Europe October 2017

VW e-Golf Shines

The European passenger plug-in market seems to have reached a turning point, with October growing 56% regarding the same period last year, to over 27.000 units. This is the fifth time in the last six months where we see 50%-plus growth rates.

Looking at the broader picture of the Automotive market in Europe, we are also watching some seismic changes, with diesel-powered cars dropping 10% YoY in October, to 41% share, while regular gasoline cars are up to 51% and Alternative Fueled cars (PEVs, HEVs, CNG, etc) are up to 6% share.

If we look only at PEV share, October hit 2.1% share, keeping the year-to-date share at a record 1.8%.

October saw a close race between the Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf, decided in the last minute by photo-finish, with the Renault Zoe winning by just 46 units, while the VW e-Golf (2.159 units) performed its third personal best score in a row.

Interestingly, the two Best Selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the Top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers, more risk-averse, join the EV market.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Renault Zoe – Despite growing 52% YoY, the October performance of the French hatchback was a bit disappointing, scoring 2.205 units, losing the Untouchable status it had in the first half of the year. Considering there is still a waiting list to be filled, Renault could increase production at their Flins factory without major demand problems. Are production constraints to blame? As for market individual performances, despite underperforming at its home market (775 units, down 4%), it broke all records in Spain (554 deliveries), thanks to a car-sharing deal, collecting also high numbers in countries like Germany (243 units), and Sweden (119 deliveries, being the third straight month of record deliveries).    

#2 Volkswagen e-Golf – The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a massive spike in demand, with record breaking performances almost every month, pulling registrations up to 2.159 deliveries last month. With a months-long waiting list, Volkswagen has enough room to continue improving results, and we might even see it win the Best Seller trophy soon. Will it be in November? Looking at its largest markets, Norway is still the backbone of demand, with a record 1.168 units being delivered there, but with Germany (389), Netherlands (184 units, new personal best) and Austria (78 registrations), and other markets helping along, the e-Golf is now a more spread out vehicle and not just a “Norway thing”. With the sales record (11.170 sales, in 2015) set to be broken in November, and Volkswagen announcing production increases to meet demand, expect 2018 to build on this year success. Oh, the wonders of increased range…

#3 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch was down 4% in October, to 1.687 units, with this drop being explained by the current facelift change. With BEVs now representing 74% of all sales, we are very far from the mix of April 2016, when the BEV version represented only 48% of sales. Looking at individual countries, no big surprises, with Norway registering 417 units (All BEV), and Germany scoring 332 registrations. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to pick up, as BMW starts to deliver their new, facelifted units.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – A sure value, the Japanese SUV has seen its sales go up 6% YoY, to 1.494 registrations, with Mitsubishi being one of the few Top OEMs to have its sales limited by demand and not production. As such, Mitsubishi is actively promoting its plug-in model, highlighting its unique mix of space, AWD and electric range (50 kms NEDC), with competitive prices (Read “deep discounts”) as the icing on the cake. This makes him popular in markets like in the UK, Norway, Sweden or Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.

#5 Volkswagen Passat GTE – Back at the Top 5, VW’s favorite PHEV company-car recorded 1.244 units last month. The largest markets for the Passat GTE were Sweden (535 units), Germany (235) and Norway (207). With the right mix of space, electric range and a familiar badge, expect this model to continue to be a regular here.

StreetScooter Work

YTD Ranking – Volkswagen e-Golf climbs to #8, StreetScooter joins Top 20

October didn’t brought many changes to the YTD ranking, with the Renault Zoe remaining stable in the lead, and the Second Placed BMW i3 distancing itself from the Nissan Leaf, now entering in “sunset mode”.

With the Outlander PHEV less than 500 units behind, we might even see Mitsubishi’s SUV drop the Leaf to Fourth before December.

The first position change was in the Eighth Position, with the VW e-Golf displacing the Tesla Model X, with the ever improving German BEV now aiming for the Fifth position by year end, and maybe a podium place next year.

In the second half of the Top 20, we see the Golf GTE climb to #13 and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric reach #18.

But the real news is the Streetscooter Work delivery van joining the Top 20, having registered 910 units last month, and despite being only sold in just two markets (Germany and the Netherlands), it is already the Best Selling model in its category.

Is the DHL-owned company starting to be disruptive in the delivery van class?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated at the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%) in Second Place, while a recovery-mode Volkswagen (13%) is closing in, having recovered 1200 units in October and now being only some 800 units behind the French manufacturer.

Will we see VW reach Silver next month?

Outside the podium, Tesla (9%) is running ahead of Nissan and Mercedes, both with 8% share.

Pl	Europe	October	YTD	%
1	Renault Zoe	2205	26143	11
2	BMW i3	1687	16567	7
3	Nissan Leaf	1075	15914	7
4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1494	15477	6
5	Tesla Model S	773	11365	5
6	VW Passat GTE	1244	10787	4
7	Mercedes GLC350e	1056	10332	4
8	VW e-Golf	2159	10091	4
9	Tesla Model X	616	9392	4
10	BMW 225xe Act. Tourer	939	8763	4
11	BMW 330e	808	8682	4
12	Audi A3 e-Tron	587	7102	3
13	VW Golf GTE	947	6550	3
14	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV	780	6543	3
15	Mercedes C350e	436	5679	2
16	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	565	4924	2
17	BMW X5 40e	435	4913	2
18	Kia Soul EV	583	4431	2
19	BMW 530e	697	4248	2
20	StreetScooter Work	910	3633	1
	Others	7836	50990	20
	TOTAL	27832	242526	100