Friday, July 31, 2020

Global Top 20 June 2020

Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação
Tesla Model Y: Welcome to the Top 20!


Models: Tesla Model Y joins the table

Registrations were down 22% in June, which if isolation sounds bad, the truth is that the 230.000 units registered last month represented the 3rd best result in the last 18 months and a new year best, so one can hardly complain, especially considering that the second half of the year has great growth prospects, which might even turn around the YTD numbers, currently down by 16% YoY

And the overall automotive market isn't much better either, having dropped by 18% last month, with sales down 28% this year, and because of this, June's PEV share went up to 3,6%, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 2,9%, already above the 2,5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the gravity that the subsequent economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

In June, BEVs were down (-31%), while plugin hybrids returned to positive numbers (+14%), but despite that, the BEV/PHEV breakdown remained stable at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 

With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September.

In other news, the BYD Qin Pro EV surpassed the BMW 530e/Le, climbing one position, to #5, while the Hyundai Kona EV did the same to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with the Korean crossover reaching #7, and the good news for pure electric models haven't ended here, as the two new entries, the #13 Baojun E-Series and #14 Tesla Model Y, displaced two PHEVs from the ranking (Toyota Prius PHEV and Volvo XC60 PHEV), with plugin hybrids now having only 3 models in the Top 20 (#6 BMW 530e/Le, #8 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and #10 VW Passat PHEV), although one should say that the Swedish SUV should return soon to the table, as it is just 100 units below the #20 Chevrolet Bolt, and has beaten its personal best in June, with 3.277 units, so we should hear from it again soon.

One bright spot on the plugin hybrid side was the VW Passat PHEV climbing one spot, to #10, in no small part thanks to its Chinese sales.

There were more action on the second half of the table, with the Kia Niro EV climbing to #16, thanks to a record 3.015 registrations in June, while the Tesla Model X benefited from the end of quarter high tide to jump 4 positions, to #15.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to two recent plugin hybrids on the rise, the Volvo XC40 PHEV scoring a record 2.975 units, while the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape) registered a record 3.701 units.





Manufacturers: Volkswagen jumps to #2

With such a high level of sales, June saw 7 brands score five-digit performances, and is Tesla's score isn't surprising, considering past end-of-quarter high tides, there were a few surprising scores, with three record performances: Volkswagen registered 14.829 units, allowing it to reach the runner-up spot, while Renault had 11.499 deliveries, climbing to #6, but the biggest surprise is Volvo, with the Swedish carmaker punching well above its weight, with 10.804 units, jumping in the YTD table to #7, a stark contrast to the #16 spot of last year.  

Having lost the Silver medal to Volkswagen, even the 3rd spot is looking pretty shaky for BMW, as the #4 BYD is shortening the distance (1.401 units separate both makers) to it, so we might see BMW kicked out of the podium soon...

Others makers on the rise are Mercedes, than jumped two positions in one month, to #11, thanks to a record 8.784 units, while Porsche also had a record month, allowing it to climb one spot, to #19. 

We have a new entry in the Top 20, with Ford rejoining the Best Sellers table, after a 4 year absence, thanks to a record 4,516 units (its second best in a row), ironically, Ford has replaced Chevrolet in the table, which could be a sign of the changing dynamics in the (former) Detroit Big 3... 

Outside the Top 20, the only brand close enough to ambition a Top 20 spot is Chery, that leads a number of Chinese brands looking for a place in the Top 20.







Category leaders

Here's a look at the current segment leaders:


A segment / City Cars - SAIC Baojun E-Series (13.673 units). Last year winner is in front again, with a sizeable 4.000 units advantage over the Chery eQ and Great Wall Ora R1;


B segment / Subcompacts - Renault Zoe (37.154 units). With almost 3 times as much sales as the category #2, the Peugeot 208 EV, the French EV is on its way to repeat the category title;


C segment / Compacts - Nissan Leaf (23.867). This year the Leaf will have a hard time to repeat the category title, if the #2 VW e-Golf shouldn't pose a threat in the end, because it is a couple of months of being discontinued, the same can't be said about the upcoming VW ID.3, that running from behind, might be able to steal the trophy in the last days of the year;


D segment / Midsize - Tesla Model 3 (142.346). There isn't even the slightest chance for discussion here, the Californian is just in a different league, regarding the #2 BYD Qin Pro EV.


E/F segments / Fullsize - BMW 530e/Le (20.586). Like last year, the big Bimmer is not giving any chances, doubling the result of the #2 Tesla Model S.


B/C segment SUVs - This is now Korean turf, with the Hyundai Kona EV ahead (19.286 units), now being followed by the Kia Niro EV cousin, that surpassed the SAIC MG eZS EV last month;


D segment SUVs - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (18.531 units). The perennial category winner will finally be removed by the throne this year, by what it looks like it will be another chronic winner, the Tesla Model Y;


E/F segment SUVs - Audi e-Tron (17.592 units). Unless Tesla has a big ace up its sleeve for the October refresh, 2020 will be the year that the Tesla Model X will lose the category trophy for the first time, in this case for the Audi e-Tron.


MPVs / Minivans - Chevrolet Bolt (11.496 units). In a contracting segment, the slow selling Chevrolet EV should take away the category award;


LCVs / Vans - Renault Kangoo EV (4.177 units). In a vehicle class where not much used to happen, the French van is going in front to win another trophy, but now it has to keep a close eye on the Korean siblings (Hyundai Porter EV and Kia Bongo EV), as well as a couple of Chinese vans, so we might a surprise here, towards the end of the year;  


Sports cars - BMW i8 (557 units). The eternal class winner, now in its last days on the market, should lose this year trophy to a representative of Chinese EV exotica: the Leapmotor S01, a small coupe that with 556 units already in 2020, should take this year Best Seller Award;  


Pick-ups - Dongfeng Rich-6 EV. With only a few dozens of units registered, the Dongfeng model is doing enough to beat the less than a handful Chinese counterparts and lead this neglected category. Of course, 2021 should be a whole different story... #US Monster Trucks





24 comments:

  1. How is the Bolt in the minivan category? To the best of my knowledge, it has virtually identical form factor as Kona... Pitting it against the likes of the Pacifica is absurd.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats exactly what I am saying all along. CUV, MPV, MUV, minivan ... are getting jumbled up.
      Chevy is going to launch an EV called Bolt EUV which stands for Electric Utility Vehicle and its a crossover.
      Should we call it CUV-EUV?
      Any 5 door vehicle taller than 1,5 and has regular doors, call it crossover.

      Delete
    2. I had doubts in placing the Bolt there.

      Maybe i will remove that category in next updates, the models are dwindling with time.

      Delete
    3. Well, with the upcoming Mercedes EQV, we will soon have a new entrant I think? Or is that too large to qualify as a minivan?...

      Delete
    4. Because the category is MPV/Minivan, anything from a tiny Fiat 500L to a Mercedes EQC qualifies...

      Delete
  2. Bang, Tesla Model Y storms into #14. I thought it may end up in #19 or #20.
    Now they have 3 models in Top-20. Hope the Model-S/X should bring the Model-S
    also in the Top-20. But a $75K vehicle selling so high is very difficult.

    This is the 1st month of this year that global sales crossed 200.000 mark.
    2019-H1 had 1.1 million sales and 2020-H1 sales of 950K is impressive given
    the Covid onslaught on the overall sales and the subsidy reduction.

    BEVs capturing Top-5, 7 in Top-10 and 17 in Top-20 is a feat. But it may not
    last long as the rise of Ford Kuga and Toyota RAV-4 plugins may soon storm into the table.
    Legacy automakers may at least prefer plugins to BEVs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well depend if Toyota selling only 5000 RAV4 Primes this year in US is just them shifting most of the supply to the Europe (as many manufacturers are doing right now) or if the battery supply issues are severe enough that supply will be limited worldwide.

      Also @José - will you be counting Escape and Kuga as one model or separate ones?

      Delete
    2. Model S - Maybe it returns to the Top 20 if the upcoming refresh is thorough;

      Ford Escape / Kuga PHEV - They are both counted as one model, in the next edition i will use both names.

      Delete
    3. Well, it looks like the power train refresh at least will be pretty thorough. There is also claims of a new body (though it's not known whether it will look different, or just different internal construction) -- and of course there's the perennial rumours of an interior refresh...

      Delete
    4. Here's my take on it: 120kWh version for the Model S/X, and a surprise 100 kWh battery for the Model 3/Y.

      You read it here first, folks!

      Delete
    5. First? This kind of speculation is everywhere! :-)

      Difference between Model 3/Y and S/X should be larger though: on top of any cell-level improvements that should come to both platforms ultimately (though not soon), Model S/X has some extra room for improvement by switching to the denser pack architecture of Model 3/Y. (Or quite possibly both switching to an even more advanced one...) So if anything, the difference between 3/Y and S/X should become larger in the future, not smaller.

      Delete
  3. Kona is 26662 YTD according to this

    https://insideevs.com/news/433719/hyundai-kona-electric-sales-record-june-2020/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's quite a discrepancy... And AFAIK these are Hyundai's official numbers? So should be correct.

      Delete
  4. @ Jose Pontes
    Since your group has all the sales info, can you please publish and article on whenever a landmark sale is achieved.
    For ex: Tesla group sales crossed 1 million mark, Model 3 sales crossing 500.000 and so on.
    Based on available data (mostly from ev-sales-blogspot and some from wiki) I see that the Tesla Model S sales crossed 301.000 mark in 2020-06. This is 1 of the greatest models which uleashed a mass sales of a luxury car forcing other automakers to either increase the range or cut the prices or both.
    Now Model 3 sales stands at 591.000 + while Nissan Leaf sales at 481.000 +. Probably next month with the July sales coming in, Model 3 may hit the 600.000 mark which is significant.

    I am sure every month some company or model will be crossing 100.000 or 200.000 or 500.000 mark thats worth publishing and spreading the message about how popular it is. Prospective customers will buy that model.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Toyota did not release 2020-Q2 USA sales by model. Though they released to 3rd party excluding hybrid sales.
    We dont know how many hybrids they sold.
    With every passing quarter, automakers are becoming secretive about their hybrids, plugins and electrics.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Jose!
    Thanks for the data, could you do the ranking by OEM?

    ReplyDelete
  7. İ was expecting more from byd E1. İt is nowhere near Baojun or Ora.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BYD E1 and Ora R1 are in a completely different class than Baojun E-series. (The latter is a two-seater.)

      Delete
  8. With 6 months in, and the market down around 15% on more than 150 000 units, this mainly due to the pandemic impact, we witness the rise and rise of European carmakers and the reduction of Sino carmakers in the Top 20 chart.

    From the posted data, Q22020 carmaker standings are:

    1st Tesla with 179050 vehicles
    2nd Volkswagen Group with 111539 vehicles
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 84501 vehicles
    4th Kia-Hyundai with 63731 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 58883 vehicles

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And know we see that you are off by 13k on Volkswagen group and 5k on BMW group as you don’t use all the numbers. Maybe you should let Jose do the calculations as you posts are misleading.

      Delete
  9. José,

    Do you have any information about the US market?
    Is the PEV share increasing or decreasing?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete