Friday, July 20, 2018

China June 2018

Resultado de imagem para Roewe Ei6
Roewe i6 PHEV: Handsome thing, isn't it?

SAIC (Roewe) goes after BAIC & BYD

The Chinese PEV market lifted off the accelerator, with some 78,000 units registered in June, up only 77%, this slowdown from the three-digit growth rates of previous months is explained by the fact that in June, New Energy subsidies were slashed to vehicles with range lower to 150 kms, so most small City EVs stopped being sold, draining a significant percentage of sales.

Consequently, the PEV share dropped from the record 5% in May, to 3.1% PEV in June, pulling the 2018 share to 3%, well above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3% 4% threshold (5%?), with December possibly reaching 7%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented over 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are putting an effort, reaching 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In June, besides the disappearance of most small EVs, several larger models hit record numbers, while the Roewe brand had a coming of age, hitting for the first time a five-digit performance, and even managing to snoop around the leadership race between BAIC and the leader BYD. 

Here’s June Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


Resultado de imagem para white BAIC EX 400 EV
#1 – BAIC EX-Series: BAIC’s electric compact Crossover landed two years ago, but somehow, it has been overshadowed by the remaining lineup, a strange event, considering that it sits on one of the hottest segments around. Nevertheless, with the EC-Series offline, waiting for the new, longer ranger version, the EX-Series time has come and thanks to a facelift and revised specs (415 kms/260 mi NEDC range) and pricing ($28,500, before subsidies) in 2018, Beijing Auto’s Ugly Duckling is finally spreading its wings, having registered a record 5,708 units and becoming June’s Best Seller, a first for the Crossover. With BAIC’s little genius (EC-Series) injured, it’s time for other team members to shine, like the EX-Series.

Resultado de imagem para white Roewe Ei5


#2 – Roewe Ei5 EV: In only its fourth month on the market, the Roewe compact wagon is already showing up on the Podium, thanks to a record 4,661 deliveries. It seems the Shanghai automaker struck gold with this original offer, not only the wagon body is unusual in China but, for the time being at least, it’s a unique design, with no ICE counterpart and, in true Roewe fashion, it is one of the most solid designs, inside and out, coming from a Chinese OEM. If only the specs (35kWh battery, 301 kms/188 mi range NEDC, 116 hp motor), were a tad better…Especially considering the price ($33,200 before subsidies).


Resultado de imagem para white BYD Qin

#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: With the second-generation Qin just a couple months from landing, the first generation had another surprisingly good performance in June, with 4,606 units (new record), being BYD’s “Model 3” 10th consecutive “3-4 thousand units/month” result (Talk about consistency!). Sales are still going strong for BYD’s sports-sedan, and should continue in the 4,000-something level, at least until the new one arrives. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should be the norm, becoming the Best Selling BYD.


Resultado de imagem para white Chery eQ

#4 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 4,434 units in June (year best), allowing it to collect a Top 5 position last month. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle.     


Resultado de imagem para white BYD e5 400

#5 – BYD e5: The automaker Plain Jane sedan, and a favorite among taxi-drivers, the no-frills sedan registered 4,047 units in June, up 26% YoY. This second youth is due to a facelift this year and, most importantly, a larger battery, allowing it to improve specs (61 kWh, 400 kms range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600), the model is a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, as the 81,000 units sold so far mean that it is the brand third bestselling PEV, behind the Qin and Tang models.



BYD Yuan front.jpg
BYD Yuan EV: A future Best Seller?



2018 ranking

There weren’t many changes on the top positions, in fact we have to go down to #6, to see a position change, with the Roewe i6 PHEV sedan (4,028 units, new personal record) climbing one position, while the JMC E200, one of the few small EVs to escape the subsidies cut, was up to #7, thanks to a record 3,638 units.

But the Climbers of the Month were the BAIC EX-Series jumping to #10, up from #15, thanks to a record 5,708 deliveries, a new second consecutive record for the Crossover nameplate, while the Roewe Ei5 EV wagon was up 4 positions, to #14, thanks to a record 4,661 units, expect both models to continue climbing positions in the next couple of months, with the Beijing Crossover possibly reaching #7, while the Shanghai Wagon might reach the Top 10 soon.

Speaking of records, it is expected that the Tesla Model X had reached a new all-time record for an imported vehicle in June, with some 2,350 deliveries, allowing it to keep a Top 20 position. 

Finally, the BAIC EU-Series rejoined the Top 20, in #16, and thanks to a recent facelift and improved specs, the sedan should climb a few more positions in the coming months.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%, up 1%) recovered ground, thanks to the Yuan BEV landing, while the runner-up BAIC (16%, down 1%), lost share due to the EC-Series sales dip, with the EX & EU-Series unable to fully compensate this sales drop.

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (12%, up 1%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the new #4, Chery (6% share), and with BAIC now only 4% above it, the SAIC brand is now going after the Silver medal. 

Looking at the SAIC Group (Roewe + MG + Maxus + Baojun) as one entity, it already has 16% of the Chinese plug-in market, so it won’t be surprising to see it as the #1 OEM in this market soon.



22 comments:

  1. Jose,

    Look at the Chery eQ. It's listed twice in the top-20 (at position 11 and at position 18).

    That must be a mistake.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. True, it's the eQ and eQ1, will change it.

      Delete
    2. TanstaaflJuly 20, 2018

      I keep nitpicking.
      Line 18 7081(total) + line 11 4434(month) = line 11 11515(total).

      Me thinks one more correction is in order.

      Delete
  2. TanstaaflJuly 20, 2018

    Cherry eQ both in position 11 and 18.
    And did I say that I love the color blue?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Blue it's favorite color too :D

      Delete
  3. It doesn't seem very likely that any Plug-In EV model will reach the 100,000 sales Milestone in 2018.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I was expecting the EC-Series to get there, but with this sales stoppage, i guess the Tesla Model 3 will be the only one to surpass the 100k this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, in the remaining second half of 2018 the Nissan Leaf might sell in pretty good numbers. Specially in Europe, because there will be no Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe before 2019. The question is if Nissan can produce enough Nissan Leafs in 2018 to satisfy demand in Europe.

      Besides in Europe, many thousands Nissan Leafs will also be sold in the US, Japan and a few other countries. All in all Nissan could reach the 100,000 global sales milestone with the Nissan Leaf in 2018 as well.

      So, the Tesla Model 3 just might not be the only Plug-In EV model that will reach the 100,000 global sales milestone in 2018. But the Tesla Model 3 will probably take the global sales crown in 2018 (and in 2019, and in 2020).

      We will see it in the coming months.

      Delete
  5. Jose,

    There are 4 PHEV models in the top 20 (2 from BYD, 2 from SAIC Roewe).

    What is the likelihood of sales success for these 4 PHEV models in the remaining second half of 2018, and also further on in 2019?

    The Chinese government incentives prioritize BEV models instead of PHEV models. At least that is what is the case, as I understand it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, but there is a large number of private buyers that prefer PHEVs, as they need the long-travel abilities that PHEVs offer.

      Delete
  6. BYD has a 19% marketshare, and thats almost 71,000 Plug-In EV sales in the first half of 2018.

    BYD has a target of 200,000 Plug-In EV sales in 2018.

    BYD should be able to achieve that target in 2018.

    A lot will depend on the demand for the newly released BYD Yuan EV.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jose,

    Are there any other Plug-In EV models (besides the three EC / EX / EU) under the BAIC brand name that have not managed enough sales numbers in 2018 (yet) to be in the top 20 list?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have more models (E-Series, EH-Series, Arcfox Lite), but they are being sold in low numbers, so i guess BAICs strategy is largely based on the three you mentioned.

      Delete
    2. not good, selling in the low hundreds per month.

      Delete
  8. Jose,

    In order to get to an annual total of 1 million Plug-In EV sales in China in 2018, the monthly sales numbers in the second half of 2018 will have to be significantly better than those in the first half of 2018. On average they will have to be higher than 100,000 every month.

    Is there any indication that points to such results in the second half of 2018?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Traditionally, the second half of the year is the best selling one, so expect a continued growth.

      But there's still no certainty that it will reach one million.

      Delete
  9. The SAIC Baojun E200 has been unveiled.

    19.2 kWh battery pack
    200 km Range (NEDC?)
    Price €11,900.-
    Two seats

    ReplyDelete
  10. percentage is relative metric cannot signify “slow-down”. from 1 to 10 is 1000%, from 10. to 30 is just 300%. for slow-down you have to measure percentage of slope change

    ReplyDelete
  11. Jose,

    There are many Chinese car manufacturers.

    How are all those Chinese car manufacturers going to comply with the 10% Quota in 2019?

    Specially those Chinese car manufacturers which do not have any Plug-In EV model on offer yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, doing the same as most foreign OEMs lagging behind do: Sticking their logos on EVs from other brands, like Mitsubishi is already doing with their Quishi, a rebranded GAC model.

      Delete