Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Europe September 2020


VW ID.3 galore...

 

12% share in record month! 


The European passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered a record 160,000 registrations in September (+166% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 12% share (7.1% BEV), and pulling the 2020 PEV share to 9% (4.9% for BEVs alone), which is getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

..So expect next year to be #Disruption '21!

This sales push is benefiting BEVs (91,615 units, +120% YoY), but especially PHEVs, whose sales are jumping through the roof (+268%!), pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown close to parity between both technologies, as plugin hybrids have 46% of registrations this year.

With fresh units coming from Fremont, the Model 3 had the expected end-of-quarter high tide, winning last month Best Seller title, its second in a row, and despite losing the Best Seller title to the Californian, the Renault Zoe scored a record month, with over 11,000 deliveries, while the last place of the podium went to the VW ID.3, that officially landed with a bang, with over 8,000 registrations, although many were expecting VW's hatchback to land with a five-digit performance...Maybe in October?



Looking at September Top 5 Models:


#1 Tesla Model 3 – The sports sedan returned to form in a high tide month, by having 16,125 deliveries last month, a new Year Best. Regarding September, the Model 3 main markets were the UK (4,800 units, a new record), Germany (2,776), Norway (1,116 units, new year best) and France (1,083). While October will see the Model 3 having a slow month, November should bring the sedan back into the first positions again (maybe with the help of the Made-in-China SR version?), while December could bring another Best Seller title for the Californian.


#2 Renault Zoe – Super-September brought a record 11,026 deliveries to the French model, with Renault going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (3,603 units, new record), followed by France (2,878), the UK (1,800 units, new record) and Italy (676). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership. 


#3 Volkswagen ID.3 - After months (years?) of anticipation, the 2021 Best Selling EV in Europe has finally landed, having delivered the first 8,571 registrations, surely the first of several (hundreds of) thousands. Volkswagen's new Golf IX MEB EV main markets for September delivery were Norway (1,989 units), Germany (1,771) and the UK (650), with France (616) and The Netherlands (609) not far off. Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe for the monthly Best Seller titles. 


#4 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production constraints, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates for its small crossover, thanks to the Czech plant production, scoring a record 6,143 deliveries in Super-September and allowing another Top 5 standing. After the waiting list being finally emptied (in October?), we will finally start to see the real demand level of the small crossover (3,000/month? More?). Back to last month performance, the UK was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,800 deliveries, followed by Germany (1,526 units) and France (559). 


#Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the maker star player, with September registering a record 4,772 units, it's 3rd record performance in a row, with the biggest market being the UK (1,900 units, a new record), followed by Germany, with 1,404 registrations, and France (382 units, new record). Is this the future of plugin hybrid models?


Looking at the remaining September Best Sellers, the Kia Niro EV once again ended the  month in #6, and once again with a record score, in this case 4,565 deliveries, its second third record performance in a row!

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, besides the aforementioned models, the Volvo XC40 PHEV (4,199 units), Mercedes GLC300e/de (3,043), Audi Q5 PHEV (2,972), and BMW X5 PHEV (2,799) all hit record scores, all of these sharing a common trend: Premium plugin hybrid SUVs. Let's hope these tanks are at least plugged in regularly... 

On the BEV side, we also have models shining, like the Opel Corsa EV, that hit a record 2,725 registrations last month, that is already closing in to its French cousin Peugeot 208 EV (2,963 units, best result since February), while the Polestar 2 hit a personal best 2,461 deliveries,  but even veterans like the BMW i3 (2,960 units, new year best) or the Nissan Leaf (3,244 units, best result in 18 months), which means that the current EV fever is not only benefiting recent launches, but also older models. 

Outside this Top 20, a reference to several models in ramp-up mode, like the Mini Cooper EV, that hit 2,062 units last month, the Mercedes CLA250e sports sedan scored a record 1,314 units, while the Skoda Superb PHEV registered a record 1,757 units.

Interestingly, the other Skoda plugin, the little Citigo EV, also scored a record result, with 1,757 units, beating its German (e-Up - 1,728 units) and Spanish (e-Mii - 713) twins.

Three other models reached relevant scores, with the Smart Fortwo EV reaching a record 2,114 units(!), while SAIC's MG ZS EV registered a record 2,181 units and the Kia Niro PHEV registered 1,959 units, a new best for the Korean plugin hybrid, that despite this, dropped from the YTD Top 20...With everyone pushing their limits, sometimes doing your best is simply not enough.





Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the Renault Zoe keeping enough distance from the runner-up Tesla Model 3 to remain a comfortable leader, while the Hyundai Kona EV is getting ready to take the 3rd spot from the sunset-mode VW e-Golf.

The troubled #6 Ford Kuga PHEV remained the Best Selling PHEV, but lost some ground to the veteran Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, now just 206 units behind, but both have to look behind too, as both the rising #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV and #15 Mercedes A250e are delivering units in record numbers and could steal the show in the last minutes of 2020, if the Outlander PHEV loses the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

Looking at position changes, the Peugeot 208 EV and Nissan Leaf climbed one position each, to #7 and #8, respectively, while in the second half of the table, the BMW i3 was up to #14.

The #10 Kia Niro EV is closing in to the #9 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and should surpass it in October, thus making 8 BEVs in the 9 first spots.

We have a new face in the Top 20, with the BMW X5 PHEV yacht large SUV joining the table in #19, being only the second full-size model on the Top 20 (the other is the #5 Audi e-Tron).

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (10%, up 1%) has won precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), while Tesla (9%, up 1%) rose to the 3rd spot, at the expense of BMW (8%, down 1%), with the Bavarian maker falling from #3 to #5 in just one month, as the #4 Mercedes (8%, up 1%) and #5 Volvo (8%) have surpassed it in September.






BEV D-Segment / Midsize category





Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop 8% YoY last month, it won't have significant competition in the near future, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (2,461 units last month) is present in a limited number of markets and will remain a niche player this year, with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021, while the Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark. As for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells Mercedes EQC-level of deliveries...

The real competition should only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it should also outsell it.

As for the remaining podium, the Mercedes EQC has increased its lead over the Jaguar i-Pace, profiting from the sales decline of the British sports SUV (-23% YoY), but in September both lost to the new Polestar 2, as the Sino-Swede had its own Super-September, by delivering 2,461 units, far more that the 1,547 of the EQC or the 994 of the i-Pace.



BEV E-Segment / Full size category





The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,532 units last month, representing a 129% sales increase YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,017 units last month) now in cruise speed, both flagship Teslas shined in September and managed to recover some space to the Porsche sports sedan, with the Model S delivering 1,328 units, its best result in 15 months, while the Model X did even better, by registering 1,633 units, the Sports-Minivan-SUV-Crossover best score since December 2018...

...It looks like many buyers that were waiting for a refreshed Model S/X reveal on Battery Day, just went to the closeby Tesla Store on the next day, and bought an inventory Model S/X, that, coincidentally or not, by that time had a higher than average stock level...One would almost say that Tesla sent more inventory units than usual in Q3, because it knew this would happen...

This is still a rarefied market, but in the next few months there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), so the 2021 race should be more interesting to follow.

42 comments:

  1. October is the first full month for VW ID3. Norway October ID3 sales aready so far at 2200 suggest a record number for European October sales.

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    1. 2200 in the first full sales month is shockingly low... Even the e-tron has had higher sales in some months.

      What's going on? Still not enough stock, despite almost a year of production? Or does nobody want the "1st edition", people instead waiting of the other variants?...

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    2. Personally, i would go for the 77 kWh version and 550 kms WLTP. It's a whole lot of range for the money VW is asking.

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    3. I would not oppose id3 and t3.They are on the same side.ICE need to be hit with all guns:)

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  2. I have to wonder how many europeans are waiting for the Tesla factory to come online before they decide which car they will buy.

    I don't mean they are all waiting to buy Teslas, but rather they are waiting to see the Teslas first and then they buy something.

    Next year is going to huge for all BEVs.

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    1. Unless they are interested in the Model Y specifically, I don't see why people would wait for the European factory before making a decision...

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    2. Most Europeans are. Do you see many sedans on the top 20 list above other than the 3?

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    3. Well, the Polstar 2 is a sedan; and technically, the Passat is too (though the vast majority of sales is most likely wagon variants); plus a few more in the YTD table...

      But good point that they are all far behind. The question though is whether that's really indicative of everyone waiting for Model Y -- or rather, just shows that Model 3 totally dominates the sedan class, while there is a lot more interesting choice in crossovers?...

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    4. @Antrik: That is an interresting perspective, because in the ICE world, there is also a difference between the Car and SUV market, while the 3 Mary's (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) dominate with an iron fist the Car market, in the SUV category, their grip isn't as strong...Maybe the same will happen in the BEV market, once it gets more mature, the only difference being that Tesla will be another Mary, thus being the 4 Mary's...

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  3. Woohoo, Europeans shatter the records with 160.059 units. 12% share is really great and I hope this will be norm in the coming months and years.

    Nice to see Model 3 hitting another record and closing gap with #1 Zoe. Another nice thing in Model S selling 1.328 units with Model X selling 1.633 units.

    Yes many expected refresh on battery day, but Tesla wanted to reinforce the fact that they do regular refreshes and not believe in redesign every 4-6 years. Model S range has increased from 424 km in 2012 to 643 km in 2020. Model X range has increased from 381 km in 2016 to 394 km in 2021. Besides the efficiency has also increased drastically which could reduce the customers electricity bills.

    A redesign means changes in many parts, notifying the suppliers, dealers, design, testing, certification which could cost $100 million. Instead Tesla is willing to give that money as discount to customers and they are happy. Model S cost is down to $69.420. Try to find a BEV with 643 km EPA range which should easily be above 650 km WLTP.

    1 more important fact. Model S with fastback(hatch) style is lot more functional and you can carry many big items by folding rear seat which is not possible in any sedan. I carried a 10 foot long lumber in smaller Prius hatchback with hatch door open.

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    1. No need to guess: the Model S LR+ has 652 km WLTP.

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  4. Sept 2020 will be remembered as the month when disruption started in the old continent. Thanks for your service Jose.

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  5. Wow, VW ID.3 splashes with a record 8.571 units in 1st month when many PEVs never hit 8K in their entire lifetime. And that too with only the high end trim with 4 seater option. When the mid range 5 seater options starts, it should hit big records. Its next target is overtaking Mitsubishi iMiev with 50.000 + sales. For sure it will be in top-20 in october and may even enter top-15. Soon europeans will wave good bye to outlander in top-20.

    Come on VW, you can launch ID.3 in USA. When Golf hatch can sell and when Prius hatch sold 150.000 units in its heyday, ID.3 will also sell. After all its taller resembling a crossover and has a big trunk space. Dont give excuses that only crossovers sell.

    If you want market share in USA and want to make ID.3 a global car, then USA the worlds #2 market should have it. There are many enthusiastic BEV buyers here as well.

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    1. No, it’s the 77 kWh version that will only have four seats and that have not start selling yet. There will later come a cheaper version and this was the first month so it definitely have potential to grow but maybe not as much as you described.

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    2. It’s the mid range version with five seats that are for sale now, the top end version and the cheapest version will come later.

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  6. With Europe being the Worlds #1 market in both Sep & YTD and plugin hybrids experiencing a massive 268% indicates that they are going to play a bigger role. Benz A250e is a right model with a big 64 km range and this should be an attractive option to many who dont want range anxiety. Its aided by GLC 300e/de.

    After mild hybrids with 0,5 KWh battery having a big chunk of sales, full hybrids with 1,5 KWh battery plays the next big role. Similarly plugin hybrids between 10 KWh to 20 KWh battery should play the next higher role instead of BEVs.

    VW Golf PHEV is going to join soon and may be a big hit if priced right. Soon the standard petrol/diesel versions may face big competition from 3 types of hybrids (mild, full, plugin).

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    1. Don't count on PHEVs playing a bigger role. After the latest study showing PHEVs averaging two to four times the official CO2 emissions in real use, at least here in Germany the media, and subsequently politicians, have finally waken up to the PHEV lie. Hopefully we should see some changes to the inappropriately high PHEV subsidies as a result -- and without these inappropriately high subsidies, PHEVs will lose momentum very quickly again.

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    2. @antrik

      For someone who wants a car with 500 km range, there are very few models and even fewer dealers who have in stock. Still some dealers may markup a huge premium.
      For those, instead of buying a petrol/diesel with 15 km/l, it makes better sense to buy a plugin hybrid with 40 km/l= and 20 km/l when running on fuel.

      Only up to 300 km range, the efficiency of BEV & PHEV are same because the engine weight matches the battery weight, beyond 300 km, PHEVs could be efficient. For those who drive longer distance frequently BEVs are better.

      Tesla is trying to make BEVs better regularly, still some way to go with their cars being expensive and coming under luxury class.

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    3. You could argue that PHEVs make sense in certain situations (and I could argue that these are very few, especially with more and more affordable long-range BEVs) -- but the undeniable truth of the matter is that very few people actually want a mediocre PHEV, unless they are basically paid for getting one even without using the battery...

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    4. @antrik
      +1
      PHEV without subsides means nothing.Complex and harmful technology

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  7. @Jose Pontes: Thanks again for the split of Sep/YTD for Europe. This not only gives more info, but also how models performed between month & year.

    How come ID.3 sold more in Norway a small country compared to Germany which is a big and home country for VW. Is this some tweaking on VW part or german dealers hiding cars under the pillow.

    I think Polestar 2 has more than doubled sales compared to previous month, will it keep increasing?

    Any update on BMW i3 battery. 200.000 i3 were produced though sales is slightly below that #.

    EPA has announced data for Model 3/Y/X - 2021 now itself and its gone up compared to 2020. But for Bolt, Leaf, i3, etron, its still not there and they may come much later, it shows the lack of interest among legacy automakers.

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    1. I think VW prioritizing Norway has to do with the development of that market, that has already hit EV maturity, while in Germany they can replace ID.3 sales for something else (VW Golf VIII, etc), in Norway is (B)EV or bust, so they don't really have an alternative to the ID.3 there...

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  8. The first Tesla boat from China is only expected to arrive towards the end of November -- so it will mostly reflect in December deliveries, not so much November.

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  9. The way things are going, it looks like we might very well see October ending with only BEVs in the top 8 spots...

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    1. id3 in October 17-19k.with only BEVs in the top9 spots

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    2. Even better :-)

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  10. Regarding Model S/X stock, it appears they are sold out for the quarter in Europe... Not sure whether it's the price drop, the range increase for most variants, or the not-announcement of a further refresh (aside from the Plaid S further out): but it seems sales have finally picked up again for these models.

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    1. No likely. With a rehitered (21.10.2020) S and X 90,000 vehicles production capacity, Tesla only manages to build 38,708 units of them over a period of 9 months. Are they capable of managing to build the remaining 51,292 vehicles in the last 3 months of the year? Better for them start to even more hastily cobbling together those Plaid aces.

      written by Looney Tunes

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    2. The fuck are you on about? 90,000 yearly capacity means they could build 22,500 in Q4 best case, now that demand seems up again.

      (Though it might not even be this many, since suppliers also have to ramp up again in order for Tesla to utilise the full installed capacity...)

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  11. If Mercedes A250e keeps up present pace it will be in top 5 or even top 3 next year. Model 3 may have a hard time to stay in top 5 next year once model Y trickles in.

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    1. It won't. There is no way a run-of-the-mill PHEV will stay anywhere near this high after the initial wave.

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  12. In Norway Model 3 suffers a lot. VW sold more ID 3 in two months than Tesla model 3 in the whole year.

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    1. Model 3 will fight for n1 this year in Norway.Don't worry,Model 3 is fine.

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    2. Hoping that you BELIEVE in that. That will be 2 or 3 boats of them, no? So those 5 boats will be just 2 for remain of Europe, or will they be just for UK leases?

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    3. Depending on how much ID.3 delivers in the next two months, it would probably take less then two boatloads for Model 3 to regain the top in Norway... And there will be surely more than five boats heading for Europe as the quarter progresses.

      Having said that, I personally don't expect Model 3 to regain the top position in Norway... As amazing as it is, it's just not in any of the most mainstream market segments.

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  13. In Norway EV sale stopped.Everyone is waiting for M3?

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  14. Surprisingly Mazda mx 30 sells well across Europe

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  15. Sales started LEXUS UX300E and Volvo XC40EV

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    1. Some interesting numbers to look forward to :-)

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