.215 units.

But the Climbers of the Month came from China, the Tang PHEV, one of BYD's Dynamic Duo, climbed to #16, with a record 6.809 units, while the Tang's Robin, the Yuan EV, jumped three positions, to #17 in December, securing not only its status of Rookie Of The Year, but being also the 5th(!) BYD in this Top 20.

Other Chinese lineup shining in December was BAIC, not only the EC-Series won Silver, but the EU-Series sedan and EX-Series crossover joined the Top 20, with the sedan jumping to #15, thanks to an amazing 12.561 units, being only the third model to get a monthly 10.000 units-plus performance (the other two were the Tesla Model 3 and BAIC EC-Series), while the crossover sneaked into #20, thanks to a record 6.844 registrations.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by yet another 2%, to 69% of the total market, mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 1411 2011! 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla wins the 2018 Trophy *

December saw Tesla and BYD race for the monthly Manufacturers title, with both scoring impressive record performances, but in the end, Tesla took the December award, with almost 40.000 units. 

After 10 years on the market, Tesla has finally become the Best Selling EV maker in the World, with 245.000 units, winning over the previous Best Seller, BYD, with a 18.000 units advantage

Looking into 2019, Tesla is set to repeat the title, and right now, BYD seems to be the only maker able to follow Tesla's pace. Is it a coincidence that both do not depend of third party battery makers? 

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, both #3 BAIC and the #4 BMW broke their personal records in December, being the only other makers to surpass the 100.000 mark.

The most important changes happened in #8, with Hyundai shooting 5 spots, to #8, thanks to a record 8.174 registrations, and in #9, with Renault climbing to #9, with a record 7.188 units. Is it a coincidence that both are beating sales records at the same time that their battery provider (LG Chem) is finally ramping up production?
Below the Top 10, there were several Chinese makers beating records and climbing positions, JAC climbed to #13, with a record 8.520 units, while JMC was up to #15, thanks to an amazing 12.349 registrations, and Dongfeng had a personal best performance of 11.212 units, allowing it to reach #18. 

Grouping sales by brand origin, Chinese makers ended the year with 49% of share in the 2018 sales, a 4% increase regarding 2017, with the USA makers (16%) stable in Second, with Tesla compensating for the US Legacy OEMs drop, but the #3 Germany is losing steam fast, with the German OEMs losing 7% share from 2017 (19%) to 2018 (12%).

* - In the Light vehicle market, if we add Heavy Duty Vehicles (Buses and Trucks), BYD was still the Top Dog, with 247.000 units. 

Segment Leaders

A / City Car - In a segment completely owned by Chinese OEMs, the BAIC EC-Series is the undisputed King;

B / Subcompact - The Renault Zoe continues to outsell the BMW i3;

C / Compact - The Nissan Leaf recovered the title, with the BYD Qin PHEV and BYD e5 following it at a distance; 

D / Midsize - What has been expected, happened: The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed, class leader;

E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S, hands down leader since 2012. Second Place is in the hands of the successful (#12) BMW 530e, followed by the Porsche Panamera PHEV (10.000 units);

Sports car / Coupé / Convertible - BMW i8 (2.911 units), is in the lead once again, without real competition, for reference, the Second Placed was the recently arrived BAIC Arcfox Lite (Well, if one can consider it a Coupé...), with 614 units;

SUV / Crossover - The hottest class on the Automotive World is seeing its class poster-child, the Tesla Model X, in front, followed by the Renault Captur-like JAC iEV7S/E (#7) and the #10 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV;

MPV / Minivan - A class that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Crossover craze, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer is still the segment Best Seller (14.076 units), followed by the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (8.629 units);

LCV / Van - The Renault Kangoo ZE profited from the new 33kWh battery to jump ahead, with 8.537 units, followed by the StreetScooter (4.842 units) and the Nissan e-NV200 (4.280);

Pick up Truck - The Chinese Dongfeng Rich EV (632 units) repeated last year title, being the only model to reach significant numbers. This is a golden opportunity that no one so far (Chinese included) has tried to take. Will we all have to wait for Rivian to land?


  1. Tesla needs also a SUV or crossover to really succeed in the upper range of the mass market. The Kona and the Nio are extremely well positioned in this respect.

  2. "* - In the Light vehicle market, if we add Heavy Duty Vehicles (Buses and Trucks), BYD was still the Top Dog, with 247.000 units."
    Even so, with the last night Tesla 2018 q4 earnings results, we can now sum all the Tesla deliveries of each quarter. For Model 3 we had 8.182 + 18.449 + 56.065 + 63359 = 149.055 cars delivered in 2018. For the S and X we had 21.815 + 22.319 + 27.710 + 27.607 = 99.451 cars delivered in 2018. In sum, Tesla delivered 248.506 cars in 2018, so above this 247.000 general estimate for BYD.

  3. Jose,

    You say that the increase from 2017 is 72%. However, according to your post regarding December 2017 the aggregate sales were 1,224,103, which would imply a (still huge) increase of 64.87%. Am I missing something?

    1. You're right, it's 65%. Will correct it.

  4. What's the #4 country of origin? South Korea or Japan seems most likely to me, but maybe it's France?

    Or might it be the UK or Italy... or is there another country with an automaker making a significant number of EVs that I forgot about?

    1. It's Japan, with 9% share. It had 11% in 2017...And 38% in 2014!

      Talk about missing opportunity...

    2. Nissan Leaf missed its target by the factor of two: "Nissan has big ambitions for the new version, with a sales target of 150.000 units, possibly earning it the class best seller status and a podium seat in the PEV ranking". Do you think it was production or demand constrained?

  5. Excellent news. Worldwide sales of 2,018,247 is really great.
    Tesla is #1 and its Model-3/S/X are #1, #4, #5 and taking 3 of the Top-5 spots.

    A small company makes wonders. What is even great is that all of its vehicles are fully electric and can travel the full distance unlike other EVs which can go only 150 - 250 km.

  6. José, doing the math with my phone, I typed 59.065 Tesla Model 3 delivered in Q3 instead of 56.065, so the right numbers are 145.055 Model 3 delivered in 2018 and a total of 245.506 Tesla cars in 2018. Thus, your comment about BYD being ahead of Tesla counting with trucks end heavy vehicles was right. My bad. Sorry.

    1. It is the common practice in the automotive industry to report top manufacturers by segment. In the heavy-duty segment you got Daimler, Scania, Hino, etc. When Toyota, VW or GM were the global top selling manufacturer of year XX, sales refered to passenger cars (sedans, SUVs, etc.) Does BMW count its motorcycles to rank among car manufacturerer. Please, we should not mix bananas and apples. So, because BYD lost the crown after 3 years-in-a-row of being King, the Chinese company is now counting differently just to say they were ahead of Tesla?
      Not fair to change the rules when you are losing. Tesla is the #1 manufacturer of plug-in electric vehicles for 2018!

    2. 146.055 Tesla model 3 in 2018 in fact. Well, I was really distracted yesterday...The total of 245.506 is right, ouf!

    3. True, that's i said that Tesla won the 2018 title. I just put the asterisk to mention the total number of EVs made by BYD.

    4. Yes but we do not yet have a nice score card for heavies. (Please Jose, quarterly report on heavies would be very nice.) After all they are also E Vehicles. Also the Diesels they replace spew a lot more pollutants.

  7. Great work Jose, as usual, congrats!
    Nitpicking, based on Tesla's figures announced yesterday, there is a revised figure for Model 3 sales: + 209 units. Then, the total you reported here would rise to 146,055. Grande abraço Ze.

    1. More nitpicking: Mitsu reported 42,337 Outlander PHEVs, slightly higher than reported here, check:

  8. Jose, can you please provide the top 20 list excluding the Chinese plug-ins ?

    1. Hi, Jose, maybe you can just provide final numbers on some other non-Chinese EVS?)

    2. Any models in particular?

    3. Nothing particular. Just those that were close to top-20 in 2018)

    4. Here are the most important non-Chinese EVs that were below the Top 20:
      Chevrolet Bolt - 28k;
      VW eGolf - 24k;
      Chevrolet Volt - 23k.

    5. Maybe a lost it José, but do you have any number for Total 2018 I-Pace sales? Thanks.

    6. Thanks José. If they could sold at least 25.000 of them in 2019, it would be good.

  9. Jose,

    Thanks for all the posts in 2018.

    And 2019 is going to be an even more interesting year.

    We all will appreciate all your posts in 2019.

    May the force be with you.


  10. Jose,

    Really interesting post - couple of questions:
    1. When you say ICE Vehicle Crash, is this an arbitrary measure of the percentage market share required for EV's to be far enough along the technology adoption curve that the main global players will rapidly switch from ICE's to EV's? Or is it taking it into account falling battery prices? Or anything else?

    2. How reliable is your data - as in how much uncertainty do you think there is in a statistic such as 286,000 units sold in December worldwide? Do you get this statistic as a whole from somewhere, or are you personally collaborating data from different EV producers?

    Thanks for your time, big fan


    1. 1 - A bit of both:
      - There seems to be a trend that when a market hits close to 10% PEV share, the mainstream market starts to shrink, as people switch en masse from ICE to EV;
      - Also, in two years time, the number of competitive models, both in price and range, will be far higher than today, which added to the increased production capacity, will offer more choices, expanding demand;
      - These two factors combined will create a perfect storm for the ICE->EV switch, aka ICE vehicle crash.

      2 - All data come from real registrations numbers, if any, these numbers are lower than reality, because i believe there could be more markets/model sales than the ones i have. So, the reality could be some 10% higher than the ones i have here.