Friday, September 25, 2020

Europe August 2020

 



11% share! 


The European passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered over 97,000 registrations in August (+171% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 11% share (5.7% BEV), and pulling the 2020 PEV share to 8.4% (4.5% for BEVs alone), which is getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

..So expect next year to be #Disruption '21!

This sales push is benefiting BEVs (50,232 units, +112% YoY), but especially PHEVs, whose sales are jumping through the roof (+285%!), pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown towards parity between both technologies, as plugin hybrids had 48% of registrations last month, versus 47% in the YTD tally.

With fresh units coming from Fremont, the Model 3 won last month Best Seller title, its first since last April, Tesla is preparing a high tide in September, that added to the VW ID.3 official landing and a predictable strong month from the Renault Zoe, we should have all three top sellers next month hitting 5-digit scores...

We have one new face in the Top 5, with the Mercedes A250e joining the Best Sellers list, being one of the most interesting PHEVs around, while the Kia Niro EV ended the month in #6, thanks to 3,381 deliveries, its second record performance in a row!. 


Looking at June Top 5 Models:


#1 Tesla Model 3 – The sports sedan returned to form, by having 7,020 deliveries last month, allowing it to have its first monthly win since last April, which is a promising sign for the (super-)September high tide, so a 17,000 units seems like a realistic target. Regarding August, the Model 3 main markets were Germany (2,824 units), the UK (950) and The Netherlands (609).


#2 Renault Zoe – The 6,183 deliveries are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, and despite being down in August on the consistent 10,000-ish performances of previous months (August is French holiday season), expect it to go back at in (Super-)September. Last month, the main market this time was Germany (2,210 units), followed by France (1,618 units), Italy (509) and the UK (350). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership . 


#3 Ford Kuga PHEV - The Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), is doing wonders for Ford, as the carmaker finally found a plugin success story in Europe, in August the compact crossover scored 5,055 registrations, earning its 4th Best Selling PHEV monthly title in a row, making it the new reference in the plugin hybrid field. The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation were Germany (1,588 units), Denmark (1,509 units, Best Selling model in the overall market!) and the UK (350). With the Kuga PHEV usable electric range and competitive pricing, the Ford model is now one of the best value for money plugin hybrids out there. 


#4 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production constraints, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates for its small crossover, thanks to the Czech plant production, scoring 4,054 deliveries in August and allowing another Top 5 standing. After the waiting list being finally emptied (by September?), we will finally start to see the real demand level of the small crossover (3,000/month?). Back to August, Germany was by far the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with 1,397 deliveries, followed by France (420 units) and Norway (408). 


#Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the maker star player, with August registering a record 3,505 units, it's second record performance in a row, with the biggest market being its homeland Germany, with 1,939 registrations, followed by France, with 260 units, and the UK (253 units).



Novo Kuga é o primeiro plug-in da Ford | Auto Drive
Ford Kuga: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, there were two changes in the top places, with the Hyundai Kona EV jumping two spots, to #4, but the most significant change happened below it, with the Ford Kuga PHEV surpassing the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and becoming the new Best Selling plugin hybrid in Europe, if the compact SUV manages to keep the leadership until the end of the year, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

With these changes, the Top 5 is now 100% BEV, and with models from different classes, from the small Renault Zoe, to the compact VW e-Golf, the midsize Tesla Model 3 and the luxury Audi e-Tron, with the Hyundai Kona EV thrown in, for those that want something different. It's like these models are the BEV template for each of these categories (well, the e-Golf is on its last legs, but with its ID.3 successor now spreading across Europe, Volkswagen will continue to have the template for the compact EV in Europe for years to come).

Speaking of VW's new baby, in (Super-)September, the VW ID.3 is landing with a bang, with 20,000-plus 1st Edition deliveries, that added to some 11,000 Zoe's and 17,000 Model 3's, it should provide at least 48,000 registrations for September in just 3 models! Add a minimum of 80,000 units from the remaining market, and we should have some 130,000 units being delivered in one month, and some 12-13% market share! 

Back to August, the second half of the table had a few position changes, with the Volvo XC40 PHEV jumping two spots, to #13, while the small VW e-Up climbed to #16 and the Mercedes A250e joined the ranking, in #18, thanks to a record 3,505 units.

But the A250e wasn't the only Mercedes to shine, as the GLC300e scored a record 1,749 performance last month, while the E300e/de (1,254 units in August) and the C300e/de (1,441), jumped to #21 and #22, respectively, so we could have thee Mercedes in the table soon, and as if that wasn't enough, there were two other models from the Daimler stable to reach four-digit scores last month, with the Mercedes EQC registering 1,292 units, while the tiny Smart Fortwo EV scored 1,325 deliveries, thus making 6 models from the OEM with 1,000-plus scores!

And Mercedes is now starting to ramp up production of other models, as the CLA250e (565 units), B250e (315) have started to see their numbers rise and should hit significant volumes soon, while the GLA250e (60) and EQV (26) are waiting in line for their turn...The three pointed-star maker started late, but is electrifying its (long) lineup at breakneck speed...After all, Daimler is one of the worst CO2-emitting OEMs in Europe and the fines are heavy, so might as well go for plugins and comply with the rules, right?

Not to be outdone by its Stuttgart rival, BMW also pulled a few rabbits from the hat, and while it's not the model onslaught of Mercedes, the production ramp up of the Mini Cooper EV (1,709 units last month) and BMW X1 PHEV (1,545), added to the good result of the BMW X5 PHEV (1,334 units, its best score since January), have helped to counter balance the so-so results of the BMW i3 and 330e.

Still outside the Top 20, the PSA Group is also ramping up deliveries, with the small Opel Corsa EV hitting a record 1,487 deliveries, while the Peugeot 2008 EV crossover registered 1,331 units in August, with the French maker expecting this last model to be its Third Musketeer in the Top 20

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with 5 brands separated by 1%, with 9% share we have Volkswagen, BMW and Renault, while with 8%, we have Volvo and Tesla...And don't forget the rising (7%, up 1%) Mercedes, in 6th!






BEV D-Segment / Midsize category





Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and has even seen its sales increase 29% YoY last month, so it won't have significant competition in the near future, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,144 units last month) is present in a limited number of markets and will remain a niche player this year, with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021. Same story for the BMW iX3, with the first deliveries set for the summer of next year, do not expect volume numbers from it for a long, long time.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it should also outsell it.

As for the remaining podium, the Mercedes EQC has finally surpassed the Jaguar i-Pace, becoming the new runner-up, while the British sports SUV has seen its sales decline in August by 19% YoY, to just 588 units, which soon could place it under the firing range of the new Polestar 2, as the Sino-Swede is said to have its own Super-September edition (Around 1,500 deliveries) happening.



BEV E-Segment / Full size category





The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,047 units last month, representing a 141% sales increase YoY, and with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X, not only the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,183 units last month) will continue to extend its lead, but both Teslas will become easy prey for anyone (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...) that lands on this still rarefied market.

Just to have an idea, last month the Tesla Model S was the best selling of the flagship Teslas, by registering 109 units, down 82% YoY...

54 comments:

  1. It will be interesting so see if there really is a high tide of Model 3, as it usually is last monh of the quarter. Netherlands have sold around 400 Model 3 so far in September, less than August.

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    1. Im guessing (and it is only a guess) that Tesla will be shipping to the bigger markets now that demand is taking off (UK, Germany, France) so realtime numbers in places like Netherlands and Norway are less useful than they were.

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    2. Im guessing (and it is only a guess) that Tesla will be shipping to the bigger markets now that demand is taking off (UK, Germany, France) so realtime numbers in places like Netherlands and Norway are less useful than they were.

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    3. Current NL Sept numbers are almost head to head.
      Tesla M3: 568
      VW ID.3 First Edition: 433

      Norway is completely lost to VW ID.3: 1.530 M3: 917

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    4. As the Norwegian market is ten times smaller than the European, this implies that European ID3 sales will be more than 15.000 per month. This is an earthquake and VW will be the Nr1 EV car producer. September numbers will be extremely interesting.

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    5. So VW being 25% behind in one market is "head-to-head", but Tesla being 40% behind in another market is "completely lost"? Interesting assessment...

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    6. Volkswagen ID3 storming the charts in Norway. 3 times more sales today than Tesla Model 3 and 30 times !!! more than Model X and Model S. A flood of electric cars is coming to the markets.

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    7. So how does that compare to the Model 3 flood when it was first brought to Norway?...

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    8. @Clabb - I agree, as plugins go into the mainstream, it's the larger markets that gain relevance. I am particularly interested in the German market.

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  2. I don't think that model Y will sell better than model 3. And real competition will be id4/q4/enyaq.

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    1. Of course locally made Model Y will sell way better than imported Model 3...

      (And that's on top of the fact that a crossover is expected to get more sales in general than a pure sedan without a wagon variant...)

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    2. I was also expecting more of the Model Y, but with the cancellation of the SR version, the Model 3 will keep an important trump card: Price.

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    3. That's an interesting point. With Model Y reportedly not costing more to make than Model 3 (thanks to architectural advances), it was always an interesting question how they would price these long-term. I guess not having an entry variant of the Model Y is one way to do price differentiation...

      Having said that, this is Tesla: these kinds of proclamations are never set in stone. I'm pretty sure they will introduce an entry variant with a smaller battery at *some* point, once demand for other variants is exhausted. It just probably won't be the current Model 3 SR+ pack, but rather some new pack (using the new cell format?), with a somewhat larger capacity, in order to meet Elon's new standard for "acceptable" range...

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    4. probably big deal when your suv can't go 200 miles in winter because battery. there might be something to elon's performance claims. suv that can't winter might be a bad stain to have on your brand. and also, model s - x have those periodic range upgrade. perhaps model Y also. then the "long range" rwd will become the cheap one.

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    5. Yeah, I guess my wording was a bit dismissive... I'm sure it's not just Elon's whim, but in fact there are good reasons. While no doubt many people would be fine with the shorter range (see e-tron doing well enough in frosty Norway), we need to keep in mind that the smaller battery would save less then $3000 in costs. (Even less if we consider increased logistics costs for dealing with more different variants...) If the price is lowered accordingly, while offering considerably less range, that would make it a significantly less attractive offer for most buyers, i.e. it would barely sell, not making it worth the effort.

      An alternative option would be to lower the price more, and maintain average margins by raising prices on the longer range variants instead -- but that would make the more desirable variants less affordable, and thus in turn not necessarily improve overall ability to take market share from combustion cars...

      Optimal marketing is way more complex than it might seem.

      (Essentially same reason why the standard range Model S and X were cancelled...)

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  3. 1.000.000 E-Cars should be possible in 2020.

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    1. Another 390.000 sales in 4 months is within reach. Its 1.100.000 sales that will be a question. Hope the ID.3 combined with increased sales of Model 3 in super sep and hyper dec contributes to that mark.

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    2. While Model 3 will no doubt accelerate at the end of the current quarter and especially the next one, this won't move the needle all that much compared to over a million total EV sales this year...

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  4. "the Mercedes EQC has finally surpassed the Jaguar i-Pace"

    The table currently shows the Mercedes EQC with 5528 registrations, and the i-Pace below it with 5846?

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  5. Jose please for a search could you tell me how many skoda citigo and seat MII Jan-Aug?

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  6. 97.482 sales in low sales august is great. Impressive is Model 3 selling 7.020 to gain #1 share.
    Unless Tesla sells in record # in super sep and hyper dec, it may end up #2 this year in Europe.
    But VW ID.3 will make it a 3-way fight.

    Great that Kuga is leading PHEV charge has overtaken Outlander to move to #6. Getting into #5 next month could be a possibility. But Ford selling < 100 Kuga/Escape PHEV in USA is a tragedy. Today Fords upcoming CEO claimed that Ford is the only American automaker working to reduce emissions. There is a limit to how much someone can bluff.

    How much the ID.3 will contribute to BEV share is a big ?.
    How come the PHEV Mercedes A250e has the e suffix which is typically meant for BEVs. Is MB group trying to create confusion. In USA, Chrysler Pacifica Plugin is called as Hybrid. Their former CEO said Americans dont know the term plugin/PHEV. And the current CEO seems to respect that sentiment.

    Model Y being a crossover will have its own market and will not cannibalise Model 3. Reason for sales decline of Model S is its in 9th year and people dont want to buy such a older model despite having 640 km range. Also the sedan sales are decreasing rapidly.

    Polestar 2 is only a compliance car with Volvo giving all false info on emissions reductions of BEVs.
    Any clue on BMW i3 battery size increase.

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    1. The Mercedes naming strategy is "EQx" for the BEVs, and "XXXXe" for plugin hybrids, confusing, i know, but then again, Mercedes was always a letter soup...

      Polestar 2 is a first move into the market, still based in Volvo models, the real start will be with the following models, namely the production version of the Precept concept.

      BMW i3: Late 2020, early 2021?

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    2. If Tesla ramps European deliveries significantly in Q4 (like they did last year), they could very well reach close to 90,000 Model 3. With the drop in August, it doesn't seem like Renault can keep up a steady 10,000 Zoe deliveries per month -- so while it's certainly not impossible for them to retain the throne, it should be pretty tough.

      As for ID.3, I don't think it realistic they could still reach these sorts of numbers this year... A purported leak a few months back claimed they had to lower their internal expectations from 100,000 to 70,000 IIRC, or something along these lines.

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    3. VW ID3 sales already far ahead Tesla in Norway during September. Looks like VW is the new Nr1.

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    4. I believe the Renault Zoe will continue with 10.000-ish performances, August is always the weakest month in France, so i guess the race is still undecided between both.

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    5. heinrich please consider vw id3 sales against tesla sales at the same time in its availability. i don't care to but let's just say we'll see where the total is next year.

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    6. It will become even more interesting once Tesla starts local production of Model 3 in Europe, presumably some time in 2022...

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  7. ID3 had only 2 weeks and deliveries started slowly. Most 1st editions will be delivered in Oktober.

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  8. "which is a promising sign for the (super-)September high tide, so a 17,000 units seems like a realistic target"

    that does not seem realistic to me. At the same time (25.09.2019) Tesla had already sold more than 6300 Model 3 in NL+NO+SP, mainly in the Netherlands because subsidies have been phased out there. Currently they are at 1450 Model 3. I don't expect that they will be able to compensate this by selling more cars in other markets in Europe. Maybe the high subsidies in germany help balance it out a bit, but I would rather expect 11-12K. Overall Model 3 sales decreased by 10% so far (Europe Aug19 vs Aug20).

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    1. Seven Tesla carriers arrived in Europe this quarter. Going by historic precedent, that should be good for some 25,000 Model 3 -- and there is talk that they are all sold. (Delivery date estimates for new orders seem to confirm this.) This is also confirmed by Troy's generally pretty accurate estimates.

      So 17,000 for September, or something in that ballpark at least, indeed seems very realistic. It will be interesting to see where they all ended up :-)

      (My guess would be that UK makes up for much of the decrease in NO and NL, as it did throughout the year thus far...)

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  9. How many EQCs were sold in 2019 and 2020 (total)?

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    1. numbers in 2019, up until August, were symbolic, the ramp up only started to take form last September.

      But even the total 2019 number (little over 1,000 units) is nothing compared to this year so far.

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  10. Any idea about Citroen Ami sales.

    europe and china has same level of sales, but china does it with very little subsidies and many more BEVs. their formula to stick with LFP batteries with smaller affordable cars seems to play the trick.
    many BEVs in china are in $12K - $16K range. europe should also start working on affordable LFP batteries. in USA, PEV sales are stuck in 30K range, may be it rises in quarter end months.

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    1. Still no idea on Ami sales, sorry.

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    2. Chinese subsidies are close to $4,000 for cars with >400 km NEDC range (most of them), plus the ban on additional local subsidies has been lifted again, plus a 10% sales tax is waived... All in all, that's still among the highest incentives in the world. (Aside from outliers like Norway or the Netherlands.)

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    3. As for LFP batteries, they don't actually make that much of a difference: going by a purported leak, less than $1500 cost difference for the Chinese Model 3 SR+ for example. And it's even less for smaller cars.

      Note that most Chinese makers only recently started re-introducing LFP, after they pretty much all moved over to nickel-based chemistries due to policy changes a few years back...

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  11. ID 3 Pro registrations so far in Norway in September (https://elbilstatistikk.no/) at 1530 nearly hundred percent higher than September Tesla Model 3 sales of just 912. Model X inferior at just 157 sales in September. Looks like a new star is born.

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    1. Nearly 100%? LOL... Great maths skills.

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    2. but how this compares to when tesla model 3 was new in norway? model x is the price of 3 or 4 id3s put together. so 700+912 seems like more money than id3 brings.

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  12. Is there a country list? I'd like to know if it's the EU plus UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The Model 3 currently is the 4th-best selling car overall in the latter for Jan-Aug '20.

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    1. It's more than that, it includes every country in Europe, excluding Russia (and this just because it's not easy to get data from Russia).

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  13. Norwegian VW ID3 sales currently at 1529 in September - twenty fold higher than Model S sales!!!!!

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    1. Could it be because Model S is 7 years old and ID.3 is literally new? Wait 7 years and see if any new ID.3 are being sold.

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    2. Now do Golf vs. Panamera...

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  14. Amazing. From 141 car sales in Norway today, 49 are VW ID3 cars, which gives over 30% market share. This implies 30.000 VW ID3 sold in Europe per month and by far the leader in Europe. September sales will be hyper interesting. Could be really a sea change for electric cars.

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  15. VW ID3 going mad today in Norway at 92 versus just 25 for Model 3 and only 2 for Model X. 100 cars per day in Norway imply at least 1000 cars per day in Europe.

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  16. Stunning success for the VW ID 3 in Norway. 126 car sales in one day imply 30.000 cars sold per month and over 300.000 per year sold in Europe alone.

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    1. Interesting. So what did it "imply" when Tesla delivered >500 Model 3 one day?...

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    2. Not to speak about almost 1.000 Model 3 in one day in Netherlands in last December...

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  17. Some blogger in this forum compared Model S with VW ID.3

    Model S beat many fast expensive cars with 12 cylinder engines in many races.
    1st electric car in 5+2 seater style with plenty of trunk/frunk space.
    Came with 3 battery options to cater to different users.
    Probably the 1st electric car that reached 500.000 km because of 85 KWh battery.
    Faced criticism on daily basis from big oil and legacy automakers and still sold.
    Its deliveries began in 2012-06, that means it is in its 9th year.
    Model S lost sales because of trend towards crossovers especially in big luxury segment.
    Still soldiering on while its competitors like Cadillac CT6, Lincoln Continental, Acural RLX, Infiniti Q70 have gone under the soil. Check the sales of similar sized sedan, they are all going down.

    VW and other automakers on the other hand got egg on their face because of dieselgate and paid hefty fines in many markets.

    VW should in reality should be crying to sell every ID.3 because they loved the smell of diesel. Give them 1 chance and they will convert the entire BEVs based on MEB architecture to diesel.

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    1. no they won't. the management has seen how much easier it is to build electric, they will use this against the workers. diesel is dead, they all know it. they've all sat in taychan to know it's better than any gasser. they will electric as soon as union and depreciation let them.

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  18. For those of you who are interested in USA sales stats.
    1,6 million plugins were sold so far, out of which
    BEV: 1.0 million
    PHV: 0.6 million (This is the reason I like PHV for plugin hybrid since a uniform 3 character code aligns it).
    Earlier it was 1:1, since Model 3 came on the scene, BEVs took off while the plugin hybrids went down especially with closure of Volt, CMax and recently Fusion plugin. Dont look at Kuga plugin, they just have 26 units for sale, even RAV4 plugin sucks.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/29/total-plug-in-vehicle-sales-in-united-states-reach-1-6-million-units/

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  19. What a wonderful news, ID.3 must be cannibalizing Golf.
    So diesel and even petrol are crushed. We have to tell norweign refineries to produce less diesel and break that hydrocarbon chain to lighter products like ethane, propane, butane which can be used at least for plastics production.
    Any what happened to Toyota (no need to charge) hybrids, are they selling?.
    I think ID.3 and the upcoming ID.4 will leave even the plugin hybrids in the dust.

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