Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Global Top 20 - June 2018

Image result for BAIC EC3
The new BAIC EC-Series (261 kms NEDC range), aka EC3, can't come soon enough


Models: Month 1 before TM3 Flood:

BAIC EC-Series was totally eclipsed & Nissan Leaf recovered #1, with Tesla nameplates on the up

Registrations grew 58% in June, to almost 160,000 units, the third best month ever, so despite the last threats, the current record (174,000 units, in December '17) in holding on, but will it resist much longer? Do i hear a new record by September?...

The positive first half of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 760,000 units (+69% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.6% share, which makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

In June, the Tesla Model 3 was for the first time the Best Selling plug-in in the world, with close to 8,000 units (new pb), and with the deliveries dam being open in July, expect it to continue the Best Seller in the following months, at least until the currently eclipsed BAIC EC-Series, that just lost access to government subsidies, shows its new, subsidy able, version (the EC3). 

Bring the popcorn in Q4, as  we should see an entertaining race between these two in the race for the October/November/December titles...

Regarding the 2018 title, we can already envision what will happens, expect the Model 3 to jump ahead of the Leaf by September, with the EC-Series stealing the Silver medal from the Nissan Leaf by November/December. 

But Tesla wasn't all only about the Model 3, with the US deliveries on hold, the EV maker successfully focused on deliver their Model S & X units in overseas markets, with both nameplates climbing in the ranking, to #6 (Model S), and #7 (Model X).  

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the #9 Renault Zoe climbed one position, to Ninth, while looking below the usual Top 10, we see the #11 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV close to the top two positions, while the BMW i3, a familiar face in previous years on the Top 10, is now down to #13, despite growing sales (+8% YoY).

Looking at potential Top 10 candidates, there are three models, all coming from China: The BYD e5, the Roewe i6 PHEV and the BAIC EX-Series, if the first is a regular in Top 20 appearances, the other two are breaking records every passing month, and should be racing for a Top 10 presence by September.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics stayed at 63% of the total market, but expect this score to be improved during the year, possibly to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 




Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
The one in the middle is said to flood the US charts in July...


Manufacturers:  Month 1 before TM3 Flood - Tesla and BYD clear from the competition

June saw BAIC lose ground to the top two, with BYD beating its all-time record, thanks to 16,278 units, while Tesla was just 8 units away from beating its all-time best. 

If Tesla is the favorite to win the 2018 manufacturers title, in this case the race should be closer than in the models category, it will all depend if BYD can increase output and deliver the new Tang, Qin and Yuan models in large numbers. As with Tesla, demand is there, all we need to know is if they can make enough of them...

Elsewhere, Nissan recovered the Fifth Spot from Volkswagen, but both are now seeing the #7 Roewe getting bigger and bigger on the rear view mirror, as the Shanghai OEM posted a third consecutive(!) record result, with 12,277 units, allowing it to be Third in June, and being just 900 units behind #5.

Will we see it surpass both the German and the Japanese brands in July? If that were to happen, we would have three Chinese OEMs on the Top 5, and only one legacy OEM (BMW) in it.
 
Speaking of Chinese automakers, Chery returned to the Top 10 after a long absence, jumping three positions into Eighth, thanks to a record performance of 6,739 deliveries.

Because we are at half time of the 2018 game, let's look below the Top 10 and see the major changes happening below it, Volvo (+150% YoY), Kia (+218%), Hyundai (+58%) and the little known Chinese brand Hawtai are the big gainers this year, with the Chinese brand having already outperformed its 2017 result in just 6 months...


If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance is ahead, with 11% share (Up 1% regarding 2017), followed by BYD and Tesla, both with 9% share, while BAIC, the BMW Group and the Volkswagen Group all race for #4, with 8% share, with the interesting fact that VAG has won 2% share regarding 2017.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 46% of all deliveries, while Germany (18%, down 1%) holds steady in Second Place, and the USA (14%, up 1%) profits from the Tesla momentum, to keep Japan (11%, down 1%) at bay.



Segment Leaders


A / City Car - In a segment completely owned by Chinese OEMs, the BAIC EC-Series is the undisputed King;
B / Subcompact - The Renault Zoe continues to outsell the BMW i3;
C / Compact - A big reshuffle regarding last year, with the Nissan Leaf regaining the lead, with the Toyota Prius PHEV and BYD Qin PHEV following it at a distance; 

D / Midsize - What has been expected since a long time ago, happenned: The Tesla Model 3 is the new, undisputed, class leader;
E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S, hands down leader since 2012. Second Place is in the hands of the successful (#20) BMW 530e, followed by the Porsche Panamera PHEV, that is continuing its success story;
Sports car / Coupé / Convertible - BMW i8 (1,516 units), is in the lead once again, without real competition, for reference, the Second Placed was the recently arrived BAIC Arcfox Lite (Well, if one can consider it a Coupé...), with 574 units;
SUV / Crossover - The hottest class on the Automotive World is seeing its class poster-child, the Tesla Model X, in front, with two compact Crossovers following it: The VW Tiguan-like BYD Song PHEV (#2) and the Renault Captur-like JAC iEV7S/E (#3);
MPV / Minivan - A class that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Crossover craze, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer is still the segment Best Seller (4,735 units), followed by the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (3,982 units);
LCV / Van - Interesting changes here, with the Renault Kangoo ZE profiting from the new 33kWh battery to jump ahead, with 3,494 units, followed by the StreetScooter (1,950 units) and Peugeot Partner EV (1,350);
Pick up Truck - The Chinese Dongfeng Rich EV (108 units) repeated last year title being the only model to reach significant numbers. This is a golden opportunity that no one so far (Chinese included) has tried to take. For how long?

29 comments:

  1. Can we have top-20 from now on? It is really not so much we can see from top-10 right now. There are already too many EVs for top-10.

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    1. Will try, but will not guarantee it every month, will depend on the load of work.

      Delete
  2. Half of the top 20 Plug-In models is Chinese.

    Imagine what will happen if the Chinese start selling their Plug-In models in Europe and the US.

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  3. Loving the top 20! Thank you for that, Jose. I hope to see that as often as you have the time and information for it. :)

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  4. It will happen sooner or later. I would like an only BEV chart. The EV marketing is mature enough to us simply forget the PHEV.

    Something you would should at least give a thought José.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PHEVs aren't going anywhere soon, especially considering that mainstream buyers will value more the "safety net" of the ICE engine than early adopters, all while range is said to increase into (finally) usable range (+/- 50kms real world) in the next 12 months in a number of models (BMW & Mercedes PHEVs, etc).

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    2. +500 km range will be standard in 2-3 years in BEV. I just don´t think is rational buying a PHEV.

      Still would love at least separated charts for BEV and PHEV. They are not the same. In 2013 a 24Kwh Leaf wouldn´t make much more km than a Outlander PHEV (maybe more 70km). With the 2019 Nissan leaf than diference will be more than 350 km. Not comparable.

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  5. AnonymousJuly 31, 2018

    At 157.933 units, 2018-06 ends up as the #3 best month with just 1.413 units behind the #2 month of 2018-05 which bagged 159.346 units. Excellent.

    More significant is the fact that China has cut the subsidies for plugins under 150 km range and despite this, the worldwide sales being so high. BAIC EC-180 which normally used to be the leader dropped to just 3 units.

    Cutting subsidies and retaining high sales is really a good development. I guess by 2021-01, there will be 0 subsidies for plugins the World over.

    While Model-3 is still far behind in #3 slot among models, the Tesla is just few 100 units behind BYD in #2 position among makes. And among the groups, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsu is #1, but this will not last long.

    2018-YTD of 750.000 means 1.5 million for annualized sales. Expect 2018-H2 to be much higher.
    Whole show gets interesting.

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    Replies
    1. Good analysis, thanks!

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    2. Model 3 maybe is far behind but they had over 11k Model 3 on there way to customer at the end on June so I would be surprised if we don’t see over 15k deliveries in July, maybe over 20k? This would mean thay passes EC-series and are probably close to Leaf already after July.

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    3. Yep, it's quite possible.

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  6. Great work Jose, the Top 20 rocks.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, i used to make the Top 20 as a bi-annual thing, but considering the great feedback it is getting, i will post it more frequently.

      Delete
  7. 100,000 Nissan Leaf deliveries in 2018.

    Would that be a reasonable probability?

    Difficult to say.

    But it's certainly not impossible.

    Deliveries in the second half of the year are most of the time higher than in the first half of the year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would possible, but i do not believe it would be likely, for that Nissan would have to:

      a) Discount the 40kWh version heavily in North America and Japan, while making as much units as possible in Europe;

      b) Start to deliver the 60kWh version in volumes.


      Let's wait and see.

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  8. You are doing a fantastic work but it seams that you have missed some of Nissanas sales, acording to then they have delivered over 47k EVs in the first half of the year.

    https://insideevs.com/renault-nissan-mitsubishi-alliance-increases-ev-sales-in-2018/

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    Replies
    1. There are 4k difference. Will have to search for it, but it's not North America, Europe or Japan, there must be some markets under the radar receiving significant amounts of Leaf.


      Southeast Asia? Maybe Malaysia or Thailand?

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    2. Everything is ok, it is Nissan e-NV200, not Leaf in Malaysia))

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    3. No need to search Jose.

      In that article is mentioned: "In six months, Nissan sold more than 47,000 electric cars, including deliveries of more than 18,000 LEAFs in Europe, more than 13,000 in Japan and more than 6,500 in U.S., as well as several thousands of e-NV200."

      The e-NV200 made the difference.

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  9. Is Tesla 3 already being sold also outside US?
    I am not aware of it and if it is true, then I don't understand the difference between US and Global data for Tesla 3.

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  10. Jose,

    Now that the Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US have increased substantially in July, it will be interesting to see if the (global) Nissan Leaf deliveries have increased as well (and by how much).

    Starting in Japan.

    Any idea?

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    Replies
    1. I only have a few results, but from these first samples, the Leaf sales aren't growing anywhere close to the Model 3, so a 7-8k result for the Japanese would already be a good result.

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    2. Jose,

      In that case, already at the end of August (with still 4 months remaining in 2018), the Tesla Model 3 will take over the first position from the Nissan Leaf. And the gap between the Tesla Model 3 and the Nissan Leaf will grow wider every subsequent month. How large could this gap be at the end of 2018? Maybe even 50,000?

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    3. Could be, i guess it depends more on Tesla ability to increase production than anything else.

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  11. Jose,

    Looking forward to 2019, annual production of the Tesla Model 3 will increase even further, and it's not totally out of the question that global Tesla Model 3 deliveries in 2019 will be even more than 250,000.

    There is no other Plug-In EV model on the horizon yet that could even come close to such numbers in 2019. But there might be a few surprises on their way in China.

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