World Top 20 December 2014 (Special Edition)

"I'm Coming to Get'ya, Leaf!"

Models - Leaf Had To Sweat

With a massive 37.000 plug-ins sold in December, the global market for electric cars continues to grow at a healthy rate, ending the year with some 315.0000 units, with record sales from several models, like the Tesla Model S (5.498 units!), Renault Zoe (2.556 units), BYD Qin (1.819 units), with a couple of chinese models delivering completely unexpected results, like the BAIC E200 EV (2.615 units!), or the BYD e6 (1.129 units, a new personal record, after 5 years in the market).

The Nissan Leaf was the Best-Selling model in December, as it is the case during the whole year, but this time it had some real competition, having to perform its second-best-ever-month (5.976 units) in order to outrun the insane performance of the Model S, that fueled with the AWD versions, it was only the third model to reach the 5.000 threshold in one month.

Looking at the full year ranking, the first position was for the Nissan Leaf with a record 61.027 units (But it has lost 4% share regarding 2013...), followed by the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, which ended the year holding the Silver Medal by just 66 units, considering that the #3 Tesla Model S sales will be still subject to small changes in the future, the Outlander might have the #2 still in danger.

Behind them we see  two models (Volt and Prius Plug-In) losing speed, particularly the japanese, that has failed to deliver a four-digit performance for the second consecutive month

In #7 the BYD Qin continues to impress (And improve its personal record month after month), while the Renault Zoe benefited from a record-shattering performance in December to climb one position to #9, we have to go back to 2013 to find the last time that the french hatch was so high in the ranking, while the #3 in the Monthly Ranking won by the Zoe was a first for the french hatch.

Because this is a full year edition, the ranking includes cars from #11 to #20, where we can see some interesting things, like two rising stars coming from China (Zotye E20 and BAIC E200 EV), or the VW e-Up! rising in the ranking, but also some major dives, like the Volvo V60 Plug-In (From #7 to #17), the Renault Kangoo ZE (#10 to #18) or the continued fall from the Mitsubishi I-Miev, from #5 in 2012, to #12 the next year and now in #19...The I-Miev needs an urgent replacement, Mitsu.

Looking at the EV Market with the traditional segmentation, let's see who are the Best-Sellers in each Segment:

* Micro-Car - Kandi EV;

* A-Segment - VW e-Up!;

* B-Segment - BMW i3;

* C-Segment - Nissan Leaf;

* D-Segment - Ford Fusion Energi;

* E/F-Segment - Tesla Model S;

* SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV;

* MPV - Ford C-Max Energi;

* Pick-Up - Mitsubishi Minicab Miev;

* Sports Car - BMW i8. Yep, the german dream car has already outsold the Cadillac ELR...

Pl	WORLD	Dec.	2014	%	'13Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	5.976	61.027	19	1
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	2.165	31.689	10	5
3	Tesla Model S	5.498	31.623	10	4
4	Chevrolet Volt (1)	1.608	21.293	7	2
5	Toyota Prius Plug-In	915	19.018	6	3
6	BMW i3	1.810	16.052	5	20
7	BYD Qin	1.819	14.747	5	40
8	Ford Fusion Energi	805	11.719	4	9
9	Renault Zoe	2.556	11.323	4	6
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Kandi K10 (2-Seater EV) Ford C-Max Energi Chery QQ3 EV Zotye E20 Smart Fortwo ED Volkswagen e-Up! BAIC E150 / E200 EV Volvo V60 Plug-In Renault Kangoo ZE Mitsubishi I-Miev (2) BYD e6	1.079 684 50 1.497 812 369 2.615 341 583 262 1.129	10.022 8.705 7.866 7.341 5.824 5.448 5.234 5.149 4.257 3.936 3.611	3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1	N/A 8 11 N/A 13 19 24 7 10 12 17
	TOTAL	37.034	317.895

The Ambitious Looking BYD Tang

Manufacturers - Mitsubishi #3

In the Manufacturers ranking, we've got Nissan again in #1 with 20% share (It has lost 3% Share), followed from a far by Mitsubishi with 12% share and Tesla, with 10%. 

Below the Podium, there were some last minut changes, with Chevrolet surpassing Ford and reaching #4, while BMW lost not one, but two positions in one month(!), dropping to #9, to the benefit of BYD (#7) and Renault (#8), both with record months in December.

Looking below the #10 Kandi, we can see two rising powers: Zotye in #13 and BAIC in #15, both of them with Top 10 ambitions in 2014, while Volkswagen has been slowly getting closer to the Top 10, it has ended the year in #11, while down below Volvo is agonizing in #16, down 8 positions regarding last year.

Pl	WORLD	Dec.	2014	%	'13Pl
1	Nissan	6.354	63.327	20	1
2	Mitsubishi	2.506	36.670	12	3
3	Tesla	5.498	31.623	10	5
4	Chevrolet	1.739	22.509	7	2
5	Ford	1.542	22.436	7	7
6	Toyota	952	20.470	6	4
7	BYD	3.080	18.358	6	11
8	Renault	3.351	18.338	6	6
9	BMW	2.136	17.793	6	14
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Kandi Volkswagen Chery Zotye Smart BAIC Volvo Porsche Fiat Cadillac Kia	1.700 1.433 466 1.517 812 2.615 341 208 115 121 289	11.307 9.703 8.605 7.542 5.824 5.234 5.182 1.954 1.799 1.354 1.340	4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0	N/A 13 9 23 10 16 8 22 18 29 N/A

(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;
(2) - Includes Peugeot iOn and Citröen C-Zero

Forecasting is always a tricky subject, so instead of analyzing model by model, brand by brand, i've decided to have a look at each Automotive Group and their perspectives for 2015:

* Renault-Nissan - As the undisputed leader of the plug-in market, with some 220.000 units sold, making 30% of the market, there is a lot at stake with the competition launching many new models, while the Alliance has...Zero this year. Well, not quite, the renewed Zoe and the further production increase of the e-NV200/Evalia should help things, but there's two important question marks: How much will the Venucia version of the Leaf benefit from China's growth, and how high can the new Zoe go? I'm going for 95K units in 2015, up from 82K last year;

* Mitsubishi - Despite a being a major player in the Plug-In market, truth is that the Japanese carmaker is relatively small in the fishtank of Global Auto Groups, and that is starting to show, now that they finally have a hit on their hands, with the Outlander PHEV, they don't seem to have the ability to get the full profit from it, especially by entering in the largest SUV market in the World, the USA. Without it, their growth perspectives are severely lowered, while the rest of their offerings are starting to get a bit vintage...They need to increase their batteries production. Fast. And significantly. Because of this, i see some 50K units this year.

* Tesla - If Mitsu is small fish, the american brand is a just-out-of-the-shell-baby croc...A baby croc with a rock-star attitude wanting to (someday) swallow Big Whites whole in one piece, that's how ambitious they are. Fact is those large sharks (And everybody in that fishtank) are taking a close eye on it, hoping to smother it before it's too (Gigafactory) late. But enough of analogies, Tesla as the all-important Model X to launch and much relies on its shoulders, with the Model S probably stuck at making 35K this year, it will be up to the SUV to increase dramatically sales for Tesla, in this regard, timing will be essential, in order to know if Tesla reaches 70K or only 50K.

This angry-looking 2nd Gen Volt has a lot to live up to

* General Motors - With a second generation Volt coming, much is expected from it to stop the sales decline it has been experiencing since 2012, after all the american plug-in hybrid is still the second best-selling car ever on this segment, with the stupid controversial decision to euthanize the Opel Ampera, it pretty much depends on the US market to decide on the success of this car. I would go for 7.5K for Gen 1 Volt plus 25K for the Gen 2, with some additional 3K from the rest of the lineup.

* Ford - As it has been evident in the last couple of months, small range PHEV have been hit by the low price of gas, and without any major news coming in 2015, they will have to sell at discount prices if they want to keep sales at the same level of 2014. So, 23K.

* Toyota - Just like Ford, they have been hit with lowering sales, with the additional problem of an ageing car (The Prius has been here since 2010) and the general disinterest from the MotherShip, now with eyes only to its new baby, the Fuel Cell Mirai. I'm thinking 13K for the whole year. 

* BYD - If some seem to be disregarding the market, others are coming with everything they've got. Besides the continuation of the success story Qin (18K for this year), and the upcoming Tang, there are more two SUV's promised, as well as an sucessor to the e6, all in the same year! The brand is known for delaying a bit their launches but all in all, i would go for some 35K this year for BYD.

* BMW - Now that they have experimented the taste of plug-in success, they are coming back for more, now in the form of a PHEV SUV, the X5 will surely increase significantly the sales volume, the question will be: "By how much?". I would go for 5K for the X5 PHEV plus 25K for the i-branded cars.

Geely is looking to win some phat profits on the back of this tank SUV

* Geely - Hot on the heels of the Kandi 2-seater EV success, there are insiders saying that four(!) new models are expected this year, even if this doesn't comes into reality, i can see some 20K coming from Kandi. As Volvo is part of Geely, one has also to consider the impact of the new XC90 PHEV on sales, so i would go for 5K for the SUV going together with an additional 5K for the existing V60 Plug-In, making a total of 30K for the Geely Group.

* VW - The Largest of the Large Great Whites in the Auto Industry is still relatively small in the EV Segment, but as the interest slowly rises and their deep pockets are starting to be used here, the lineup is starting to grow significantly, especially on the PHEV formula, i think the Golf GTE will be a (relative) sales success and will probably hit the 10K bar, and with the help of the Passat GTE and the rest of the lineup, sales will probably double and reach 25K. 

* Daimler - While Smart has seen a small but constant uptick in sales, the new Generation Fortwo ED should help sales to increase to some 8K, but the real challenge is Mercedes, after a 2014 (way) below expectations, one wonders how far can they go with their plug-in offerings, with the all important addition of the C-Class PHEV, one can imagine Mercedes getting up to 12K this year.  

Finally, looking at the market as a whole, i would think that the market will continue to grow at a steady rate, reaching some 450K units by the end of this year.