USA December 2016

Tesla Fest in a perfect month

Over 24.000 new EV's were registered in the USA last month, blasting the previous record of 17.016 units of last September into hyper-space, with YoY sales up a Chinese-like 81%(!), with the last month market share finally north of 1%, pulling the YTD EV Share to a record 0.91%, with the final 2016 number ending close to 160.000 units, a 37% increase over 2015.

Looking into 2017, i would say that some 230.000 units will not only be possible, but i believe it is a conservative forecast...

With Tesla shattering records, the 5.550 Model S deliveries established a new monthly record for a single model, while the 9.575 Teslas did the same for brands, and doing a 1-2 leadership in December, it would be enough for a great sales month, but there were other record performances to make an almost perfect sales month:

- The Chevrolet Volt did an all-time best of 3.691 units, this record result was in some measure helped by the new Bolt, with many prospective of the new electric car preferring to grab a new EV immediately (Federal credit...) than to wait a few months in the queue for the all-electric Chevy, that may or may not have fiscal incentive, as it is rumoured the incoming President could cancel it for 2017.

- Other models helping this perfect storm of record results were the Audi A3 e-Tron, with an all-time best of 589 units, the Ford C-Max Energi (!) with a record 1.289 units, while several less popular models also had did personal best scores, like the BMW 330e (240 units), Hyundai Sonata Plug-In (325), Kia Soul EV (197) and Mercedes GLE550e (83). All in all, December was a record month for nine(!) models, with only one model (Ford Fusion Energi), disappointing in December (1.099 units, worst result in 10 months).

- The Toyota Prius Prime had its first full sales month, with 1.641 units, Toyota's best result since May '14, the following months will see the Japanese brand sell as much as it can make, so if Toyota is serious with this car, and i believe it is, the competitively-priced  Prime will be a strong contender for the 2017 Best Seller title.

- We had three additional models landing in December, with the all-important Chevrolet Bolt debuting with 579 units, not a record-breaking performance, but important nonetheless, what was said about the Prius Prime can also be applied here, it's all up to Chevrolet to determine the success of this car, as demand will be no problem. 

- The other two models landing in December were the long-promised Mercedes C350e, with a best-in-class first month of 171 units, promising good things for 2017, while the remaining new car was the BMW 740e, landing with 23 units.

Looking at the 2016 ranking, besides the expected win of the Tesla Model S (Second in a row), with over 29.000 units (A 23% increase YoY) and the runner-up status of the Chevrolet Volt (24.739 units, a new record), the Third Spot had a last minute change, with the Tesla Model X replacing the Ford Fusion Energi as Bronze Medalist, making two Teslas in the podium.

On the flip side for Ford, the C-Max Energi climbed one position to #6 in December, with the Hyundai Sonata PHEV also climbing one position to #12. 

In the brands ranking, Tesla (30%, up 2%) won its fourth Manufacturers trophy (2016, '15, '09 and '08), while the three times winner (2010, '12 and '13) Chevrolet ended in Second with 18% share, ahead of the Third Placed Ford (16%, down 1%). 

The BEV/PHEV breakdown ended with all-electrics winning by 54/46, but plug-in hybrids recovered ground, having increased 7% share regarding 2015 (39%).

Final mention for Fuel Cells, in their Year One in the USA, there were 1.074 units registered in 2016, 99% of them being Toyota Mirai, with this kind of technology owning 0.01% of the auto market. With the Honda Clarity landing in 2017, it is time for Fuel Cells to grow exponentially and survive, or else they will be trounced by plug-ins.

Pl	USA	Dec.	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	5.550	29.121	18
2	Chevrolet Volt	3.691	24.739	16
3	Tesla Model X e)	4.025	17.629	11
4	Ford Fusion Energi	1.099	15.938	10
5	Nissan Leaf	1.899	14.006	9
6	Ford C-Max Energi	1.289	7.957	5
7	BMW i3	791	7.625	5
8	BMW X5 40e	569	5.995	4
9	Fiat 500e	650	5.330	3
10	Audi A3 e-Tron	589	4.280	3
11	Volkswagen e-Golf	443	3.937	2
12 13 14 15 16	Hyundai Sonata PHEV Chevrolet Spark EV Toyota Prius Prime Por. Cayenne PHEV Volvo XC90 T8	325 17 1.641 152 204	3.095 3.035 2.422 2.111 2.015	2 2 2 1 1
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33	Kia Soul EV BMW i8 Ford Focus Electric BMW 330e Smart Fortwo ED Mercedes B250e Chevrolet Bolt Mercedes S550e Cadillac ELR Por. Panamera PHEV Mercedes GLE550e Bolloré Blue Car Mercedes C350e Mitsubishi I-Miev Toyota Prius Plug-In BMW 740e Porsche 918	197 133 101 240 40 54 579 71 3 3 83 171 3 23	1.728 1.594 901 870 657 632 579 555 534 393 231 210 171 94 52 23 1	1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	24.635	158.455	100

 e) Estimate

Source: Inside EV's; Good Car Bad Car

Tesla Model S vs The Others

Pl	Model	Dec. 2016
1	Tesla Model S	5.550
2	Mercedes E & CLS	4.851
3	BMW 5-Series	2.115
4	Cadillac CTS	1.697
5	Audi A6	1.494

  

Even with Mercedes combining sales of the E-Class with the CLS, the Model S became the Best Selling model of its class in December!

"Yeah, but December would always be a peak for the Model S, what about the yearly performance?" - You might ask. 

Looking at it that way, the Model S would be Third, with 29k units, far from the 51k of the Mercedes duo, but not that far from the 32k of the Second Placed BMW 5-Series.

Add that to the 23% growth rate of the Tesla model, the only to actually increase deliveries, when their all competitors lost sales (-9% for the Mercedes duo, -27% for the 5-Series, -18% for the A6 and -18% for the Cadillac) and you have great 2017 prospects for the Californian (33k and Second Place for this year?) 


One thing is certain: Tesla has shown how to beat the German Triad: Offer a disruptive product and customers will follow. 

To Jaguar Land Rover, Lexus, etc: The Holy Graal you had been searching for years was discovered by a start-up company, now get down from your high horses and start doing your own thing!  

Tesla Model X vs The Others

Pl	Model	Dec. 2016
1	BMW X5	6.245
2	Mercedes GLE	5.574
3	Tesla Model X	4.025
4	Volvo XC90	3.308
5	Audi Q7	3.275

The Model X has a tougher job than the Model S, but with production in full swing, in December the Model X reached Third Place with a record 4k deliveries, now the question is: "Can it increase to 5-6.000 units and fight for the leadership?"

Mmmm...Good question. From now on, i don't think there will be issues on the production side, as for demand...I have my doubts, the US are an SUV-loving market, but the Model X is not a home run product like the Model S, so it remains to be seen if there is sufficient demand for it.