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| Roewe i6 PHEV: Handsome thing, isn't it? |
The Chinese PEV market lifted off the accelerator, with
some 78,000 units registered in June, up only
77%, this slowdown from the three-digit growth rates of previous months is
explained by the fact that in June, New
Energy subsidies were slashed to vehicles with range lower to 150 kms,
so most small City EVs stopped being sold, draining a significant percentage of
sales.
Consequently, the PEV share dropped from the record 5%
in May, to 3.1% PEV in June, pulling the 2018 share to 3%, well above the 2.1%
of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up as the year advances, the 2018 PEV
share should end North of the 3% 4% threshold (5%?), with December
possibly reaching 7%.
Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented over 50% of
all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase
during 2018.
With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is
more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact
that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked
seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near
future, foreign brands are putting an effort, reaching 7% share. Of this
(small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers
sharing the final 2%.
In June, besides the disappearance of most small EVs, several
larger models hit record numbers, while the Roewe brand had a coming of age,
hitting for the first time a five-digit performance, and even managing to snoop
around the leadership race between BAIC and the leader BYD.
Here’s June
Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:
#1 – BAIC EX-Series: BAIC’s electric compact Crossover
landed two years ago, but somehow, it has been overshadowed by the remaining
lineup, a strange event, considering that it sits on one of the hottest
segments around. Nevertheless, with the EC-Series offline, waiting for the new,
longer ranger version, the EX-Series time has come and thanks to a facelift and
revised specs (415 kms/260 mi NEDC range) and pricing ($28,500, before
subsidies) in 2018, Beijing Auto’s Ugly
Duckling is finally spreading its wings, having registered a record 5,708 units and becoming June’s Best
Seller, a first for the Crossover. With BAIC’s little genius (EC-Series) injured, it’s time for other team members
to shine, like the EX-Series.
#2 – Roewe Ei5 EV: In only its fourth month on the market, the Roewe compact wagon is already showing up on the Podium, thanks to a record 4,661 deliveries. It seems the Shanghai automaker struck gold with this original offer, not only the wagon body is unusual in China but, for the time being at least, it’s a unique design, with no ICE counterpart and, in true Roewe fashion, it is one of the most solid designs, inside and out, coming from a Chinese OEM. If only the specs (35kWh battery, 301 kms/188 mi range NEDC, 116 hp motor), were a tad better…Especially considering the price ($33,200 before subsidies).
#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: With the second-generation Qin
just a couple months from landing, the first generation had another
surprisingly good performance in June, with 4,606 units (new record), being BYD’s “Model 3” 10th consecutive “3-4 thousand units/month” result (Talk
about consistency!). Sales are still going strong for BYD’s sports-sedan, and
should continue in the 4,000-something level, at least until the new one
arrives. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should be the norm,
becoming the Best Selling BYD.
#4 – Chery
eQ: Chery was
one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title
three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker
is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material)
successor to the QQ3, having registered 4,434 units in June (year best), allowing it to collect a Top
5 position last month. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000
before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22kWh battery providing
just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of
the urban jungle.
#5 – BYD e5: The automaker Plain Jane sedan, and a favorite among taxi-drivers, the
no-frills sedan registered 4,047 units
in June, up 26% YoY. This second youth is due to a facelift this year and, most
importantly, a larger battery, allowing it to improve specs (61 kWh, 400 kms
range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600), the
model is a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, as the 81,000 units sold so
far mean that it is the brand third bestselling PEV, behind the Qin and Tang
models.
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| BYD Yuan EV: A future Best Seller? |
2018 ranking
There
weren’t many changes on the top positions, in fact we have to go down to #6, to
see a position change, with the Roewe i6 PHEV sedan (4,028 units, new personal record)
climbing one position, while the JMC E200, one of the few small EVs to escape
the subsidies cut, was up to #7, thanks to a record 3,638 units.
But the
Climbers of the Month were the BAIC EX-Series jumping to #10, up from #15,
thanks to a record 5,708 deliveries, a new second consecutive record for the
Crossover nameplate, while the Roewe Ei5 EV wagon was up 4 positions, to #14,
thanks to a record 4,661 units, expect both models to continue climbing
positions in the next couple of months, with the Beijing Crossover possibly
reaching #7, while the Shanghai Wagon might reach the Top 10 soon.
Speaking of
records, it is expected that the Tesla Model X had reached a new all-time
record for an imported vehicle in June, with some 2,350 deliveries, allowing it
to keep a Top 20 position.
Finally, the
BAIC EU-Series rejoined the Top 20, in #16, and thanks to a recent facelift and
improved specs, the sedan should climb a few more positions in the coming
months.
Looking at
the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%, up 1%) recovered ground, thanks to the
Yuan BEV landing, while the runner-up BAIC (16%, down 1%), lost share due to
the EC-Series sales dip, with the EX & EU-Series unable to fully compensate
this sales drop.
In Third
Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (12%, up 1%) holds the last place of the
podium, with a significant advantage over the new #4, Chery (6% share), and
with BAIC now only 4% above it, the SAIC brand is now going after the Silver medal.
Looking at
the SAIC Group (Roewe + MG + Maxus + Baojun) as one entity, it already has 16%
of the Chinese plug-in market, so it won’t be surprising to see it as the #1
OEM in this market soon.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteLook at the Chery eQ. It's listed twice in the top-20 (at position 11 and at position 18).
That must be a mistake.
True, it's the eQ and eQ1, will change it.
DeleteI keep nitpicking.
DeleteLine 18 7081(total) + line 11 4434(month) = line 11 11515(total).
Me thinks one more correction is in order.
Cherry eQ both in position 11 and 18.
ReplyDeleteAnd did I say that I love the color blue?
Blue it's favorite color too :D
DeleteIt doesn't seem very likely that any Plug-In EV model will reach the 100,000 sales Milestone in 2018.
ReplyDeleteI was expecting the EC-Series to get there, but with this sales stoppage, i guess the Tesla Model 3 will be the only one to surpass the 100k this year.
ReplyDeleteWell, in the remaining second half of 2018 the Nissan Leaf might sell in pretty good numbers. Specially in Europe, because there will be no Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe before 2019. The question is if Nissan can produce enough Nissan Leafs in 2018 to satisfy demand in Europe.
DeleteBesides in Europe, many thousands Nissan Leafs will also be sold in the US, Japan and a few other countries. All in all Nissan could reach the 100,000 global sales milestone with the Nissan Leaf in 2018 as well.
So, the Tesla Model 3 just might not be the only Plug-In EV model that will reach the 100,000 global sales milestone in 2018. But the Tesla Model 3 will probably take the global sales crown in 2018 (and in 2019, and in 2020).
We will see it in the coming months.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteThere are 4 PHEV models in the top 20 (2 from BYD, 2 from SAIC Roewe).
What is the likelihood of sales success for these 4 PHEV models in the remaining second half of 2018, and also further on in 2019?
The Chinese government incentives prioritize BEV models instead of PHEV models. At least that is what is the case, as I understand it.
Yes, but there is a large number of private buyers that prefer PHEVs, as they need the long-travel abilities that PHEVs offer.
DeleteBYD has a 19% marketshare, and thats almost 71,000 Plug-In EV sales in the first half of 2018.
ReplyDeleteBYD has a target of 200,000 Plug-In EV sales in 2018.
BYD should be able to achieve that target in 2018.
A lot will depend on the demand for the newly released BYD Yuan EV.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteAre there any other Plug-In EV models (besides the three EC / EX / EU) under the BAIC brand name that have not managed enough sales numbers in 2018 (yet) to be in the top 20 list?
They have more models (E-Series, EH-Series, Arcfox Lite), but they are being sold in low numbers, so i guess BAICs strategy is largely based on the three you mentioned.
DeleteHow is Arcfox Lite?
Deletenot good, selling in the low hundreds per month.
DeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteIn order to get to an annual total of 1 million Plug-In EV sales in China in 2018, the monthly sales numbers in the second half of 2018 will have to be significantly better than those in the first half of 2018. On average they will have to be higher than 100,000 every month.
Is there any indication that points to such results in the second half of 2018?
Traditionally, the second half of the year is the best selling one, so expect a continued growth.
DeleteBut there's still no certainty that it will reach one million.
The SAIC Baojun E200 has been unveiled.
ReplyDelete19.2 kWh battery pack
200 km Range (NEDC?)
Price €11,900.-
Two seats
percentage is relative metric cannot signify “slow-down”. from 1 to 10 is 1000%, from 10. to 30 is just 300%. for slow-down you have to measure percentage of slope change
ReplyDeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteThere are many Chinese car manufacturers.
How are all those Chinese car manufacturers going to comply with the 10% Quota in 2019?
Specially those Chinese car manufacturers which do not have any Plug-In EV model on offer yet.
Well, doing the same as most foreign OEMs lagging behind do: Sticking their logos on EVs from other brands, like Mitsubishi is already doing with their Quishi, a rebranded GAC model.
Delete