Thursday, March 7, 2019

Netherlands February 2019

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Tesla Model 3 lands in hot market

February had 2,457 plugin registrations, up 232% YoY, which translates in a PEV Share of 8.2%, and pulls the year to date count to 5,713 units (+213%), with the 2018 PEV share now growing to 7.4%, with BEVs representing 80% of registrations, or 5.9% share.

This good market performance was the result of several good individual results, starting with the Best Seller of the Month, the Tesla Model 3, that registered 472 units in its first deliveries month, allowing it to be #15 in the mainstream market. 

Interestingly, the remaining podium positions belonged to two other recent, long range BEVs, with the Hyundai Kona EV (323 units) and Kia Niro EV (319) underlining the changing market dynamics. Do i hear the the word "disruption" in the background?...

Outside the podium, the Nissan Leaf (311 registrations) keeps pumping out decent performances, while the BMW i3 and VW e-Golf, both tied in #5, round up the Top 5.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #7, with 152 units, being by far the Best Selling PHEV in this market.

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
472
2
Hyundai Kona EV
323
3
Kia Niro EV
319
4
Nissan Leaf
311
5
5
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
180
180

Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Hyundai Kona EV surpassing the VW e-Golf, while the Tesla Model 3 jumped to 4th place, and the Kia Niro EV was up to #5, making a 100% BEV Top 5. 

Outside the Top 10, the Smart Forfour ED rose two positions to #14, while the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV joined the Top 20, in #18, with 35 deliveries in February.  

The #12 Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV is the current Best Selling Luxury SUV, but the Volvo XC90 PHEV is running close.

In the large luxury class, we have the #15 BMW 530e (50 units) ahead of the competition (Panamera PHEV and Model S), although the numbers are not very significant.

In the manufacturers ranking, Hyundai (20%, down 1%) is the current leader, with Volkswagen (15%, down 5%) following it, while Nissan (12%) is in the 3rd Spot, ahead of Kia and Mitsubishi (both with 8%).



Source: RAI Vereniging


Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition
Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
472
2
Mercedes C-Class
411
3
Volvo S/V60 PHEV
301
4
BMW 3-Series
169
5
Audi A4
131

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now starting to be written, comparing the Model 3 deliveries in its first month on the market, against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to outrun them all, although the ICE models behavior differs from one to the other, while the Audi A4 and BMW 3-Series registrations are down some 50%, the Mercedes nameplate sales are actually up, which could mean that BMW and Audi buyers are deffecting to Tesla in much larger numbers than Mercedes loyalists.


13 comments:

  1. The results clearly indicate that EVs cannot yet reach the mass market.Tesla results are not much better than Kona and Niro. In my view we will be seeing some rapid displacement in the premium market, yet it will be hard to enter the mass market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do they? This is the first month of Tesla Model 3 availability in Europe, more like half a month really so probably best to wait a for a couple of months of data there. And then the Kona and Niro (and the Audi E-Tron etc) are production constrained.

      I think it looks like supply being outstripped by demand and slow production ramps will be the limiting factor.

      Here in the UK if you want an e-Niro and weren't among the first 900 to order then you're out of luck for 2019 at least.

      Delete
    2. The Model 3 and the Niro have long waiting lists, i.e. current deliveries do not reflect demand. (Don't know whether that's still the case for the Kona too -- but I think it very likely...)

      Delete
    3. The Kona still has a long waiting list, too.

      Delete
  2. Jose,

    These 3 EV models aren't in the Dutch top 20 list yet:

    Jaguar i-Pace 20
    Tesla Model X 16
    Audi e-tron quattro 2

    But they will enter the Dutch top 20 list in the next few months.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will they? The e-tron likely will, since it's an entirely new model; but the Model X and the I-Pace have been available in the past, and saw a lot of their demand pulled forward before the tax change... It will take a while for them to recover.

      OTOH, the second half of the top 20 is so weak, that they might make it in spite of that...

      Delete
  3. Number one Hyundai so far might not be able to keep the lead as the year progresses, will it be even in the Top3 by end of June?

    Regarding Tesla, those Model 3 YTD numbers are somewhat incorrect because it should be subtracted from the current total, at least, all of those 26 famous red Model 3 with plates XK-xxx-Z as there are evidences that they have been brought to Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, among others, and issued new national plates at their destination. It should then, put current 2019 amount at 486 units or less. Keeping on the subject, the vast majority of Model 3 registered in the Netherlands are versions with black paint and small aero wheels, just those two characteristics show vehicles are being ordered with budget-orientation in mind. At the moment, full data isn't available in order to allow a correct assessment, but shouldn't be discarded the great chances of people moving from hybrid Toyota and Lexus, Leafs, Zoes and similar.
    Also, your stated Model S numbers are incorrect, January had 10 registrations giving a total of 20 YTD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually, as of this morning, total model 3 registrations in Holland is 728, according to RDW's open dataset. So even taking your number of 486 for Feb, that means 242 model 3 registered on the first seven days of March

      Delete
    2. The numbers are always skewed by cars registered in one country and then brought to another as used... Germany for example regularly sees relatively high registrations of Kia Soul EV; but these cars are nowhere to be seen -- since almost all of them are shipped to Norway right after.

      Compared to that, the 26 showroom units of the Model 3 are irrelevant for the big picture...

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    3. @Trucla,if you don't mind, can you share with us the link where we can see the live data for Tesla registrations in Netherlands?
      Is that something like the one from Norway: https://teslastats.no/,thanks.

      Delete
    4. https://opendata.rdw.nl/en/

      Sadly, I think most of the website is only in Dutch, but this provides an up to date Dataset of all registered motorvehicles in The Netherlands (with a delay of 24-36h).

      Delete
    5. According to that opendata.rdw.nl website, at 12 March, there are 788 current Model 3 Regsitrations. And as I understand it, only actual registered vehicle are included, with the most recent registration date being 20190311, license plate XP-799-X.

      Delete
    6. Thanks for the tip!

      Delete