Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Germany June 2020

AUDI A3 SPORTBACK audi a3 e-tron 40 tfsi e 204hk - j&#xd6'nk&#xd6 ...
Audi A3 PHEV: "OLD?!?!? Who's OLD?!?!"

8,6% share!


If the German overall market is still recovering from the pandemic, dropping just 32% YoY in June, the local plugin market is in much better shape, having registered almost 19,000 units, up 124% YoY, mostly thanks to PHEVs, that jumped an amazing 274%(!), with last month plugin share reaching 8.6% (3.7% BEV), pulling the yearly tally at 7.8% (3.7% BEV). 

With the recent incentive changes, it is expected that the German plugin market will have a strong second half of the year, with record months (ahem, September) allowing it to end possibly at some 10% plugin share, which would mean 2021 would be a very (VERY) interesting year to follow...#Störung '21

Although the PEV market growth is always good news, the not so good part is that much of it is due to increased sales of plugin hybrids, that are already the majority of plugin registrations this year (47% BEV vs 53% PHEV), and they should increase their lead throughout the summer, at least until September...But more on that later.

Back at last month Best Sellers, in June the VW e-Golf was beaten by the Renault Zoe, with the small EV scoring its first win since last January, the Renault model success on the other side of the rhine is a true case study for French companies, and i bet the Zoe's 22 kW AC charging has something to do with it...

Below these two Best Sellers, we have three plugin hybrids, with the evergreen Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV banking on its strong points (lots of utility for the price) to end in 3rd, with 861 units, while another oldtimer, the Audi A3 PHEV, is enjoying a second youth, having even scored a record performance last month, with 838 units.

In #5 we have a newcomer to the Top 5, with the Ford Kuga PHEV registering a record 807 units, an amazing performance for the Ford SUV, that is becoming a true success story for the Dearborn maker in Europe.


Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Renault Zoe
1,448
2
VW e-Golf
1,310
3
Mit. Outlander PHEV
861
4
Audi A3 PHEV
838
5
Ford Kuga PHEV
807


Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, with the Renault Zoe reducing the distance to the leader VW e-Golf to just 254 units, which could allow the French hatchback to reach the leadership by August, and even hang on to the leadership in the Super-September month...

And why will September be Super? Now imagine this, a certain VW ID.3 lands, delivering some 8,000 units (wild guess) at once, landing immediately on the podium, kicking out the Renault Zoe from the throne in the following months, and speaking of the Zoe, the French EV should register (at least) some 2,000 units in September, all while the Tesla Model 3 will benefit from an unconstrained end-of-quarter peak, and deliver some 2,500 units.

So, in just three EVs, 12,500 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 15,000 units, and you get 27,500 units, thus obliterating March record result of 19,145 units...and reaching some 13-15% plugin share!

Now, that's when things start to get interesting...

The PHEV race is also interesting to see, the leader is still last year winner, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, in #4, but the Japanese SUV has to keep up the pace with the new #5 Audi A3 PHEV, that is ending its career on a high note, without forgetting also the #6 VW Passat GTE.

And even the #7 Mercedes E300e/de family have a shot at winning the PHEV category, especially now that thanks to the new incentives, the PHEV versions will become even more price-competitive regarding their ICE siblings, so Mercedes better find an extra supply of batteries for the E300, because they will surely need them...

Speaking of the big Merc, it has once again regained the lead in the Luxury category, after surpassing the Audi e-Tron, becoming the new Top Dog in this (high end) race, and the good news for Mercedes haven't stopped there, as its new baby, the compact A250e joined the ranking, in#20, with its young one scoring another record performance, with 562 units. 

It has been said that Mercedes is having trouble in ramping up production of its small plugin model, due to the lack of available batteries, so once that issue is over, the A250e should reach higher places in the table.

And while some climb in the table, others are on their way down...Like is the case of the BMW 330e, as if it wasn't enough to be trounced surpassed by the Rock Star Tesla Model 3, the Bimmer also saw its Mercedes C300e/de arch rival say bye bye and jump ahead, and now even the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins are ahead of it!

Oh the horror! Oh the tragedy! - You might be thinking...(Then again, maybe not)

There's a lot of merit from the Swedes, that scored yet another record performance, with 587 registrations, allowing them to jump 3 spots in the table.

There were other models shining, the #15 Hyundai Kona EV scored a year best score of 381 units last month, while the Opel Grandland X PHEV was up one spot, to #17, thanks to a record 456 registrations (It's in these kinds of markets that Opel becomes an asset to PSA), while the Ford Kuga PHEV finally joins the table, in #19, making it the first Ford to join this Top 20.

Outside the Top 20, a reference for the #21 Skoda Citigo EV, that is just 55 units from joining the table, the Mercedes GLC300e registered 337 units, the GLC best score since 2017, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV scored 306 units, a new personal best, highlighting Volvo's good moment, and the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having registered a record 246 units in June.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (16%) leads the way and Audi (11%) is the runner-up, making a 1-2 lead for the Volkswagen Group, while a slowing BMW (9%, down 1%) lost the last place of the podium to a rising Mercedes (10%, up 2%), while the #5 Renault (8%, up 1%), now reinforced with the Captur and Megane PHEV's, is also looking to surpass the Bavarian maker.

BMW needs to get their act together, if it wants to benefit from the upcoming sales bonanza, for now things aren't looking great, the BMW i3 sales are down 44% YoY in a booming market, while a year ago, BMW had two PHEVs (530e and 225xe) in the Top 10, when now its best placed PHEV is the 330e, in #14, and like mentioned before, it's not in its best shape...

As a consequence of all this, if a year ago, BMW was leading its domestic market with 19% share, now it is only #4, with 9%...On the flipside, a year ago, Volkswagen was only 5th, with 7% share. How quickly things change, isn't it?

So BMW now needs to throw the kitchen sink (meaning adding now and in volume the 330e/530e Touring versions, and also the X2 PHEV, and start delivering the iX3 as soon as possible, while focusing on developing fast the i4), to keep up the pace, because as the market goes into warp speed and disruptions start to happen, it is decision time for the German OEMs, with the Volkswagen Group being the major force behind the current momentum and Mercedes (Mercedes!) picking up pace, thanks to a strong PHEV lineup, BMW is losing space to grow. For how long?    





42 comments:

  1. 35k is my best guess for Sep!
    Fun months coming!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, my guess is on the conservative side, it can go much higher.

      Fun months indeed!

      Delete
    2. Yeah,ln January and February 2019 all of Europe could not sell 35000 piece

      Delete
  2. AnonymousJuly 21, 2020

    Half year elapsed and great perspectives for 200000 PEV sales in the German market, just 50% more than in 2019.

    From the posted data, Q22020 standings are:

    1st Volkswagen Group with 24691 vehicles
    2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 10844 vehicles
    3rd Daimler with 9463 vehicles
    4th BMW Group with 4530 vehicles
    5th Tesla with 4367 vehicles

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why make a list there you ignore 35% of the sales? If the list should be done at all every model should be counted. As your Tesla numbers only is Model 3 and assumes that Model S and Model X sales is zero I think your list is completely useless.

      Jose, either you make a list where you count all sales or you decide to not approve this kind of comments. Only gives wrong miss information.

      Delete
    2. If your concern is centred on the Tesla paltry performance, fear not, they aren't selling significantly less than in the past year.

      If your concern is towards misleading data, fear not, here, full data below:

      Volkswagen Group: 17377 BEV + 14618 PHEV = 31995 units
      BMW Group: 3399 BEV + 9006 PHEV = 12405 units
      Daimler: 3200 BEV + 8900 PHEV = 12100 units
      Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: 8240 BEV + 3763 PHEV = 12003 units
      Kia/Hyundai Group: 4139 BEV + 2294 PHEV = 6433 units
      Volvo Group: 5 BEV + 5148 PHEV = 5153 units
      Tesla: 5103 BEV = 5103 units
      PSA Group: 1725 BEV + 3177 PHEV = 4902 units
      Ford: 6 BEV + 1867 PHEV = 1873 units
      Jaguar Land Rover: 313 BEV + 347 PHEV = 660 units
      Toyota Group: 184 PHEV units
      Honda: 101 BEV units
      Mazda: 29 BEV units

      Cheers!

      Delete
    3. Thanks!

      So VW group is already selling more BEVs than PHEVs... Didn't expect that.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Kiwi.
      I’m very well aware that it’s was the same with other manufacturers, just wanted to give an example. I have seen similar post from someone on this site for over a year but just at you show, the numbers is completely off if you don’t take all models.

      Delete
  3. "Störung" is not the correct translation for "disruption" in this context. I think "Zerrüttung" would be the closest literal translation? Though that too sounds a bit odd -- we'd likely put that differently. (Not sure how, though ;-) )

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Zerschlagung" maybe :-O

      Delete
    2. Unterbrechung, is probably the best literal translation. I am not sure that really hits the spirit of Disruption in this context though. This maybe one of those instances where an English word will have to be adopted as the best way to express the sentiment.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousJuly 22, 2020

      i think "Umwälzung" would be a good translation since disruption means a sudden great change. "Umwälzung" means to completely turn around a system a process or a element.

      Delete
    4. Yeah, I considered "Umwälzung" as well :-)

      Delete
    5. - Erdbeben (~earthquake)
      - Erdrutsch (~landslide)
      - Erschütterung (~shaking)
      - Aufbrechen (~burst)
      [...]
      ;)

      Delete
    6. "Aufbrechen" sounds about right for the kind of event we will witness :)

      Delete
  4. Not sure 22 kW AC charging is that much of a selling point? In situations where you actually have to wait for the charge to finish, you'd want DC charging anyway; while in other situations it rarely makes a difference whether it takes 1 1/2 or 3 hours to charge I'd say... Except maybe on chargers with time-based payment? Don't know how common that is for AC charging.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJuly 21, 2020

      Certainly 3x32A is a very compelling sales enabler, as it is in France or Netherlands too, but as many others also, Renault can't get enough of self-registrations. Concerning september forecasts, Renault from now on might focus instead on Megane and Captur PHEVs meaning that the Zoe may reach 700-800 registrations, the Model 3 likely 1500 registrations and the ID.3 more likely in the region of 4000-5000 registrations.

      Delete
  5. Interesting to see a strong performance from the Outlander, after it suddenly scored rather poorly in most markets recently...

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  6. I don't often listen to radio, but yesterday I did, and before I was able to change the channel, I heard an ad for the Kona EV... Which was a double first for me: first time I heard/saw an ad for this model; and first time I heard an EV ad on radio :-)

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  7. It's worth pointing out that while -- like in many European markets right now -- PHEV growth overshadowed BEVs, the latter actually also more than doubled their market share YoY...

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    Replies
    1. probably by the end of the year everything will fall into place 67%-33%.in Europe

      Delete
  8. 18868 is a whole new territory that was unthinkable 1 year ago. Congrats Germans.
    Anxiously waiting for July 30 to see the Europe results.

    All this without significant presence of Tesla because of Covid.
    Hope the coming months will be different and BEVs will gain the upper edge especially in Q4 when VW ID.3 hits the market. I believe the ID.3 goes on sale only in Oct and not in Sep.

    Ford Kuga PHEV seems to be a significant player in the right segment.
    I think the PHEVs are gaining market share from Diesel. All good.

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    Replies
    1. well, as a spoiler, i can already say that June was a record month in Europe...Stay tuned! ;)

      Delete
  9. Just to make sure. Do you count Audi E-Tron and E-Tron Sportback as the same vehicle? It's pretty much the same car but with different roofline. It shoud be counted as one vehicle the same way Mercedes C-Class or E-Class estate/wagon/kombi and sedan versions are lumped together.

    Also Mercedes C-Class PHEV and E-Class PHEV overtaking BMW's 5-series and 3-series PHEVs was pretty much expected since Mercedes is generally more popular brand in Germany. And not to mention that E-Class taxis are more common than BMW taxis. Also a lot of police cars are C-Classes. Majority of these cars are estates. BMW just recently stared offering 330e Touring (estate) and 530e Touring will be available before November 2020. So that should help.

    It makes a huge difference. Can't find the source but I remember reading that Touring(estate) takes up over 60% of sales of all 3-series BMWs in Germany. This is a reason why future electric Mercedes EQE and BMW i4 could dwarf Model 3 sales in Europe if they offer estate versions. Of course EQE is one class higher than 3-series or Model 3. We don't know if they are working on sedan/estate version of EQC (not the SUV) but electric 3-series was spied recetly (not the i4).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, i do count both e-Tron's together.

      Thanks for the input, i was suspecting many of those Mercedes were taxis, and i agree that station wagons are a big deal in the D/E segments, that's why i think the Model Y will outsell the Model 3 by a big margin, as it will be a sort of "Model 3 SW" in the eyes of many.

      Delete
  10. AnonymousJuly 21, 2020

    Just to sure. Do you count Audi E-Tron and E-Tron Sportback as the same vehicle? It's pretty much the same car but with different roofline. It should be counted as one vehicle the same way Mercedes C-Class and E-Class estate/wagon/kombi and sedan versions are lumped together.

    Also Mercedes C-Class PHEV and E-Class PHEV overtaking BMW's 530e/330e PHEVs was pretty much expected since Mercedes is Generally more popular brand in Germany. And not to mention that E-Class taxis are more common than BMW taxis. Also a lot of police cars are C-Classes. Majority of these cars are estates. BMW just recetly started offering 330e Touring (estate) and 530e Touring will be available before November 2020. So that should help.

    It makes a huge difference. Can't find the source but I remember reading that Touring (estate) takes up over 60% of sales of all 3-series BMWs in Germany. I believe it's even more onesided between Passat sedan and estate.

    This is reason why future electric Mercedes EQE and BMW i4 could dwarf Model 3 sales in Europe if they offer estate version. Of cource EQE is one class higher than 3-series or Model 3. We don't know if they are working on sedan/estate version of EQC (not the SUV model) but electric 3-series was spied recetly (not the i4) so there is hope for electric estates. Currently there are no pure electric estates available in the German market. I guarantee you PHEV/BEV ratio would be just a little bit different if there were any BEV estates. VW ID Space Vizzion is currently the only confirmed BEV estate that is coming to the market made by European carmakers. It should be very popular and looking at the figures it could be more efficient that ID.4 SUV. WLTP range of 366 miles with 82kWh (probably 77kWh usable like with ID.4) battery pack vs ID.4's WLTP range of 311 miles with the same battery pack (sporback/coupe verions of ID.4 will have more are because of better aero).

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    1. The ID.5/Space Vizzion SW looks to be a big success, especially because there won't be much comptition in that body format.

      Hurry up with that one, VW...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJuly 22, 2020

      nah, you guys are getting it wrong: Taycan CrossTurismo is just around the corner

      Delete
    3. The VIZZION will surely not be quite as efficient as the ID.3, since it's quite a bit bigger. On the other hand, it will have a larger battery up to 16 modules (~111 kW gross) like the BUZZ, vs. the compact models with only 12 -- so range in the top variant should still be better.

      BTW, while some rumours say ID.5 will be the official name of the VIZZION, others claim it's the name for the "coupe" version of the ID.4, i.e. a badge-engineered Skoda Enyaq...

      Delete
  11. With so many Phevs, there would be interesting to see separate top 20 for bevs and phevs.

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  12. @José Pontes
    So, in just three EVs, 12,500 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 15,000 units, and you get 27,500 units, thus obliterating March record result of 19,145 units...and reaching some 13-15% plugin share!
    Sales in Germany will be around 350000 in September.the forecast overstated

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  13. Belgium,Switzerland,Austria-interesting markets.rarely get reviewed

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    1. i know, but the day only has 24 hours, so...there's only so much i can do.

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    2. either do something well, or don't do it at all.everyone has 24 hours a day.no one complained:)

      Delete
    3. What cave are you living in? In the real world, pretty much everyone is complaining about the day having to few hours...

      And are you seriously attacking someone for providing a service for free but not doing it well enough by your standards? Shut up and to it better, princess -- or otherwise just shut up.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  14. I apologize if I offended anyone.Resentment is not the best feeling,in my opinion.

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  15. July reviews:Romania,Costa Rica,Islandia,Finland.I have great respect for these markets,but the leaders are completely different.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Yeah, Iceland is just the #2 market in the World, sharewise, and Finland is also on the Top 5, so...Not really important markets.

      Costa Rica is only the market with highest share in Latin America, so not really important, and Romania is one of the most important markets in Eastern Europe...

      Besides, Belgium had an article in March, Austria in April and Switzerland in May, while the last time i had reviewed Finland was January.

      Finally, if you're not happy with the content of EV Sales and want more, there are gazillions of websites on the Internet, see if any of them have what you need.

      Delete
    2. I'll stay with your permission.If you need compliments,then I really like your work

      Delete