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| Let the flood begin… |
Month 1 before the (TM3) Flood: Filling up the Tesla Model 3 dam
Over 22,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 33% increase YoY, with the 2018 count crossing over 100,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share at over 1.4%.
These results alone would already be a reason to be happy with the market performance, but Tesla spent the whole June in savings mode, so that it could only cross the 200,000 units threshold in July, originating a slight deliveries drop last month, but most importantly, over 10,000 units "in transit", as in stored-somewhere-&-waiting-for-July-to-be-delivered, so expect the Tesla (Model 3) Flood to happen this month, with over 10,000 units (20,000?) being delivered in one month, something that will set not only a new all-time record in the US-market, but possibly beating the current global record, currently in the hands of BAIC (15,719 units EC-Series, delivered last November in China)
But back at June is the US, the leader Tesla Model 3 won another Monthly Best Seller, possibly collecting all future Best Seller awards until the Model Y gets into volume production, while the Second Placed Toyota Prius Prime consolidated its runner-up status, and also the Best-Selling PHEV model, so it seems that the first two places of the podium are already given, with 6 months to go.
Looking elsewhere, the hot-selling Honda Clarity PHEV (#3 in June) climbed to #7, switching places the Nissan Leaf, that was down 9% YoY, to 1,367 units, despite the new generation now being in full swing. Is the rapidgate and other models denting the Japanese hachback sales?
Talking of other changes, the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (710 units, Year Best) was up to #12, while the BMW 330e also had a year best (225 units), allowing it to climb to #19.
Other noteworthy performance was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, scoring another Personal Best, with 390 deliveries, confirming the popularity of this plug-in SUV.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (35%, up 3%) keeps gobbling up share (Will it reach 50% this year?), while Chevrolet (12%, down 2%) is losing it almost just as fast, with Toyota (12%) closing in on the GM brand, while BMW is holding steady in Fourth, with 10%.
Tesla Model 3 & Others
Pl
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Model
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2018
Sales
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1
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Mercedes C-Class
|
29,659
|
2
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BMW 3-Series
|
24,180
|
3
|
Tesla Model 3
|
24,105
|
4
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Infiniti Q50
|
19,157
|
5
|
Acura TLX
|
16,890
|
Looking at the midsize vehicles, in June the Tesla Model 3 was for the second month in a row the Best Selling nameplate, with over 5,800 deliveries, narrowly beating the Mercedes C-Class, with 5,742.
Also important to realize, is the fact that all the Model 3 competitors are witnessing drops of 20% or more YoY, reinforcing the idea that the Tesla nameplate is directly stealing sales to the class best sellers.
If YTD, it is (just) Third Placed, with deliveries expected to go into 5 digits next month, the Tesla midsizer will have the class leadership in the bag by next month, and keep it for a long, long time.
Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class, currently in the hands of the Toyota Camry, with 30,000 sales last month and 151,000 this year.
Given that the mainstream market is more price-sensitive, the Model 3 can only aspire to play in this league on a monthly basis, if the $35,000 Short Range version comes alive and is made on a large scale.
So, maybe in 2019? 2020?
other sales US https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
ReplyDeleteLooking at current data that is capturing around 10% of Model 3 sales and deliveries, July is looking to be worse than June when it comes to deliveries. While there might be a "flood" of model 3s, it is not going to be as big as we thought at least not yet.
ReplyDeleteThe Model 3 is not the reason why we are seeing a drop in luxury sedans sales because luxury sedan sales have been dropping for years now. So while the Model 3 might be adding to decrease in sales for many other models it is not the main cause.
With that said, the Model 3 with an ASP of $55,000 is never going to sell as many units as the Toyota Camry does per year. We might see the Model 3 have a month or 2 of delivering more cars than the Camry but the Model 3 with all its trims will not sell 387,000 units a year world wide let alone in the US.
Do not confuse a 2 year backlog and the deliveries we will see from it as a long term consistent thing.
Well, maybe we can do a guess game for TM3 deliveries number for July in the US.
DeleteI will dive in the shark tank first and I would say with some 11.000 TM3 in transit at the end of Q2, and with no more than 1.000 going to Canada this month, we already can assume a ten thousand deliveries. Then, with maybe 2.000 cars produced in the first week (TM3 resting days), plus some 4.000 in the second week, some 4.500 maybe this week and some 4.800 next week, I would guess some 18.500 TM3 to be delivered in the US this month and a production of about 18.000 cars this month, counting with the two last days (30th and 31st at full production rate).
About the backlog confusion, the same was said in 2012, when Tesla had a backlog of some 20.000 pre-orders and people were saying to not confuse this with the long term deliveries. And people who said that were right...at the other way of the guess as Tesla always sold more than 20.000 Model S each year since 2013. The only downside for the TM3 in a long term (more than 6 years) is the abandon of the sedan as a preferential car to SUV and Cross-Over models (so more directly with the arrival of Model Y, but also with other car maker's competitors).
Yes, i also expect some 20k Model 3 units to be delivered in July, as for future demand, the Tesla model is undoubtedly going to rule over its class in North America, as for reaching Toyota Camry sales levels, i have my doubts, same as replicating the success of the Model 3 outside North America.
DeleteHey can you make a post about India?
ReplyDeleteYou haven't made one yet and as far as I know they want to ban ICE cars in 2030 so would be really interesting what the state of the PEV market is.
The numbers (and models available) are too small to make a post out of it, basically the only passenger EV available on the market is the Mahindra E2O, that is selling some 50-100 units/month.
DeleteHi Jose
ReplyDeleteI was wondering why you decided no to go direct with the inside ev's sales numbers as you have done previously
In order to comply with Tesla strong global numbers, i had to reduce the estimates for the USA.
Delete