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| BYD "Model X": The "Tang" SUV |
Back To Earth Edition
After an amazing September, where the numbers reached unheard heights (11.000 units), the Chinese EV market is back to more normal numbers, with close to 7.000 units, which still the second best selling month ever, pulling the EV Share yet again to 0,37%.
These are impressive numbers, with the BYD Qin beating its sales record for
The third best selling model in October was the Zotye E20, once again above the 1.000 mark, with 1.021 sales and looking to catch the YTD Third Spot this year.
Looking at Tesla the number estimated is more a Leap of Faith than a true estimate, there's no way of knowing if America's favourite brand has shifted away from the average 500 units, but considering waning sales in Europe and the average numbers in North America, and also reports that Tesla has some 3.000 units in transit(!), i believe sales for Tesla in Asia will surge until the end of the year, so it wouldn't be a surprise if sales started to rise in China.
A final reference to BAIC, with a record 696 sales last month, it looks that the E150 EV is finally delivering to a level of its promises. It needs too, now that BMW, Volkswagen and others are now seriously looking to sell EV's in China.
| Pl | China | Oct | YTD | % | '13Pl |
| 2 | BYD Qin | 1.702 | 11.175 | 23 | 9 |
| 3 4 5 6 7 | Chery QQ3 EV e) Zotye E20 Tesla Model S e) BYD e6 BAIC E150 EV Others | 500 1.021 800 199 696 152 | 6.316 5.463 3.649 2.203 1.579 1.343 | 13 11 7 4 3 3 | 1 N/A N/A 3 5 |
| TOTAL | 6.770 | 49.263 | 100 |
e) Estimate
Source: http://www.chooseauto.com.cn/
America's Favorite EV is ... The Nissan Leaf. Based on unit sales. Favorite EV based on pumped stock valuation? Tesla.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, it is reported that a variety of US-based sales sites got RWD inventory cars during October. I doubt all those 3000 cars were in transit on boats. Tesla won't grow on orders alone. They need impulse-buyers to help.
ReplyDeleteJose,
DeleteThere is no basis for your 800 estimate for Tesla in China for October. Do you have at least the import number for Oct? Variety of sources point to a much smaller actual sales numbers in China for Tesla.
If sales aren't jumping in China and elsewhere in Asia, then something strange is happening to Tesla sales across the Globe, North America sales are average, Europe sales are dowm...Where are all those cars going?
ReplyDeleteMaybe they are going to Japan after they released now the chademo adapter for Japan?
DeleteIIRC somewhere read that retooling took close to month instead of planned 2 weeks, so to delivery Q3 report, most spetember build cars were sold in America, and most october build cars were in transit
DeleteTesla exited Q2 with an overproduction of 2200 cars when you combine Q1 and Q2 together ... Add produced minus sales for those two quarters. They should have sold more in Q3. They sold 585 less than produced. It looks like they had a large growing inventory of $250 million in finished goods after Q2 and really needed to slow things down somewhat without alarming the stockholders.
DeleteHi Jose,
ReplyDeleteHere the official numbers for the 9 first month of 2014. http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20141030/1305136436.html
You seem to overestimate a little the market, but the official sales and product numbers are still close to yours.
It is impressive! Bravo!
Jose, your YTD data around Kandi cannot be correct. Kandi has reported Q3 results on 11/10/2014 and their report (press release, and as filed with the US SEC) shows the company only supplied to 1,950 EV units for that entire quarter. Your source for month of September units for Kandi of 6,771 seems like it maybe the bad input that is throwing your analysis off and leading to significant overstatements of Kandi's place in this market.
ReplyDelete